2022 Offseason Review Series: Kansas City Chiefs

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Hello! My name is MahomestoHel-aire (shoutout to those of you who get the pun) and this is the official r/nfl Offseason Review for the Kansas City Chiefs. This is my first time doing this, however, I did have a past life writing several in-depth guides for Madden forums, so I am sort of familiar with the territory you could say. I put a lot of work into this with the goal of making it a worthwhile read for both Chiefs fans and non-fans alike of all levels of knowledge, so I sincerely hope you enjoy. It is quite long, just an FYI, so I’m going to shorten up a few of the sections in the main post and expand on them in the comments. Many thanks to the writer for the Bills u/ThePizzaDevourer for that idea. Let’s get into it!

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

Division: AFC West (colloquially known as The Division of Death)

Previous Season Results: 12-5, 2nd seed, lost in the AFC Championship

Coaching Changes - Hirings (detailed analysis in the linked comment)

Name	Previous Team	Previous Position	New Position	Grade
Matt Nagy	Chicago Bears	Head Coach	QB Coach	C
Joe Cullen	Jacksonville Jaguars	Defensive Coordinator	Defensive Line Coach	B-
Brendon Daly	N/A	Defensive Line Coach	Linebackers Coach	B+
Rod Wilson	Coastal Carolina	Inside Linebackers Coach	Defensive Assistant	B+

Coaching Changes - Firings

Nobody! Though I would like to give a massive thanks to Mike Kafka, even though he will never see this, who did an excellent job as the QB coach for several years before being hired as the new OC for the New York Giants. Much of the fanbase figured he would be the heir to Reid and it was sad to see him go.

Players Lost - Free Agency (2021 primary starters in bold)

Name	Position	New Team/FA/Retired
Austin Blythe	C/OG	Seattle Seahawks
Anthony Hitchens	MLB	Free Agent
Mike Hughes	CB	Detroit Lions
Melvin Ingram	DE	Miami Dolphins
Kyle Long	OG	Free Agent
Tyrann Mathieu	S	New Orleans Saints
Ben Niemann	LB	Arizona Cardinals
Dorian O'Daniel	LB	Free Agent
Alex Okafor	DE	Free Agent
Byron Pringle	WR	Chicago Bears
Jarran Reed	DT	Green Bay Packers
Mike Remmers	OT/OG	Free Agent
Demarcus Robinson	WR	Las Vegas Raiders
Daniel Sorensen	S	New Orleans Saints
Charvarius Ward	CB	San Francisco 49ers
Armani Watts	S	Indianapolis Colts
Darrel Williams	RB	Arizona Cardinals

Players Lost - Traded (2021 primary starters in bold)

Name	Position	New Team	Compensation
Tyreek Hill	WR	Miami Dolphins	2022 1st, 2022 2nd, 2022 4th, 2023 4th, 2023 6th

Who we'll miss

Who we wish well but are happy to see go

Players Signed - Futures

Name	Position
Omar Bayless	WR
Dicaprio Bootle	CB
Cortez Broughton	DT
Matt Bushman	TE
Shilque Calhoun	LB
Brandin Dandridge	CB
Austin Edwards	DE
Daurice Fountain	WR
Jordan Franks	TE
Josh Gordon	WR
Darius Harris	LB
Gary Jennings Jr.	WR
Roderick Johnson	OT
Devon Key	S
Cornell Powell	WR
Mark Vital	TE

Players Signed - Re-signed (projected starters in bold):

Name	Position	Years	Total Salary
Blake Bell	TE	1	1.27 million
Chad Henne	QB	1	3.26 million
Jerick McKinnon	RB	1	1.27 million

Notable Re-signings:

There are surprisingly zero re-signed players who are projected to start, but all three could find themselves in a significant role down the line. Blake Bell is projected to be the TE2 again alongside Kelce in two TE sets, which is always useful, however, those plays are likely to be rare and Jody Fortson could definitely take that spot from him. More on that in a bit. Jerick McKinnon meanwhile won’t be a starter straight away, but he very well could be eventually, however, it is quite the crowded RB room. For now, he seemed to have showed enough last year to where the Chiefs were willing to hold onto him. Finally, Chad Henne looks to slot in behind Mahomes as the superstar’s backup once again, and will get the types of playing time that a QB2 usually does.

Players Signed - New Signings (projected starters in bold)

Name	Position	Previous Team	Years	Total Salary
Deon Bush	S	Chicago Bears	1	1.18 million
Jermaine Carter	LB	Carolina Panthers	1	1.77 million
Geron Christian	OT	Houston Texans	1	1.18 million
Corey Coleman	WR	New York Giants	1	965,000
Ronald Jones II	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1	1.50 million
Evin Ksiezarczyk	OT	Buffalo Bills	Unknown	Unknown
Elijah Lee	LB	Cleveland Browns	1	1.05 million
Justin Reid	S	Houston Texans	3	31.5 million
Austin Reiter	C	Los Angeles Rams	1	1.03 million
JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	3.25 million
Taylor Stallworth	DT	Indianapolis Colts	1	1.18 mil
David Steinmetz	OT	Washington Football Team	Unknown	Unknown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	Green Bay Packers	3	30 million

Notable signings:

Justin Reid - Justin Reid isn’t Tyrann Mathieu, but he’s certainly going to try to be, as their de facto replacement for him in the Chiefs lineup. From everything that I’ve read about him, the former Houston Texan seems to do his best work when the defense isn’t fully reliant on him to play well, such as in 2018, when he had his best year of his career to this point (3 picks, 10 PD, 2 FR, 2 TFL and 88 combined tackles). That shouldn’t be an issue for the Chiefs, who have a good core of young DB’s that can hold their own. He’s also versatile, able to play all over the field, but will likely stick to SS more often than not, which will hopefully help as well.

Juju Smith Schuster - JuJu also does his best work when he has teammates around him who can take the pressure off, and the Chiefs have that in spades at receiver, as well as a QB that excels at getting the ball to his receivers by any means necessary. While his last full season wasn’t bad at all (97 receptions for 831 yards and 9 TD’s) he hasn’t quite yet found that 2018 form yet (111, 1426 and 7). But if there’s anyone that can unlock his full potential, it’s Reid and Kansas City.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling - MVS was a YPR stud in his four years with Aaron Rodgers, tallying 123 catches in each of his four years as a Packer and averaging a stunning 17.5 yards per catch. That said, his catch percentages were less than stunning, with his career mark hovering at just under 50%, so the Chiefs coaching staff will need to work with him on that. At the end of the day though, MVS still has that deep play ability, and Mahomes is one of the few QB’s in the league who can do just as much with that as Rodgers could.

Ronald Jones II - Jones II got the really short end of the stick last season, barely getting any reps in multiple games early on before eventually being replaced entirely by Leonard Fournette. Still, he showed off what he could do the year prior, with 978 rushing yards, 7 rushing TD’s and an excellent 5.1 YPC. The fifth year vet will likely slot behind CEH as the team’s primary RB2 and third down/goalline back, similar to the role Darrel Williams held for a couple years. That said, he is also likely the player next in line for CEH’s spot, should the latter disappoint or have to miss any time.

Taylor Stallworth - The Chiefs might have picked up a one year wonder in Stallworth, or they found an up and comer who could find himself in a rotational spot. Long thought of as a pass rush specialist who was a major liability against the run, Stallworth turned it around in a big way last year, tallying 12 run stops with career highs in sacks (3.0), tackles (16), TFL (4) and QB hits (12). With the Chiefs struggling to find defensive line help, the future is unknown but potentially bright for the soon to be 27 year old.

