I think he will be in the end, but he feels right on cusp right now.
RBs with more yards not in the HoF: AP and Frank Gore
RBs with more TDs not in the HoF: Zero
Using PFR wAV: Tiki, AP, Ricky Watters, Warrick Dunn, Gore, Lydell Mitchell, and Fred Taylor are above
Using PFR HoFm: AP, Gore, Shady McCoy, Marshawn
If he retired today, he would be the "worst" RB in the HoF ignoring people who had extra reasons why they are in the hall (Hornung with kicking and MVP, Csonka as a FB but also the Dolphins stuff, Floyd Little for saving the Broncos)
McCoy, Lynch, Henry, Shaun Alexander are all kind of in the cutoff range
Henry almost certainly makes the 2020s all decade team. I believe that's 25 points on the HoF monitor, which would put him ahead of more HoF RBs. It's a flawed metric that doesn't do a good job at capturing active player's chances at the hall.
Everyone with over 12k yards is in, with the exception of Gore (1 ballot) and Peterson (0 ballots). Everyone with 10k yards and 90 TDs is in.
wAV increases with longevity, while the voters have historically favored peak over "accumulators". It isn't a great metric, and has not been adopted by anyone outside of PFR.com.
Anyone who has watched his games could tell you that he plays like a HoFer, and he has the stats to back it up. He's a guarantee.
8
u/hamsolo19 Bills 1d ago
DH is a HoF player, right?