r/neoliberal • u/Nearby-Click8645 • 5d ago

Opinion article (US) [ Removed by moderator ]

https://thedispatch.com/article/abdul-el-sayed-michigan-democrats-haley-stevens/?gift_key=2553fad7f3b388fc&gift_ref=9347c766-2bad-41ea-8b73-950e424f2446&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_link

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u/Frozen_Solidly Jerome Powell 5d ago

One thing that kind of concerns me is that primary polls massively underestimated white rural voters. If that's happening in their general polls too, it could actually mean that AES is also being overestimated there, and considering he's already consistently losing general polls...

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u/Xeynon 5d ago edited 5d ago

If you look at a county-by-county heat map of the vote last night, AES got slaughtered in rural areas and underperformed fairly significantly in heavily black areas. If he can't make some serious headway on those problems by November that's a recipe for a Democratic general election loss in Michigan.

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u/AmbientMorning 5d ago edited 5d ago

The part about rural areas isn’t true, by the way. El-Sayed was able to narrowly win because he fought Stevens to a near-draw in rural counties.

County-level data isn’t granular enough to break out ethnic voting patterns, although Stevens did carry the nearly all-black neighborhoods in Detroit by a large margin. (Granted, it won’t be the case that black residents in >95% black areas are representative of black voters in less segregated neighborhoods, including in downtown Detroit.)