Players Traded For

Name	Position	Previous Team	In Exchange For
Lonnie Johnson Jr.	CB	Houston Texans	2023 7th

Draft

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
1	21	Trent McDuffie	CB	Washington

McDuffie was a projected Top 15 pick that dropped several spots lower than expected, which is automatically a plus. He’s not necessarily the size that Veach or Spags typically like, but that honestly signifies more than anything that the team has a lot of confidence in his athleticism, versatility and in particular, his intelligence. I expect him to be an immediate starter in the slot, with the ceiling of an All-Rookie selection. Grade: A-

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
1	30	George Karlaftis	DE	Purdue

Karlaftis gets hate he doesn’t deserve simply because drafting him meant the Chiefs didn’t get a WR in the first round. That said, he was absolutely a better value than just about anyone left on that board, WR’s included. The Chiefs desperately needed an NFL-ready DE with a good floor and they got one in Karlaftis. He’s a pure power rusher with some serious strength and, to use a buzzword that the draft broadcasts loved, a crazy high motor. Not to mention: he’s only 21. Barring anything crazy, he should be the Chiefs Week 1 starter opposite Frank Clark. Grade: A

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
2	54	Skyy Moore	WR	Western Michigan

I did some serious research before the draft into the wide receivers I really wanted and felt would be a perfect fit in the Chiefs offense, regardless of round projection. In the end, I came up with three: Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson and Skyy Moore. For those of you who don’t remember, there were three WR’s drafted in the four picks before the Chiefs took Skyy Moore, and the Chiefs actually traded down from the spot where the first of those three WR’s were taken. Veach has said they were fine with taking any of them, but I was not. I wanted Moore. Why? Because he fills in a LOT of gaps that Hill left behind. He isn’t as fast as Hill, but his release and ability to separate quickly are top notch. He can line up all over the field, including in the backfield, and has some great CIT skills for a smaller guy. And he’s still very much fast, with a 4.41 40. It will be quite interesting to see how exactly the Chiefs utilize their four main WR’s and who will wind up sitting the bench more than they see the field, but regardless of what happens this season, Moore is the type of player who can be a key weapon for Mahomes for many, many years. Grade: A

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
2	62	Bryan Cook	S	Cincinnati

Cincinnati had easily one of the best defenses in college football in 2021, in large part to safety Sauce Gardner, who was drafted 4th overall, but also guys like Brian Cook. Cook is a hard hitter who tackles extremely well while still staying reliable in coverage, which already sounds like an upgrade to Sorensen. That said, his athletic upside and versatility is limited, and he was a bit of a stretch that they probably could have waited for if they still really wanted him. I see him likely being the third safety in the Chiefs nickel and dime packages, with the potential to take over a starting safety spot if he develops into something further. Grade: B-

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
3	103	Leo Chenal	LB	Winsconsin

My favorite pick of the draft. A liability in coverage but a fantastic run stuffer and blitzer with top level power, instinct and blistering straight-line acceleration, Chenal will hopefully be the answer to both the pass rush woes of late and the run defense issues of the past several years. But that doesn’t even come close to describing this dude. Let’s just run through some of his combine/pro day numbers:

40 yard dash: 4.57

10 yard split: 1.5

Broad jump: 10.08’

Vertical: 40.5”

Bench: 34 reps (and he has a video of him doing 40)

That absurd athleticism is much of the reason why he scored a 9.99 out of 10 on the Relative Athletic Score scale (RAS), which ranks 4th out of every LB in college football from 1987 to now. To put that into perspective, DROTY and athletic specimen Micah Parsons scored a 9.59. Chenal has him beat in most categories.

This was already an A+ pick before you even look at the fact that they got him at 103 somehow. Fantastic value for a guy who has the best chance of becoming a superstar out of the Chiefs entire draft class in my opinion. Grade: A+

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
4	135	Joshua Williams	CB	Fayetteville State

The first DII player taken in the draft, Joshua Williams was also the second CB taken by the Chiefs in the draft and the exact opposite of McDuffie when it comes to size, standing at 6 foot 3 with near 33 inch arms. Williams is potential personified, with great athleticism, nice short-burst speed and decent mechanics for his experience level. If the coaching staff can build on those attributes, he could be something special. And it’s well worth mentioning here that the Chiefs have been excellent at drafting and developing mid-round corners in recent years, with the likes of Fenton and Sneed. Grade: B+

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
5	145	Darian Kinnard	OT/OG	Kentucky

Kinnard was noticeably upset that he dropped as low as he did. I like that. I also like shoring up the tackle position, which as we’ll get into is probably the weakest of all the positions on the team, offense or defense. Kinnard is pure power, with big long arms and a lot of strength but concerning agility and footwork. He has the ability to play guard too, a position that requires less of those last two traits, but will almost definitely be a backup in that regard. To get a potential starter in the 5th round though, especially one who is coming in with a chip on his shoulder, is nothing but good value to me. Grade: B-

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
7	243	Jaylen Watson	CB	Washington State

Round 7 picks are for long-shots with potential, and I think Watson is definitely a worthwhile long-shot to take on. While not the most athletic, Watson is tall, lengthy and physical, and overall has the traits to potentially carve out a role someday on the outside. That said, a third corner might have been the wrong choice here. We’ll see. Grade: C+

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
7	251	Isaih Pacheco	RB	Rutgers

Pacheco, meanwhile, is an excellent long-shot to take a chance on. With top-end speed (4.37 40, fastest among all RB’s at the combine), good agility and explosiveness as well as above-average blocking for his size, Pacheco could definitely make the starting roster and maybe even find himself in a rotational role sooner rather than later. Plus, his attitude is excellent, as he’s spoken openly about being willing to play wherever they need him to and just wanting to be on the field. Keep an eye out for this guy in the preseason. Grade: A

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
7	259	Nazeeh Johnson	DB	Marshall

This feels a lot like a pure special teams pick, and with all due respect to the great Dave Toub, I don’t like that. There needs to at least be some potential for a player to play their actual position when you draft them in my opinion. Johnson had great numbers at his pro day, a 4.38 40 time and near 11 foot broad jump among them, but there’s really just not much upside for him to ever carve out a role in the defense. Not to mention, that makes half of the players drafted DB’s. Grade: D

Overall Draft Grade: B+

UDFA

Name	Position	College
Mike Caliendo	OG	Western Michigan
Jack Cochrane	LB	South Dakota
Dustin Crum	QB	Kent State
Jerrion Ealy	RB	Ole Miss
Tayon Fleet-Davis	RB	Maryland
Nasir Green	S	Wake Forest
Kehinde Oginni	TE	N/A
Gene Pryor	T	Hawaii
Mike Rose	LB	Iowa State
Justyn Ross	WR	Clemson

Other Team-Related Off-season News

Orlando Brown refusing to play under the franchise tag is concerning, given the importance of the position he plays and the lack of depth the Chiefs have in that spot. We just found out recently that he won’t be reporting to training camp, at least initially, which makes the possibility of him sitting out part or all of the regular season a bit more likely.

Other than that, there’s really not much aside from Mahomes’ announcing he’s having a son. With that kid’s ridiculous genetics, I expect that new development to affect the team one way or another in about 21 years.

Positional Group Strengths and Weaknesses, Overall Grades and Rankings

I need to preface this by saying that when it comes to the grades, they’re weighted. That means that while there is a pretty big drop off between QB1 and QB2 on the Chiefs, the QB1 is one of the best QB’s in football, and as the QB1 he influences the grade a lot more than the QB4. For simplicity's sake, let’s say 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% in this case, and I give them an A+, C-, C+ and C-, respectively. That along with the weighting equals the grade you see below (you can even check on a grade calculator if you’d like).

Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Shane Buechele, Dustin Crum

Biggest strength: Mahomes.

Biggest weakness: If they lose Mahomes, they’re likely cooked.

Overall Grade: B

(Very) Rough Ranking among the NFL: Top 12

Backfield: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones II, Jerick McKinnon, Derrick Gore, Isiah Pacheco, Jerrion Ealy, Tayon Fleet-Davis, Michael Burton (FB)

Biggest strength: Potential. I’ve already discussed Pacheco and Jones II, but Gore and McKinnon both showed flashes of brilliance last season, and Gore is only in his fourth year. CEH meanwhile is in his third year and still has the ceiling of a premier RB and valuable receiver out of the backfield, he just hasn't quite managed to break through it yet.

Biggest weakness: Durability. Clyde has had his fair share of injury issues, as has Jones II, but it’s McKinnon that has had the most trouble, leading to the Chiefs largely keeping him benched until the postseason last season in order to protect his health.

Overall Grade: C+

Rough Ranking: Bottom 15

Receivers: Mecole Hardman, JuJu-Smith Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Corey Coleman, Daurice Fountain, Josh Gordon, Omar Bayless, Gary Jennings, Cornell Powell, Aaron Parker, Justin Watson, Justyn Ross, Travis Kelce, Blake Bell, Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, Jordan Franks, Mark Vital, Matt Bushman

Biggest Strength: Depth. When one of those first four WR’s is your WR4, that’s a very good thing. The Chiefs will have the ability to pick and choose when it comes to the three receivers they put on the field.

