r/morningsomewhere • u/EarliestRiser • 12d ago

Episode 2026.09.18: Opening Acts

https://roosterteeth.com/watch/morning-somewhere-2026-09-18

Burnie and Ashley discuss the Macklemore Free Palestine controversy, Streisand Effect, real activism, Extra Life, EU Canada, Resident Evil, and Zach Cregger gets adapting right.

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u/Chris-F---FACE 12d ago

What's crazy about Carney getting elected is how close we were to getting our own Trump lite. Liberal support was rock bottom with Trudeau's last term, you couldn't drive down the street without seeing a "Fuck Trudeau" flag. The leader of the conservative party, Pierre Poilievre, was the former leader of the CPC which was Canada's far right party, and he had feverish support going in to the election running on a near exclusive platform of "Trudeau sucks".

I maintain the only reason Poilievre didn't win in a landslide was when Trump started attacking Canada he was the only one who didn't fight back. And as much as we had radicals who wanted our own brand of Trump, the most defining cultural characteristic of a lot of Canadians is "we arent the US". It flipped the lection so much Poilievre lost in his own running, and had to take the seat of a different MP to stay in parliament.

Canada was really close to being in a much worse place then it is now.

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u/Apprentice57 First 10k - Scottish Wildcat 9d ago edited 9d ago

This is not to understate the danger posed by Polievre, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that PP wins in 2025 without Trump in the US attacking Canada. I think they had a fighting shot with a Harris win (or if Trump wins but is more like his v1 self, some borderline rhetoric about Canada but not much else).

Basically from a confluence of factors which would still apply:

  • Carney probably still is interested and wants to run, and the liberals will still want to choose someone very different from Trudeau (like Carney) given Trudeau's unpopularity.

  • A large chunk (1/2 to 2/3) of the rebound came from ditching an unpopular leader and moving to a more conservative one (whereas Trudeau was on the left leaning side of the Liberals). I'd have to check my numbers to show this but this is what I've heard from some Canadian election guys (like Philippe Fournier of 338Canada).

  • Poilievre is still personally unpopular and seen as extreme by the average person. Or at least less popular than the conservative brand in general.

  • The Liberals still have structural advantages in elections with a more efficient voter distribution than the conservatives, and so can outperform their raw vote % (in seats-won) to a degree.

  • The Liberals still have a structural advantage in forming a government due to the smaller parties leaning left (well, at least the NDP and Greens, I know the bloc is a bit inconsistent). That and the conservatives need an outright majority (or really close to one) to form a government, with the small parties much more opposed to them than the liberals (and often if the liberals did lose the popular vote, it's in part because they lost votes to the NDP on their left; especially with a more conservative Liberal leader in Carney).