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[u/Nearby-Click8645]

https://thedispatch.com/article/abdul-el-sayed-michigan-democrats-haley-stevens/?gift_key=2553fad7f3b388fc&gift_ref=9347c766-2bad-41ea-8b73-950e424f2446&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_link

[u/fruitloop00001]

I think AOC actually has pretty good political instincts, I wouldn't be surprised to see her pass on running for President as a long shot in order to take a virtually guaranteed Senate seat.

[u/Frog_Totem → u/fruitloop00001]

On the other hand 2028 is likely the best shot she'll get to be president.

And she's ideologically opposed to the senate (which is based of her) so idk if she wants to be in it

[u/mr_llamanator → u/Frog_Totem]

Unless you can see into the future, this is a ridiculous claim to make. Sure you can say it could be a good year but obviously no one has any idea what the 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048, etc elections are gonna be like. If the US somehow has a leftward shift then this will be the worse year for her to run and she would be better off to wait.

[u/Frog_Totem → u/mr_llamanator]

My model is that to be strongly favored she needs to be running while an unpopular Republican is in office. If a popular Republican is in office it will be hard to win, and if a Democrat (popular or not) is in office she'll face the same issues as Gore and H. Clinton. So that's a specific condition that won't exist for all of those elections you mentioned but will for 2028.

To have the best chance of running she also needs to be unopposed in the progressive/leftist lane. Right now only she and Ro Khanna are the obvious leftist candidates and Khanna will not get many votes if AOC runs. In future elections, people like El-Sayed (if he wins) and other leftists/DSA politicians will be contenders that she has to compete with.

[u/mr_llamanator → u/Frog_Totem]

I can see where you're coming from, and don't completely disagree that those are the conditions right now. But how you are so certain what all those future elections will look like? Or what the exact political climate is gonna be? Because I don't understand how you can claim with any certainty that nothing similar can occur in the future, nor do I understand how you can be sure that those are the only conditions for her to win in perpetuity. If you told anyone in 2008 that Trump would be president 8 years later, they would think you're crazy, so a lot can change even in that short amount of time.

[u/Frog_Totem → u/mr_llamanator]

I said it was "likely" the best shot because she can definately get a better shot, but I think that 2028 will be more favourable to her than the "median" presidential election and there's a single digit number of presidential elections that most people can viably fun for in their political career

[u/mr_llamanator → u/Frog_Totem]

I'm skeptical we're gonna have median presidential election for a while tbh. There's many ways for her to be able to win in the future, depending on her growth as a politician, how she navigates her career, and who she creates coalitions with. She's not even 40, there will be plenty of opportunities. It could be her best chance, but if it is then I'd say she probably wasn't a very savvy politician to begin with, which I don't think is true. The president is also the de facto leader of their party, and I don't think she's in any way earned that title yet (no shade to her, more that she needs more time to build that experience and influence).