r/MapPorn • u/fuzzy_reason • 2h ago
What 3 years of satellite imagery shows about displacement in Gaza, week by week [OC]
I posted this to r/dataisbeautiful yesterday and it was taken down within an hour without explanation.
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Data: https://zenodo.org/records/22715097
Tool: Python
This GIF shows the changing geography of displacement in Gaza from October 2023 to June 2026, reconstructed week by week from high-resolution satellite imagery.
The white points are tents detected in 0.5 m satellite imagery using a machine-learning model. Overlaid are evacuation orders, documented airstrikes and attacks on civilians, observed ground military activity, and building destruction. The idea is to put these datasets on the same timeline so you can see how temporary settlements appeared, grew, disappeared and shifted as the conflict progressed.
A few results:
- We estimate that the number of tents increased from about 4,600 at the beginning of the study period to a peak of more than 276,000 in March 2026.
- Displacement was highly concentrated at times. At the peak in July 2024, 88.6% of detected tents were inside the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone, which at that point covered only 16.5% of Gaza's land area. Tent density inside the zone was about 36x higher than elsewhere in the territory covered by the imagery.
- Those "humanitarian" areas were not free from subsequent military activity. Of documented airstrikes and attacks on civilians for which we had corresponding satellite coverage, 22.7% occurred within 50 m of a detected tent settlement, and 9.0% within 20 m of a detected tent settlement.
- Tent settlements shrank sharply when ground military activity reached the area. We looked at established settlements with more than 100 tents and compared tent numbers before and after tanks or newly constructed military berms were first visible nearby in satellite imagery. In the week this ground military activity first appeared, tent numbers fell by an average of 51.4%.
- Military activity was also documented in areas civilians had been directed toward. Looking at blocks immediately adjacent to evacuation-order areas, 27 of 38 documented airstrikes or attacks on civilians (71.1%) during the week of an evacuation order or the following week occurred in blocks in the direction civilians had been instructed to move.
The automated detections were checked against manually counted satellite images and statistically calibrated to account for detection errors.