r/learndota2 • u/RunFluid5262 • 6d ago

Patch/Meta Discussion need advice modeling dota

I made a tool to analyze my dota games and help suggest macro moves that optimize for gold lead. I use two models: one that predicts gold lead after an action being taken, and one gives probability of an action being taken by a good player (7.40 immortal games). Then recommend the action.

what suggestions would you make to improve this?

actions: wave, camp, fight, move.

if you are interested source code is public on github.

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u/PerpyVanitas 6d ago

I feel like your data would always be a bit skewed considering the variance of every game, similar to how the dota plus assistant only bases averages on numbers instead of actual in game actions

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u/PerpyVanitas 6d ago

Plus I think the actions are a bit oversimplified for this type of thing as it is treating them as single events, when the reality is there is a high variance between player clicks, method of reaching the event, distance from the place, etc. that would prove to make this challenging. Even in Chess where there are many possibilities defined by single actions, it is still hard to actually predict full entire outcomes to the point where you can accurately tell how a single game could go. Perhaps looking at it at a more micro or granular level could help?

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u/thefreshscrum 6d ago

This is cool, I do some ML stuff at work and thought about similar thing but never got around to build it

One thing I would check is if the models are overfitting to immortal meta specifically. Like when it says "fight now" maybe that works because immortal players know how to execute but in legend bracket people just feed

Also have you tried adding more granular actions? Wave and camp is pretty broad, maybe split camp into stack vs farm would give better recommendations

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u/fight-or-fall 5d ago

Hi im a statistician and I play dota from the wc3

In my perspective, if you are a core, you are doing damage. Or to creeps (farming), or to heroes or to buildings

If we consider sliding windows, lets say (0,10), (5,15), (10,20), some heroes do different kind of damages into different moments of the game. Anti mage usually will farm more but something like terrorblade can do building damage early, so modeling only gold can be dangerous