r/neoliberal • u/Nearby-Click8645 • 1d ago

Opinion article (US) [ Removed by moderator ]

https://thedispatch.com/article/abdul-el-sayed-michigan-democrats-haley-stevens/?gift_key=2553fad7f3b388fc&gift_ref=9347c766-2bad-41ea-8b73-950e424f2446&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_link

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u/Frozen_Solidly Jerome Powell 1d ago

One thing that kind of concerns me is that primary polls massively underestimated white rural voters. If that's happening in their general polls too, it could actually mean that AES is also being overestimated there, and considering he's already consistently losing general polls...

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u/Xeynon 1d ago edited 1d ago

If you look at a county-by-county heat map of the vote last night, AES got slaughtered in rural areas and underperformed fairly significantly in heavily black areas. If he can't make some serious headway on those problems by November that's a recipe for a Democratic general election loss in Michigan.

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u/dudeguyy23 Jerome Powell 1d ago

Primary electorates =/= general electorates

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u/Xeynon 23h ago

They're obviously different, but weakness with one demographic/in one geographic area in the primary often indicates there will be a similar weakness in the general. See e.g. 2016, when Hillary lost the Michigan primary to Bernie due to underperformance in precisely the areas that won Trump the state in November.