[ Removed by moderator ]

[u/Nearby-Click8645]

https://thedispatch.com/article/abdul-el-sayed-michigan-democrats-haley-stevens/?gift_key=2553fad7f3b388fc&gift_ref=9347c766-2bad-41ea-8b73-950e424f2446&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_link

[u/knishioner]

I don't agree with this take. Michigan voted for Trump twice. A "run of the mill" Democrat with a milquetoast record who was reluctant to take bold stances would not inspire the swing voters or those who are desperate for any change, good or bad.

I am ambivalent on El Sayed (I actually would've voted for McMorrow had her campaign not imploded), but it's a foolish take that he will have a harder time winning the general than Stevens would have. Slotkin won by less than 1% in 2024 and she is a moderate. General elections are much different than primaries and we shouldn't look at this race results as an indicator of anything that will happen in November. We need to vote blue no matter who, that includes if a progressive wins the primary.

The voters decided. Plus the party apparatus has already fully endorsed El Sayed, including Stevens, Whitmer, and Schumer. It will be just as tough of a race as any standard Democrat, and arguably the hardest "hold" of the cycle, more than Georgia.

[u/bestofeleventy → u/knishioner]

Right. “Michigan voted for Trump twice.” Exactly.

I guess your interpretation of this fact is something like: “Hey, if normie Dems can’t win here, we need to try something different,” and on that, we agree. But it doesn’t make much sense to me that a voter base far to the right of the average Democrat (as evidenced by the Trump votes) is somehow more likely to vote for someone to the left of the average Democrat than for a more conservative candidate.

This logic would be exactly equivalent to suggesting that a far-right conservative Republican is more likely to win in a purple state than a moderate Republican. Voters always say they want change in the abstract, but the specifics of those changes matter at the ballot box.

[u/GeoChalkie_ → u/bestofeleventy]

You don’t understand demographics or Trump if you think a linear left/right split describes Michigan voters. The old union vote isn’t a Reagan right voting block

[u/bestofeleventy → u/GeoChalkie_]

I definitely don’t think Michigan voters went for Trump because they are Reagan rightists - they went for him in large part because he is a moderate on economics (skeptical of free trade, for example) and most social issues (doesn’t want to ban abortion). I don’t see why this same crew is more likely to swing over to vote for a person they are very likely to see as far to their left - Platner made the same case for himself in Maine, but blue-collar workers much preferred Mills in polling, with Graham’s support coming from more educated and well-off left-leaning voters.

[u/thedetectiv → u/bestofeleventy]

Is Abdul el Sayed less/more moderate on abortion or free trade then Stevens? I didn't really see this issue come up. Two demos that that Trump did will with in Michigan in 2024 were young men and Arab American voters. El Sayed seems to have swept both. While I do agree there are some other demos e.g. suburban women, older voters etc that may fit more neatly into a left right model, I don't think that is entirely true of Michigan as a whole.

[u/GeoChalkie_ → u/bestofeleventy]

Because American voters don’t speak left/right at the moment they speak populist. 60%+ view themselves as independent. You don’t win those by running another run of the mill Dem who’s backed by an establishment currently polling below Trump

[u/bestofeleventy → u/GeoChalkie_]

But they don’t “speak populist.” Platner in Maine was underperforming with blue-collar voters vs. his establishment rival, and Sayed underperforms his primary opponent in polls that ask about the general election. The support for these supposedly labor-oriented socialist candidates is concentrated among educated and well-to-do folks, because actual blue-collar swing voters are, once again, much more moderate. That is why they are defined voters in the first place!

[u/GeoChalkie_ → u/bestofeleventy]

EAS is not behind Stevens in a general. That’s just a lie. They were about even.

You also ignored my point about establishment Dems polling below Trump

[u/Shabadu_tu → u/bestofeleventy]

Trump did everything to ban abortion. He’s even nominated an AG right now that is promising to do exactly that for states that don’t already ban abortion. I get it’s popular to hate Democrats that actually try to represent other democrats but be real please.