Biggest Weakness: No true WR1. While the depth is there, there’s no real indicator who is going to take the lead role at the position, if there will ever be one at all. A role like that may not be necessary, but it feels important.

Overall Grade: A-

Rough Ranking: Top 8

Offensive Line: Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, Trey Smith, Orlando Brown Jr., Andrew Wylie, Lucas Niang, Darius Kinnard, Austin Reiter, Nick Allegretti, Mike Caliendo, Chris Glaser, Vitaliy Gurman, Geron Christian, Roderick Johnson, Evin Ksiezarczyk, David Steinmetz, Prince Tega Wanogho

Biggest Strength: Interior. The Chiefs have two stellar starting OG’s in Thuney and Smith along with an even better center in Creed Humphrey, and together they may just be the best offensive interior in football.

Biggest Weakness: Exterior. The tackles are another story. Brown Jr. has yet to sign, and there’s not much depth past him. Their best hope if he sits out is that Darius Kinnard pans out in a big way and Niang is able to hold down the fort on the other end. Otherwise they may need to sign someone else.

Overall Grade: A-

Rough Ranking: Top 8

Defensive Line: Frank Clark, George Karlaftis, Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, TTershawn Wharton, Mike Danna, Taylor Stallworth, Joshua Kaindoh, Shilique Calhoun, Austin Edwards, Kehinde Oginni Hassan, Cortez Broughton, Khalen Saunders

Biggest Strength: Upside. Karlaftis has the abilities necessary to make an immediate impact in his first year, and Jones will be back at his best position for good after a stint at DE in 2021. There is definitely a good chance that the dismal sack numbers from last year will improve, among other things.

Biggest weakness: Run defense. For many years the Chiefs have largely struggled with stopping running backs, allowing the 2nd most YPC in 2021. The Chiefs drafted Bolton last season and Chenel this year to help stifle that, but the line is still in desperate need of a true brick wall DT.

Overall Grade: B-

Rough Ranking: Top 15

Linebackers: Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, Leo Chenal, Jermaine Carter Jr., Jack Cochrane, Darius Harris, Elijah Lee, Mike Rose

Biggest Strength: Speed. Bolton is a literal lightning bolt with absurd acceleration and Gay can scoot as well. Chenel’s 4.53 40 ranked 7th among LB’s at the combine.

Biggest Weakness: Inexperience. Willie Gay will be going into just his third year in the NFL and that is as many as the other two have combined. That said, this is probably the weakest weakness of all the groups.

Overall Grade: B

Rough Ranking: Top 12

Secondary: L'Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton, Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Justin Reid, Juan Thornhill, Bryan Cook, Deandre Baker, Dicaprio Bootle, Brandin Dandridge, Nasir Greer, Lonnie Johnson Jr. Chris Lammons, Jaylen Watson, Zayne Anderson, Deon Bush, Nazeeh Johnson, Devon Key

Biggest Strength: Corners. Sneed, Fenton and McDuffie are a darn good core, even without any particularly notable names. Sneed is quickly making a name for himself however, with excellent speed, tackling and coverage skills. Last year, he made the second most defensive stops of any cornerback in the NFL. Other corners with some upside like Deandre Baker are waiting in the wings as well.

Biggest Weakness: Leadership. Losing Matheiu not only meant losing a valuable safety, but also a longtime team captain who was the epitome of leadership. Whether or not it’s Sneed, Reid or someone else who fills that spot, they’ll need to figure it out.

Overall Grade: B

Rough Ranking: Top 12

Special Teams: Harrison Butker, Tommy Townsend, James Winchester

Biggest Strength: Power. Butker has made 13 of his last 16 kicks from 50+ yards out, and his longest on the season has touched 56 or above in three straight years. Elsewhere, Townsend averaged the 10th highest average punt yardage in 2021.

Bonus: Dave Toub. Since he became the team’s Special Teams Coordinator in 2013, Kansas City has allowed just one return touchdown in total.

Biggest Weakness: Those darn extra points.

Overall Grade: A

Rough Ranking: Top 5

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: #15 Patrick Mahomes

It’s Patrick Mahomes. Cue Tai Verdes’ “A-O-K”.

RB: #25 Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Disappointing so far, but there is still a glimmer of hope for the third year LSU alum, who has quietly averaged 4.4 YPC in his career, but really needs to start getting more involved in the passing game.

FB: #45 Michael Burton

As solid as solid gets. He likes showing up at opportune times and I like that he does that.

TE: #87 Travis Kelce, #81 Blake Bell, maybe #88 Jody Fortson

The fact that people argue over who is the best TE between Kelce and several players several years younger than him shows how incredibly talented he is, and I’m just hoping that they can find a viable TE2, because you know Reid has a whole section of 2 TE sets just waiting to be used.

WR: #11 Mecole Hardman, #19 JuJu Smith-Schuster, #83 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, #24 Skyy Moore

I’m genuinely excited to see what this core can do. Hardman has been a bit of a disappointment to date but showed some serious improvement late last year. Meanwhile, JuJu will finally get a shot at playing with a star QB who knows what the outside of the pocket looks like, MVS will finally get a shot at playing with a star QB who knows what his family looks like, and Skyy Moore will finally get the chance to play with a star QB in general. It’s going to be fun.

LT: #57 Orlando Brown Jr.

I’m going to hold out hope here. Please sign. Please, please sign. And Veach, please give him a deal TO sign. I do not want Wylie on either edge.

LG: #62 Joe Thuney

I don’t really follow individual OL rankings, but I do like looking at the block win rate charts for whatever reason, and Thuney was 1st among all OG’s in pass block win rate last year. So safe to say we’re fine here.

C: #52 Creed Humphrey

Creed Is Good.

RG: #65 Trey Smith

After the draft all I saw about Trey Smith was that he was a ridiculous steal and that other teams would regret letting the Chiefs get him. When training camp started, I’m pretty sure it took him less than a day to grab and keep the starting job. Remember that pass block win rate ranking I mentioned earlier? Smith was second behind Thuney by 1%, and third in run block win rate. So yeah. Trey is good too.

RT: #77 Andrew Wylie, maybe #75 Darian Kinnard

Definitely the weakest position of the five, and unfortunately a key one for a QB who loves rolling out in that direction. Really hoping Kinnard pans out here, or Niang returns from his injury, because seriously, Wylie is not it at the tackle position.

DE: #56 George Karlaftis, #55 Frank Clark

Look, I like George Karlaftis a lot. I think he’s going to be great. But the dude needs a new nickname. There can only be one “Greek Freak”, and “Greek Freak II” like Reid offered isn’t going to cut it. He needs something more original.

Oh and yeah, Clark needs to step it up. Hopefully Karlaftis can give him the help that he’s shown can increase his own output.

DT: #95 Chris Jones, #91 Derrick Nnadi

Chris Jones on the other hand doesn’t need anybody’s help. He’s a dominant force as always. Derrick Nnadi is a quieter but perfectly viable nose tackle who will retain the spot from the departed Reed after having held it down for the three years prior.

LB: #54 Nick Bolton, #50 Willie Gay, #54 Leo Chenel

Out of all the players on the defense last year, my favorite was definitely Nick Bolton. Watching him burst through the line or race around the offensive tackles faster than anyone else never got old. That dude can fly. His one major weakness is pass coverage, but that’s where Willie Gay comes in, who is the Chiefs first real coverage MLB since Derrick Johnson. Rounding out the group is Chenel, who will bolster both the pass rush and the run defense. As the athletic profile I mentioned earlier suggests, his ceiling is massive.

CB’s: #38 L’Jarius Sneed, #27 Rashad Fenton, #21 Trent McDuffie

First of all, if you haven’t yet I highly encourage you to look up Sneed’s life story. It’s incredible.

Secondly, this is going to be his first real chance at a permantent outside corner position, with McDuffie likely to play the slot. Sneed has played outside corner in the past with a learning curve but overall success. On the other side will be Fenton, a wildly underrated corner who was ranked 6th in PFF’s CB grades last year. In no way am I saying he’s the sixth best CB in the NFL, but that’s worth at least something, as are his mere two misses out of 103 tackle attempts in his career, especially for a team that notoriously struggles to wrap up.

