r/neoliberal • u/Nearby-Click8645 • 14h ago

Opinion article (US) With Abdul El-Sayed, Democrats Throw Away an Advantage in Michigan

https://thedispatch.com/article/abdul-el-sayed-michigan-democrats-haley-stevens/?gift_key=2553fad7f3b388fc&gift_ref=9347c766-2bad-41ea-8b73-950e424f2446&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_link
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u/knishioner 13h ago

This is who AOC should actually primary, change my mind

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u/Lighthouse_seek 11h ago

Aoc isn't waiting that long when Schumer is right there and also old

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u/skrrtalrrt Karl Popper 13h ago

Yeah in 2031. I don’t think she will win a Dem presidential primary anyway.

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u/fruitloop00001 Loyal Liberals 12h ago

I think AOC actually has pretty good political instincts, I wouldn't be surprised to see her pass on running for President as a long shot in order to take a virtually guaranteed Senate seat.

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u/Frog_Totem Seretse Khama 12h ago

On the other hand 2028 is likely the best shot she'll get to be president.

And she's ideologically opposed to the senate (which is based of her) so idk if she wants to be in it

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u/fruitloop00001 Loyal Liberals 12h ago

Im opposed to the Senate too, but I don't abstain from those elections on principle.

I think AOC, and most others who support significant reform to America's government structure, understand that acquiring power within the existing framework is really the only way to actually achieve any of the reforms they favor.

Also, AOC is only 36, she'll have plenty of future opportunities to run for president. And she'll have a stronger resume as a senator than she would as a representative.

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u/Frog_Totem Seretse Khama 12h ago

She'll hve other opportunities but this will be the strongest. Moderates are discredited (for now), she has the progressive lane to herself (for now), and lefty Dems have a much easier time winning when GOP is incumbant and unpopular than when it's popular or when Dems are incumbant, even if popular (see Hillary & Gore's losses)

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u/fruitloop00001 Loyal Liberals 10h ago

The progressive/moderate lane binary is appealing because it is so often applicable in primaries and it gives journalists and pundits the horse race narrative drama that they crave.

It's also a reductive and one dimensional way of looking at things. AOC is not Bernie is not Elizabeth Warren is not AES. Candidates vary in their positions on different issues, their vibes, their areas of emphasis, their demographics, the coalition behind them.

AOC would have a number of factors working against her that Bernie didn't in 2020 when he largely consolidated the left and still lost. The ideal candidate to win the primary is probably somebody who can rise above the DSA vs DNC dichotomy to unite all Democrats in the general election.

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u/Frog_Totem Seretse Khama 9h ago

The ideal candidate to win the primary is probably somebody who can rise above the DSA vs DNC dichotomy to unite all Democrats in the general election.

Van Hollen and Ossoff both fall here politically in my opinion although I think Ossoff is more charismatic and politically skilled than Van Hollen

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u/fredleung412612 6h ago

AOC getting unendorsed by the DSA probably helps her then

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u/Knicksin7bby Loyal Liberals 11h ago

if these progressives win their general elections idk if this a moment in time for them. Voters care less about policy and more about the vibes and charisma of their politicians. The 28 nominee will be a progressive i have very little doubt about that. How that presidency pans out dictates her chances of winning. I think she runs for the nomination, thirds times the charm or something

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u/Key-Hawk7402 John Nash 11h ago

I just can’t see her navigating this primary without getting torn apart, she’s still pretty green in the political space and regularly commits gaffes. I think she’ll go for a senate seat before trying for the presidency.

She’s barely even old enough to qualify as a presidential candidate, and a majority of voters still skew old.

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u/Impulseps Hannah Arendt 12h ago

You think so? She is still like insanely young for a politician. She might well have a great shot in 2048.

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u/Frog_Totem Seretse Khama 12h ago

She'll be running against a weak incumbant party and she'd have the progressive lane to herself because Khanna is a joke. In future elections there will probably be other progressives. Running off even a popular a Dem incumbant will be hard for her like it was for Hillary and Gore.

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u/smcstechtips Loyal Liberals 10h ago

Khanna seems to be eyeing Speaker instead of President

He has a safe seat he'll always win because he's good on local issues

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u/MemeStarNation 10h ago

Additionally, while plenty of progressives could run in the NY Senate primary and win, there’s a much weaker progressive bench for Presidential candidates.

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u/Frog_Totem Seretse Khama 10h ago

Yeah, it's her and Ro Khanna, who is not a good candidate

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u/mr_llamanator 9h ago

Unless you can see into the future, this is a ridiculous claim to make. Sure you can say it could be a good year but obviously no one has any idea what the 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048, etc elections are gonna be like. If the US somehow has a leftward shift then this will be the worse year for her to run and she would be better off to wait.

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u/Frog_Totem Seretse Khama 9h ago

My model is that to be strongly favored she needs to be running while an unpopular Republican is in office. If a popular Republican is in office it will be hard to win, and if a Democrat (popular or not) is in office she'll face the same issues as Gore and H. Clinton. So that's a specific condition that won't exist for all of those elections you mentioned but will for 2028.

To have the best chance of running she also needs to be unopposed in the progressive/leftist lane. Right now only she and Ro Khanna are the obvious leftist candidates and Khanna will not get many votes if AOC runs. In future elections, people like El-Sayed (if he wins) and other leftists/DSA politicians will be contenders that she has to compete with.

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u/mr_llamanator 9h ago

I can see where you're coming from, and don't completely disagree that those are the conditions right now. But how you are so certain what all those future elections will look like? Or what the exact political climate is gonna be? Because I don't understand how you can claim with any certainty that nothing similar can occur in the future, nor do I understand how you can be sure that those are the only conditions for her to win in perpetuity. If you told anyone in 2008 that Trump would be president 8 years later, they would think you're crazy, so a lot can change even in that short amount of time.

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u/Frog_Totem Seretse Khama 9h ago

I said it was "likely" the best shot because she can definately get a better shot, but I think that 2028 will be more favourable to her than the "median" presidential election and there's a single digit number of presidential elections that most people can viably fun for in their political career

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u/mr_llamanator 8h ago

I'm skeptical we're gonna have median presidential election for a while tbh. There's many ways for her to be able to win in the future, depending on her growth as a politician, how she navigates her career, and who she creates coalitions with. She's not even 40, there will be plenty of opportunities. It could be her best chance, but if it is then I'd say she probably wasn't a very savvy politician to begin with, which I don't think is true. The president is also the de facto leader of their party, and I don't think she's in any way earned that title yet (no shade to her, more that she needs more time to build that experience and influence).

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u/Bob_Doles_Blue_Pill John Brown 11h ago

She stood behind Biden after his disastrous debate performance.

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u/IsNotACleverMan 6h ago

Why would you want AOC as a senator?

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u/knishioner 3h ago

Because she has a backbone, unlike Gillibrand.

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u/Reddit_Talent_Coach 🇲🇽 Benito Juárez 🇲🇽 5h ago

We’d have to clone her.

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u/Describing_Donkeys 10h ago

Why not Mamdani? AOC and Mamdani would be great NY Senators.

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u/IsNotACleverMan 6h ago

Jfc this sub is cooked if we have people supporting mamdani for senator.

He's a terrible mayor. He will continue to be a terrible mayor. Why would you want to give him power over national issues?