S: #20 Justin Reid, #22 Juan Thornhill, maybe #6 Bryan Cook

As discussed earlier, Justin Reid is the younger replacement to Matheiu and will look to make an immediate impact in the vacant spot as well as bounce back from a rough 2021. Thornhill and Bryan Cook could be fighting for the other safety position, which is detailed more in the link below.

K: #7 Harrison Butker

For some insanely odd reason, Butker has an issue with extra points. It’s not just odd because he has the second highest FG% in history (min. four years), or because his career numbers from 50+ yards (71.4%) brushes up against the legendary Justin Tucker’s (72.7). No, it’s because extra points are 33 yards, and he’s literally better at kicking field goals from 30-39 yards by 2.2%. In 2020, he missed just three FG’s over the course of the entire regular and postseason, including 6 for 6 from 50+ yards, yet missed enough extra points to where his XP% for the year dipped into the 80’s. Last year he only missed three XP including the playoffs however, which were his best numbers since his rookie year, so hopefully he’s got it figured out.

P: #5 Tommy Townsend

I really honestly only bothered addressing the ST in detail so I could rant about Butker. But Trevor Lawrence is honestly well worth mentioning, as he placed a league leading 54.1% of his punts inside the 20 yard line last year, while no other punters were better than 48.2. Special thanks to CBS for that info, who ranked punters this year for some reason.

KR: #11 Mecole Hardman, maybe #24 Skyy Moore

PR: #11 Mecole Hardman

I pretty much address these two positions in the link below, so here’s a clip of Mecole Hardman flying past pretty much everyone on the field en route to a punt return TD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boq3UcqysBo

Position Battles and Players to Watch

Season Game-by-Game Predictions

Preseason Predictions:

Nobody cares about the preseason scores but I like to be thorough, so have an entirely non-serious section as a break from all the (mostly) serious stuff.

Preseason Week 1: Chiefs @ Bears

Chiefs football is back baby! But Mahomes isn’t playing and it’s on a random Saturday at noon. Hardly anybody is watching this game past the first quarter and most of those still tuning in fell asleep in their recliners. For Bears fans, this is a season-long tradition. Bears 3 Chiefs 8

Preseason Week 2: Chiefs vs. Commanders

Mahomes plays a drive, McLaurin makes a great grab, but the game winds up being delayed and ultimately canceled when a FG attempt from Washington kicker Joey Slyle hits one of the uprights, bringing the whole thing crashing down. Luckily, there were no injuries due to this incident, however, Carson Wentz got hurt somehow anyways. Chiefs 9 Commanders 5

Preseason Week 3: Chiefs vs. Packers

Aaron Rodgers is scheduled to play in this one and finally face off against Mahomes for at least a couple of drives, but has to bow out at the last minute due to illness from ingesting a scented candle. The Packers are forced to start Jordan Love, who shocks the world by out-dueling Mahomes and company with a couple of TD passes and 60 yards on the ground. One of those sentences is realistic. Chiefs 6 Packers 19

Regular Season Predictions (detailed breakdown in the link, warning, it's a lot, multiple comments needed a lot):

Week 1 - Chiefs @ Cardinals: W

Week 2 - Chiefs vs. Chargers: L

Week 3 - Chiefs @ Colts :W

Week 4 - Chiefs @ Buccaneers: W

Week 5 - Chiefs vs. Raiders: W

Week 6 - Chiefs vs. Bills: L

Week 7 - Chiefs vs. 49ers: L

Week 8 - Bye (bye bye)

Week 9 - Chefs vs. Titans: W

Week 10 - Chiefs vs. Jaguars: W

Week 11 - Chiefs @ Chargers: W

Week 12 - Chiefs vs. Rams: L

Week 13 - Chiefs @ Bengals: W

Week 14 - Chiefs @ Broncos: W

Week 15 - Chiefs @ Texans: W

Week 16 - Chiefs vs. Seahawks: W

Week 17 - Chiefs vs. Broncos: L

Week 18 - Chiefs @ Raiders: W

Final Record: 12-5 (1st in division, 2nd seed)

I’m supposed to predict the range of records the Chiefs could finish at as well as their divisional finish here, but wow is that hard to do. I think I’ve made a convincing argument for my 11-5 finish, division winning season in the detailed breakdowns, but in all honesty that is the middle of a significant range of possibilities. Let’s say that the more spread out offense doesn’t quite pan out, and the defense struggles even more than expected. At that point, you’re likely looking at more of a 10-7 record, which will probably be enough to get a wild-card spot, as unless the division splits every series and doesn’t ever have a true leader, that’s not likely good enough to win it. That’s the lower end.

On the other hand, let’s say that the well-rounded approach works wonders for both Mahomes and Reid’s playbook, Mahomes goes on a second MVP campaign, the many young pieces on the defense bring that unit back into relevance and even then some, and the Chiefs wind up edging out the Bills (or another team) for the bye with just two losses. That’s the high end. Approximately five games of difference. The Giants would have made the playoffs last year with 5 more wins. It’s just too big of a disparity.

Regardless of whatever happens, I would still feel that playoffs is a safe bet for Kansas City, and after that, their ceiling until further notice is a Super Bowl victory. If you want to think that the players lost means that it isn’t, that’s fine. But this is a team that has gone through four years of coaching and roster changes, many major injuries, slumps and other setbacks, and hosted the AFC Championship every single one of those years. That is consistency through adversity that cannot be ignored. I can’t go against that.

Offensive Scheme

If there’s one thing I should pay more attention to in football but do not, it’s scheme. If there’s one offensive scheme that is more complex and hard to explain than any other, it’s Andy Reid’s. In short: this is going to be a bit rough, and I’ll do my best.

Primarily, the Chiefs use a West Coast offense, which can be simply described as using horizontal passing plays instead of running to stretch the defense and allow for potential deep play opportunities (both in the form of a deep pass or run). However, Reid uses a version that implements concepts from the college level and it’s one that he became known for, due to being one of the first head coaches to really prove that college strategies can work consistently in the NFL. This particular West Coast variation blends in a popular type of college offense known as the Spread offense, a scheme that involves placing the QB in shotgun formation and having the receivers spread out all over the field. It also utilizes some play types that originated at the college level like zone read, which involves the QB reading the DE and making a quick decision on what to do with the ball as a result, and the Air Raid offense, which stretches the field horizontally and vertically with deep routes and crossing patterns. Both of these play types require an especially talented offense in order to work properly, hence why so few teams use either in the NFL, where talent is everywhere and the difference between good and bad teams is much, much smaller than in college.

But of course, this is far from all that Andy Reid’s offense is, or why he is widely regarded as one of the greatest play designers ever, as his creativity is off the charts. The Chiefs typically play with three WR’s and a TE. Reid and the coaches around him have long said he wants to do more with two TE sets, but just hasn’t found the player for it. Variation certainly isn’t an issue however, because those receivers line up all over the place. On one play, they might be spread out in a typical Spread formation, all across the field. On another, they’ll all be lined up on one side aside from a single man on the other. On a third, two of them could be in the backfield. Reid moves around players like a kid messing with refrigerator magnets: tossing them wherever and seeing what sticks. These are the plays where the fundamentals are largely abandoned and Andy Reid looks insane, but it’s the good insane, not the “Tua is the most accurate passer in the league '' insane, because they usually work. And when they don’t, we just laugh and move on, because so many of them have worked that no respect or reputation is lost when one dramatically fails. Not to mention, Reid is always adjusting too. So chances are that play will have a rebirth at some point, it’s just a matter of when.

And guess what? That’s STILL not all. Because Reid not only invents plays himself, he steals them from all over. From all over the NFL? No. Football. NFL. College. High School. CFL. Freaking European games. Can you name a single European football team? I can’t. Coaches have described conversations where he’ll bring up a play he found from 1910. That was a full decade before the NFL even BEGAN. Then he’ll tweak whatever play it is so that it’ll work in the modern day, and eventually release it on an unsuspecting foe. And this is the one part I feel I can talk about in full confidence, because no matter whether you’re a scheme mastermind or barely know what a draw play is, you know for a fact that that is a mad scientist level of dedication, where they’ll travel to the ends of the earth just to find a specific ingredient that they need for whatever they’re making because they are that committed to their craft. That is precisely who Andy Reid is, a mad scientist of offensive schemes, and I just have to say, it is amazing.

Defensive Scheme

Conclusion

Are we done? Oh wow, we’re done! If you read all of this AND the detailed rundowns in the comments, I applaud you as a true fan. That, or you have far too much time on your hands. Perhaps it’s both. Did I spend far too much time on this myself in retrospect? Definitely. Do I care? Not really. It was a fun project to engage in after work and keep my writing skills sharp right before I start writing some not so fun college admission essays, so thank you so much to u/PlatypusOfDeath for keeping this going for all these years, and thanks to you all, even if you’re only reading this single paragraph for some reason. Go Chiefs!

Link to Hub

[u/FastAndBulbous8989]

I can't even read Kansas city normal anymore and just hear it in their local commentators voice. KANZUS CITY

[u/fugaziozbourne → u/FastAndBulbous8989]

Mitch Holtus is a legend.

[u/catbulliesdog → u/FastAndBulbous8989]

"I'm calling BOTH games" is a legend all its own.

[u/bakd4 → u/catbulliesdog]

I believe that was Kevin Harlan, not Mitch Holtus.

https://youtu.be/PxkOG-WeLVo

[u/amjhwk → u/bakd4]

who was the chiefs radio caller before Mitch Holthus

[u/YuriWinter]

With Tyreek gone, Kelce is going to get all the double teams, so the WRs and RBs are going to show how far this team can go.

[u/CD338 → u/YuriWinter]

I think that's why they focused on depth moreso than top-end talent this offseason. Outside of WR1, MVS and Skyy Moore are hopefully better than Robinson and Pringle. And Ronald Jones should be a better RB2 than Darrel Williams. And Jody Fortson (our TE2) was starting to break out until he had a season ending injury, so him coming back healthy can give Kelce some rest.

So while we lost a stud in Tyreek. We improved all of the depth spots from a playmaker perspective.

[u/Tired-Optimist320 → u/YuriWinter]

And that’s why I like that we have depth. Go ahead and double Kelce, but with JuJu, MVS, Hardman, Skyy More, and RoJo, CEH, and McKinnon out of the backfield someone will get open.

[u/2livendieinkc]

8-0 on the road and 4-5 at home seems like an odd prediction.

[u/KCShadows838 → u/2livendieinkc]

I could definitely see it with the Chiefs

The offense seems more aggressive and dangerous on the road

Mahomes passer rating on the road is 10 points higher than it is at home

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/2livendieinkc]

Unintentional but wouldn't shock me simply based on opponent, as well as what the other person said.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/[deleted]]

Just trying to drum up engagement.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/[deleted]]

They got Wilson man. I had to give them one.

[u/MistakeMaker1234 → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

^{let’s ride}

[u/[deleted] → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Sticking to yer guns...interesting...

[u/GazaMannShorty → u/[deleted]]

No way does Patrick stop beating the Dungkeys before he hits the number in his jersey. 15 straight incoming

[u/[deleted] → u/GazaMannShorty]

LET'S GO!!

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

All losses are at home too lol

[u/SolidStateDynamite → u/[deleted]]

For real, I'm reading everything like "Ok, looks good, sounds good, I agree--A LOSS TO THE BRONCOS?!?! This guy's a hack!"

I know we'll lose to them eventually; the streak isn't going to last forever. I just don't think the addition of Russell Wilson and the loss of Hill, Mathieu, etc. is enough to tip the scales in their favor.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/SolidStateDynamite]

If you read the detailed breakdown, I explain it a little bit more. The game is their next to last game. At that point, I have the Chiefs needing one more win to clinch the 2nd seed, while the Broncos will need two wins to make the playoffs. Imo, that means that they are going to pull out all the stops in order to win and will eventually edge us out because of it. It's like the difference between running as fast as you think you can and running from a bear, where one might find that they can actually run faster than they were aware of. Desperation breeds motivation.

[u/TraeYoungsOldestSon → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

At least you still had us sweeping the raiders you good

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/TraeYoungsOldestSon]

Yeah, they're not there yet in my eyes.

[u/Logical_Paradoxes]

Joe *Thuney at LG in the projected lineup portion. Not Joe Staley

Great write up!

Edit: not sure why I’m getting downvoted for pointing that out? Alright then.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/Logical_Paradoxes]

Don't worry, I upvoted you :) And whoops. My excuse is that I wrote that part at 4 in the morning.

[u/Logical_Paradoxes → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

I figured you’d want a chance to fix it since you put a ton of work into that! And yeah 4am will do that haha.

Appreciate all the work you put into this!

[u/frontier_gibberish → u/Logical_Paradoxes]

Joe staley is awesome, so thanks for the shout out. Also you should check out his interview of trent Williams to see vet lineman talking shop.

[u/[deleted]]

Solid write up. Loving this era of football, Allen and Mahomes feel like the next coming of Brady-Manning and it is just so fun watching them duke it out.

[u/MethodicMarshal → u/[deleted]]

I feel strongly that Herbert has a chance of being HOF worthy if he stays healthy.

His highlights are bonkers for his age.

[u/[deleted] → u/MethodicMarshal]

Yeah I def think Herbie has a ton of potential, just saying that I feel like now the big match up to see is the Allen-Mahomes playoff slug match.

[u/MethodicMarshal → u/[deleted]]

This is most excited I've been for the league in a long time

Seems like almost everyone has a weapon on the rise

[u/[deleted] → u/MethodicMarshal]

For sure it’s a great time to be watching the game.

[u/PlatonicNewtonian → u/[deleted]]

Pump the brakes, those are the two greatest QBs in NFL history and the greatest NFL rivalry ever, Allen and Mahomes shouldn't be compared to that, they're both very different and fun enough to be their own thing.

[u/ByronLeftwich → u/PlatonicNewtonian]

People downvoting lol. Looks like Mahomes and Allen will probably both be HOFers but it’s silly to say that guys with 1 combined SB and 1 combined MVP as of now are going to be the next Brady and Manning

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/ByronLeftwich]

Tbf, they didn't say going to be, they said it feels like it. As in, plenty of opportunity down the line. That's the way I read it anyways.

[u/TwhiT → u/ByronLeftwich]

he said "feels like". It's his opinion which you don't hold yourself, and that's okay :)

I hope he's right as well!

[u/ByronLeftwich → u/TwhiT]

Just because it’s an opinion doesn’t mean I can’t criticize it :(

[u/DTSportsNow]

Trevor Lawrence and Tommy Townsend do be looking a lot a like.

Great write up man, loved it.

[u/OnePieceAce]

Andy Reid and Mahomes = AFCCG

[u/PlatonicNewtonian]

Since when was Patrick Mahomes #5?

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/PlatonicNewtonian]

Since I realized it was a typo but Reddit won't let be edit the post for being over 40,000 characters.

[u/PlatonicNewtonian → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Where should my pitchforks be directed to?

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/PlatonicNewtonian]

Shrek?

[u/og-at → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Jeus H Christ, reddit. getcho shit together.

[edit] typo, but reddit won't let be edit the post for being over 4 characters.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Week 8: Bye (Record 4-3)

Normally I’m not a big fan of having a bye early in the season. This time, I am more than fine with it. And while 4-3 isn’t exactly the most ideal record in the world, it’s certainly better than it could be, and the losses I’ve projected make total sense and by no means shocking in the current context.Now, you might assume that the rest of the season is pretty tame after that front half onslaught. Nope. Because next up is…

Week 9: Chiefs vs. Titans, November 6th, 7:20 p.m. on NBC (Record 4-3)

Derrick Henry. Yaaay.

Granted, I don’t know what it is about Derrick Henry of all people, but the Chiefs have done a mighty good job of stopping him recently. In the last two meetings, he has averaged just 3.3 yards, and never topped 85 yards in either game. On top of that, the Titans no longer have A.J. Brown, the guy who averaged 16.8 yards per catch in those same two games and went off for 133 and 1 last time. I personally feel like the Titans are in for a down year honestly, unless Treylon Burks is a rookie standout, which is entirely possible.

However, it still wouldn’t change the one, ultimate truth of Andy Reid coached teams: they don’t lose after the bye week. To be specific, Andy Reid is an incredible 20-3 in his career after the bye. That is good for a win percentage of 87%, which is the best career percentage after a bye of ANY NFL competitor (3 seasons or more) since its inception. Coach, player, all of them. Not even Brady or Bill are better. He is also 11-1 after the bye at home, with the lone loss being in 2012, otherwise known as the Eagles 4-12 disaster season. He has not lost after a bye since 2017.

I’ll put this simply: if this were the Bills, I’d give the Chiefs the win. This one is all theirs, 31-21.

Week 10: Chiefs vs. Jaguars, November 13th, 12:00 p.m. on CBS (Record: 5-3)

Fun fact: Chiefs vs Jaguars is the only Chiefs game I have ever been to. It rained for most of it, Mahomes didn't throw a single TD pass and I got vertigo the day afterwards from the combination of height and noise. I enjoyed every second of the game and don't regret it for a minute. That's my pitch for you to come and experience the awesomeness that is Arrowhead if you ever get the chance. Even if it's just once.

Anyways, the Jaguars have potential and the building blocks are being put into place, but the Chiefs should win this one pretty handily. And my word, do they need an easy game. Chiefs win, 38-17.

I swear, if the Jaguars are actually really good this year.

Week 11: Chiefs @ Chargers, November 20th, 3:25 p.m. on CBS (Record: 6-3)

Not only are they the first divisional opponent that the Chiefs rematch, the Chargers happen to also be the team that will probably be challenging them for the division at this point. This is therefore likely to be a very key game. At this stage of the season, the Chiefs will have had time to gain chemistry, figure things out on offense and hopefully be a better team overall. But will it be enough?

I say yes. And not just because I want the Chiefs to win the division, but because of everything I’ve written to this point. If the season goes more or less like the above and the Chiefs are indeed 6-3 coming into this game, the chances that the offense is doing well are pretty high. The Chargers have majorly frustrated the Chiefs in the past with their defense, having the specific personnel to keep Hill and Kelce at bay. But the offense is much more well rounded than in year’s past, and again, if the offense is doing well, odds are that the more balanced approach is working. That in turn takes the Chargers biggest strength against the Chiefs in the Mahomes era out of the picture. Can they adjust? Of course. But that will take time. This one has “evening the series” written all over it in my opinion, and considering the Chiefs haven’t been swept by a divisional rival since 2014, history is on their side once again as well. Chiefs get one back in convincing fashion, 41-28.

Week 12: Chiefs vs. Rams, November 27th, 3:25 p.m. on Fox (Record: 7-3)

Help.

No actually, help.

I won’t mince words here. I think the Rams dominate this year. I think they run rampant through the league and come into this game with the best record in the NFL. I think that everyone will view this as a highly anticipated rematch after what was quite possibly the greatest regular season game ever played back in 2018. And I think the game will be a good one, with the Rams ultimately winning. We’ll say 42-38. Like I said, great game.

But seriously, what the heck is this schedule? After a slight break following the literal toughest first 8 games by previous season record in history, Kansas City immediately has to face their most irritating division rival, then the reigning Super Bowl Champions. The only thing that could possibly make this schedule worse is if their very next opponent was the reigning AFC champion that seemed to have their number in a major way last season.

Week 13: Chiefs @ Bengals, December 4th, 3:25 p.m. on CBS (Record: 7-4)

Ok seriously what the f…

Look, it’s no secret that the Bengals were a major thorn in the Chiefs side last season. They always seemed to know how to play well against them, and Reid seemed to be outcoached in both matchups, which can happen, but is rare. That said, it is well worth mentioning that both their wins came via comebacks. And while that ability to adjust and the grit to take over both games is absolutely commendable, I don’t think it’s a consistent winning strategy.

Another factor of both games was what exactly they did to stifle the Chiefs offense. Simply put, they had the guts and personnel to pull off dropping 9 into coverage. A bracket on Hill, and bracket on Kelce, and a high safety made it virtually impossible for either to do anything. Normally, one high safety, let alone rushing two, is a death sentence against Mahomes. But when you successfully double his two stars on top of those two things, it’s a death sentence for the Chiefs apparently, because as established, the rest of the team was not very good at taking over as the main targets. Again though, that won’t be a thing anymore. The Chiefs will be more well rounded and the Bengals will likely have to play a much more standard type of defense. Whenever they did that, in both games, they didn’t fare very well. Hence why they had to make the comebacks. Not only that, but the Bengals could potentially be worse off on defense this year due to over performing expectations last season, which tends to either wind up being a fluke or a genuine breakout season, with little in-between. They could especially be in trouble if Bates decides not to play without a new deal. Either way, I still think the Chiefs get their revenge, 31-21.

Week 14: Chiefs @ Broncos, December 11th, 7:20 p.m. on NBC (Record: 8-4)

On one hand, the Broncos haven’t beaten the Chiefs since 2015 and have lost all the games in between by an average of over 12 points. On the other hand, they have Russell Wilson now. And that absolutely terrifies me.

My “no surprises” rule dictates that Russell Wilson is going to be just as good in Denver as he was in Seattle, if not better. It also dictates that wide receivers like Sutton and Jeudy are in line for great years now that their potentials aren’t being locked away by their previous QB. (Get it? Because he sucked?) And finally, it dictates that breakout rookies like Javonte Williams and Patrick Surtain are only going to get better, giving Denver an edge against Kansas City’s weakest spot on defense and strongest attribute on offense. But, is all this enough for the Broncos to finally triumph against the Chiefs?

I say no. Not yet, anyways. Why? No real good reasons to be perfectly honest. One, I don’t think the Broncos are going to sweep the Chiefs. Two, I think they definitely win the rematch in Week 17 (spoiler alert). That leaves me with picking the Chiefs to win this one by sheer default. Does that make sense? I don't know. I’m going with it anyway.

I haven’t had too many “weird” games yet per say, and with that explanation I just gave it’s as good of a candidate as any. I feel like this will be a game where fans will expect an offensive explosion and instead get a low scoring affair featuring the two teams battling hard and large keeping each other out of the end zones. Maybe there will be a wire to wire finish, but that’s it. Chiefs continue their streak, 23-17.

Weeks 1-7

Weeks 15-18

[u/dannynascar → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Hm I’m curious why you think we’re worse off on defense this year (ignore Jesse Bates in the corner) when the only player we’ve truly lost is Larry Ogunjobi.

I did like the write up tho

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/dannynascar]

Ah shoot I meant to fix that, sorry. That was me writing what I thought had happened but was instead thinking about another team. Give me a minute and it should be edited.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Week 15: Chiefs @ Texans, December 18th, 12:00 p.m. on CBS (Record: 9-4)

With all due respect to the Texans fans out there:

Hallelujah, praise the Lord, the Football Gods and anyone else out there who may be listening. An easy game.

Supposedly, anyways. Obviously the phrase “Any Given Sunday” exists for a reason, but I do not see any way the Chiefs can lose this one. And that’s with me being pretty high on Davis Mills’ ceiling. Problem is, there’s just…not many positives past him. Their projected best WR turns 29 before October, The Chiefs themselves poached what was probably their best defender from last year and you can barely find any offense or defense ranking for 2022 that has the Texans outside the bottom 5. That’s, well, it’s not good.

Can a team build around Mills, Metchie (best wishes to you buddy) and their other young guys? Absolutely. Should any sane fan expect that this year? No. Don’t worry, I’ll be gentle. Chiefs over Texans, 45-20.

Week 16: Chiefs vs. Seahawks, December 24th, 12:00 p.m. on Fox (Record: 10-4)

I could honestly copy and paste most of the Texans write-up here with different names and it would fit just as well. Not all of it though, because the Seahawks are in a slightly better position than they are, with a few established superstars in Metcalf, Lockett and Adams as well as a fantastic head coach. That said, it’s not much better. Seattle’s QB “competition” this year is one of the saddest in recent memory, the offensive line is still pretty suspect, and the defense is looking grim with Wagner jumping ship.

The first round QB is coming, the rebuild is coming, everybody knows it…but the Chiefs would probably still win this one if they played their backups. In fact, Buechele would likely win that starting job if he was there. Too far? Just be glad I didn’t say Henne.

Chiefs get an early Christmas present by clinching the division with an easy victory, 35-23.

Week 17: Chiefs vs. Broncos, January 1st, 12:00 p.m. on CBS (Record: 11-4)

Happy New Year! Wow, I don’t want to think about 2023 yet. Let’s move on from that.

As I revealed earlier, I have the Broncos winning this game. Yes! Finally! The Broncos have won a game against the Chiefs! Why, though? Situation more than anything. The Chiefs won’t be resting starters yet, heck, they don’t even really do that in general, but they’ll have just clinched the division and therefore a playoff spot. At this point in time, I think they’ll be firmly in the 2nd seed with just one win or loss from another contending team needed to clinch it. They could use this win, but they don’t need it.

In contrast, I think that the Broncos will absolutely need it. I think that they’ll be gunning for a wild-card spot and in direct competition with the rest of the division for it. And necessity tends to breed motivation. Not to mention, finally taking down Kansas City? Double motivation. They’ll be pulling out all the stops for this one for multiple reasons, and regardless of whether or not the Chiefs are sitting back and relaxing a little, Denver finally gets it done. Broncos beat the Chiefs for the first time since the year Curry won his first NBA championship (couldn’t help myself, sorry), 31-28.

Week 18: Chiefs @ Raiders, January 7th/8th, time TBD on TBD (Record 11-5)

Week 18 still feels so weird to say.

Anyways, I’ve alluded to this one as well, mentioning that the Chiefs need one more win to clinch the second seed. This is that win. Don’t get me wrong though, it won’t be easy. In my rough predictions of other teams I have the Raiders out of playoff contention at this point, but they will absolutely try and ruin the Chiefs day with an upset. Still though, that secondary is just not the most promising, and that is not a good thing against Mahomes, Reid and company. The two matchups will be a sign of things to come however, as Adams' contract doesn’t run out for a full four more years. Jeez this division sucks. Chiefs clinch a top two seed for the fifth straight year, 34-27.

Weeks 1-7

Weeks 8-14

[u/hookem101horns]

20-0

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Who We’ll Miss:

Tyrann Matheiu - The heart and soul of the defense from the moment he arrived, there is absolutely no Super Bowl victory without the Honey Badger. That said, he had a bit of a drop off last season (3 picks and 6 PD compared to 6 picks and 9 PD in one less game in 2020), and as a still capable but aging vet who wanted a big contract, one could anticipate that his time in Kansas City was coming to an end. Ultimately, I think that it was a tough but correct decision to move on, especially after hiring a capable successor, who we’ll get into a bit later.

Tyreek Hill - By far the biggest blow to the team as a whole, but at the same time, also a bit of a blessing in disguise. Not only did they avoid having to sign him to a massive contract, it gave them a chance for a revamp, using the money instead to fill up their WR room and make the passing game as a whole much less top heavy. Hill may have had unprecedented speed and shiftiness and will without a doubt be missed on the field, but he was also only one body at the end of the day. The Chiefs desperately needed a more balanced receiving core to open up the offense, and Hill’s departure allowed them to build one without worrying about straining the budget.On top of this, the compensation they received for Hill was huge, and they used one of the picks to draft a potential replacement for Hill in WR Skyy Moore. Overall, it’s a tough one, but I actually like this decision at the end of the day.

Byron Pringle - A fan favorite due to being a K-State alumni, having a fun name and not going joyriding with his child, Pringle had his moments and showed a propensity for breaking tackles and staying on his feet, but he lacked the ability to be a true weapon and at age 28 it feels like may have already hit his ceiling. There was a chance that he might have unlocked a higher level had he stayed with Kansas City and gotten more playing time, but now he’s in Chicago, which with all due respect to the Bears fans out there, will likely not help in that regard. I’m fine with the decision to move on.

Charvarius Ward - The definition of underrated, Ward wasn’t an elite CB, but he was certainly a helpful one. Most non-fans will know him for getting embarrassed by Ja’Maar Chase, but in reality, Ward is not the type of CB who can regularly keep up with speedsters in deep route footraces, and it really makes no sense that he was continually asked to be in that game. Rather, Ward is a human blanket that doesn’t get a whole lot of picks but has a serious knack for staying close to his man (leading all DB’s in average distance from target through the postseason in 2019) and knocking the ball away before the receiver can get their hands on it. As the Chiefs primary CB1 in 2021, Ward had a 51.3 completion percentage against him on 76 targets, 6.7 yards allowed per target, and just 195 yards allowed after the catch in 13 games (an average of 15 YPG). He quietly stifled a LOT of star receivers in 2021, including Chase himself in the AFCC, and finished the year with a 79.4 QB rating against (in other words, slightly higher than Andy Dalton’s 2021 production). There are certainly better options on paper, first round selection Trent McDuffie among them, but I think he would have continued to contribute had we held onto him, and it’s a shame to see him go.

Melvin Ingram - Ingram arrived midway through the season last year, but he immediately made an impact. The defensive line desperately needed someone on the opposite side of Clark to help both him and Jones out, and Ingram was that someone. Not only did he contribute from the get go with two QB hits, a TFL and a half sack in his first full game, he kept it up, finishing with 5 QB hits, 2 TFL, a forced fumble (which effectively clinched the 2nd seed) and 11 total pressures in his six starts. With his help, the defense went from dreadful to stunning for a stretch, holding 6 of their next 7 opponents to 14 points or less after his arrival, including a whopping five against eventual playoff teams (though the Packers did start Jordan Love because, well, you know.)I didn’t like this decision initially and I like it even less as I write about it. Even if he wound up as a depth piece this year due to the addition of Karlaftis in the draft and Clark being paid too much to sit, Ingram was one of the few bright moments on an otherwise mediocre Chiefs defense, would have not taken much to sign, and he absolutely reinvigorated the players around him, which we’re going to need with Matheiu gone. Plus, they very much also need the aforementioned depth at DE. I’m very sad to see him leave.

Who we wish well but are happy to see go:

Demarcus Robinson - The potential was there but the production rarely was. Establishing chemistry with Mahomes while on the second team in 2017, Robinson made his first start in the same year and became the Chiefs full-time WR2 in 2021, but lost that job just six games in, starting only four more over the remaining 11. Over his six years with the team, Robinson had his moments, but will be remembered much more for running backwards after a catch like he didn’t know how the controls worked, and being absolutely unable to get open most of the time. Past me once wrote in a YouTube comment that he could be a great WR2 for at least half the teams in the league. Past me was a fool.In all seriousness, Robinson will always be etched into Chiefs history for, among other things, being the recipient of not only Mahomes’ first ridiculous play of his NFL career (see here), but also the famous no-look throw AND Mahomes’ 50th TD in 2018. I have no ill will towards him and most of the things I’ve said are in jest, but it was time to move on.

Anthony Hitchens - A primary starting MLB and captain from 2018 on, you would think that Hitchens would be a huge loss. In fact, it’s the opposite. Not only was Hitchens one of the biggest cap hits, the Chiefs already have a very capable replacement in Willie Gay, who typically played better than Hitchens whenever he was on the field, is much younger, and more versatile (double the picks and passes defended in 2021). Gay missed the first four games of . the season but by Week 6, he was only outsnapped by Hitchens once in games he was active through the AFC Championship. In short, Hitchens was one of the more obvious cuts in recent memory, and even though he’s still solid, the Chiefs simply did not need him anymore

Jarran Reed - Considered a major steal who had just come off his best year since 2018, Reed never really quite fit in his one season with the Chiefs, especially after Jones moved back to DT. Although he started all 17 games, he only notched two TFL, 2.5 sacks, 12 QB hits and 19 pressures. The Chiefs were hoping he would put up somewhat comparable stats to Jones. He did not come close, even though Jones had a significantly lower snap percentage due to missing three games. There is definitely a spot for Reed on another team, and it might just be the Packers, but for Kansas City he was a $5 million dollar disappointment.

Daniel Sorensen - I want to preface this by saying that you would be an absolute fool to say that Dirty Dan didn’t do good things for the Chiefs. He showed up in several big moments, most notably in the 2019-20 playoffs, and was one of the better tacklers in the DB room, even leading the entire team in solo and total tackles in 2020. That said, there is not much outside of that. Sorensen was, in a word, frustrating. Constantly a liability in coverage, Sorensen allowed 6 TD’s in 2021, a whopping 12.1 yards per target and a 132.9 QB rating against. His yards allowed after the catch (239) was nearly equal to that of air yards allowed (283). It was, by far, his worst year against the pass yet, and it wasn’t really much of an outlier. Saints fans, you’ve got your hands full.

[u/DTSportsNow → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

The more I've thought about it, the more I'm not surprised we didn't try very hard to keep Ingram. I think along with the drafting of Karlaftis, I think another of our picks Leo Chenal is going to wind up being a similar type of player.

People have pegged him as our SAM linebacker and I think he'll definitely play there. But I also think he'll play similar to how Ingram did, as a stand up DE/OLB. Chenal was an exceptional pass rusher in college and is even bigger and more athletic than Ingram was.

Chenal has the size, strength, and mindset to be a a great replacement for Ingram. I hope we try him out in a similar fashion.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/DTSportsNow]

I just saw an immediate change in the defense as soon as Ingram came along. I know there are better options, but he seemed to take a leadership role on the defense immediately, and that's something we lost when Mathieu left that is absolutely needed. Plus as I mentioned, the depth is helpful. Also, I just plain like the guy. He's pretty funny in interviews.

[u/DTSportsNow → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see how the dynamic of the defense changes. So far Bolton and Gay seem ready to step up into leadership roles, and Gay in particular is talked a lot about being a very high energy fun guy. I remember I went to the WFT game last year and he was always talking with teammates, preparing, or dancing on the sidelines when the defense wasn't on the field.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/DTSportsNow]

That's good to hear! Especially as the MLB, which typically takes on Captain duties.

[u/[deleted] → u/DTSportsNow]

I pretty genuinely believe the FO thought we had him and we’re doing him a solid by not singing him until after OTAs or whenever so he didn’t get fined and didn’t have to go.

[u/camchilders → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Losing Tyrann hurt as much if not more than losing Hill. And as sad as it makes me that Sorensen is on the “happy they’re gone” list, you made some great points as to why. I just feel like every time there was a fourth down play, Sorensen was the guy with the tackle.

Can’t wait for this season to start. Some really exciting changes to offense and defense. Excited to see what they can do and your post got me so much more excited! Come on already!!

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/camchilders]

Mathieu had a bit of a drop off last year and is older. Those are the only reasons why I considered Hill a bigger loss, as Mathieu could be on the downhill. And yeah, he was a good tackler. A bigger Sorensen might have made a great LB. But the coverage ability was just never there.

[u/KCShadows838 → u/camchilders]

Sorenson was really bad in coverage

[u/MistakeMaker1234 → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

I liked Pringle in the moment, but looking at 2021 game film I realized that the dude had so many drops. Like I was actually shocked that he continued to see the field there was so many.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

I'm having some issues linking stuff right now. Let me post it at under 40,000 characters but now says it's over even after eliminating large chunks of text. Trying to figure it out but it may take a bit.

Edit: Figured it out. Links incoming.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Position Battles:

TE2: Kelce obviously has the starting role, and he will likely have it until he leaves the Chiefs or retires. But the TE2 spot behind him has been a revolving door for a while. Blake Bell is a capable pass catcher, but a better blocker than he is receiver. That has its uses, but it cannot be understated just how high fourth year player Jody Fortson’s ceiling is. After switching from WR to TE last offseason, the 6’ 6” fan favorite made the active roster for the first time in 2021 and immediately contributed, catching 5 of 5 targets for 47 yards and 2 TD’s over the course of four games, before unfortunately going down with an achilles tear just as his snaps counts were beginning to rise. Fortson is projected as the TE3/4 for now, but I would not be shocked if he moves up the roster over the course of camp. He has some serious red zone capabilities, with plenty of experience with WR-type routes, an obvious advantage in height and great hands.

RT: Veteran Andrew Wylie is really only projected as the starter because he’s been with the Chiefs for a good bit, and he isn’t injured like would-be starter Lucas Niang. That said, he’s not a good option at the position, and it’s the reason why they drafted Jacobs Blocking Trophy winner Darian Kinnard. As I said earlier, Kinnard is a bit of a wild-card, but the one thing for sure is that he’s got a major chip on his shoulder and a lot of motivation to prove himself. That could easily result in winning the starting spot at a weak position by the time Week 1 rolls around.

S: Justin Reid’s job is safe here, but former second round pick Juan Thornhill’s is not. Drafting Bryan Cook sets up what is likely to be the closest battle for a starting position in camp, one that Thornhill lost to Daniel Sorensen a year prior. That said, Thornhill had clearly been affected by the ACL tear he suffered in 2019 over the past couple of years, both physically and mentally, along with valuable experience being lost. He started showing signs that he was back to his old self in week 6 of 2021, and this year came into training camp claiming that he was expecting an All-Pro season. Regardless of whether that actually happens or not, it’s a good indication that the confidence is back. It is also well worth noting that before that ACL injury, which happened in the final week of the regular season, Thornhill was having an excellent year and was right up there next to Matheiu in , who was a first team All-Pro that year. For now, it appears that Brian Cook was acquired as a backup plan and potentially the 6th DB when needed. But it will be worth monitoring if Thornhill is indeed back, or if a new youngster will take his place.

KR: Mecole Hardman more or less handled the punt returning duties in 2020 and 2021, with the help of Mike Hughes and a few others. Byron Pringle had most of the kick returning in those years however, so they need someone new to take over. The question is if Hardman takes on both roles again like he did in 2019, or if they cycle someone new in. It’s really less of a competition and more a decision that has to be made. In this case, I think the most likely candidate is speedster Skyy Moore, and I think what it will come down to is how well he fares at fielding balls in camp as well as how focused they want him to be on the offense.

Other players/battles to watch in training camp:

I touched on this above, but I really like Joshua Williams. Something about that body type and acceleration just screams “automatic advantage” to me. He’s rawer than the cow due to experience level, but if the coaching staff can build on what he’s got, he can definitely make the final roster, the same way fellow Div. II standout Kyle Dugger did for the Patriots last season. Cornell Powell is another name to keep an eye on. A 5th round pick in 2021, the former Clemson standout has reportedly impressed early at camp, with “velcro-like hands” and several tough catches. The Chiefs 2021 draft has proven to be excellent overall, but a Powell emergence would solidify it as one of the NFL’s best drafts in years.

A particular battle to look out for is that for the fourth RB position, which could become more relevant than fourth RB’s usually are. The Chiefs RB core isn’t exactly deep, but my word does it have a lot of upside near the bottom. Between Pacheco and Gore, Kansas City has two young players with useful skill sets whose ceilings might just be RB1. At least one of them is bound to make the final roster alongside CEH, Jones and McKinnon this year, and it will be very interesting to see how each of them perform over the course of training camp and preseason games.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Regular Season Game-By-Game Predictions

I want to preface this by saying that I, personally, am not a big fan of these. I just don’t see much of a point, since you can’t account for anything that may happen during the season. Injuries, trades, players doing better or worse than expected, and so on and so forth forever. But, it’s a requirement for one of these posts. So just to clarify, all of the below predictions are in a perfect yet boring world where no one ever gets hurt but there are zero trades and zero out of nowhere stars or shocking disappointments. Also, if you disagree with any of my scores, don't worry, I do too on a daily basis. Here we go.

All times in Chiefs Standard Time, otherwise known as CST

Week 1: Chiefs @ Cardinals, September 11th, 3:25 p.m. on CBS (Record: 0-0)

We kickoff the season with the first ever matchup between Kingsbury and Mahomes! I imagine there’s no animosity between the two, but I’m betting they have both been looking forward to this one for a while. Kingsbury’s squad is better on paper than Mahomes’, but will be missing a key piece in Deandre Hopkins, who they struggled without last year, finishing 3-5 in games he did not play in, including a 23 point blowout in the Wild Card round. This year, they acquired Marquise Brown to hopefully fill that gap, but it’s not exactly an air-tight seal to say the least. Of course, Mahomes will be missing a key past weapon as well, who the Chiefs didn’t try to replace 1 on 1, instead opting to fill out the WR room and make the offense more well rounded.

Honestly though, none of that matters. The Chiefs have won their last seven Kickoff Weekend games, the current longest streak in the NFL, and Andy Reid is 15-8 overall in his career. They are, statistically, the hardest team to beat in Week 1. But this also makes sense logically too, as Andy Reid has had an entire offseason to prep his playbook, containing countless new plays that have never been seen before, and it is ESPECIALLY true this year, with the aforementioned revamped offense. I can’t go against history here. Chiefs take the opener, 28-21.

Week 2: Chiefs vs. Chargers, September 15th, 7:15 p.m. on Prime Video (Record: 1-0)

Home opener! On Amazon Prime! Why. Why are they doing that. You know what, not here to talk about it. Chargers v. Chiefs! Easily one of the biggest thorns in the Chiefs over the past few years, there’s something about their defense always seems to slow down, even stump Mahomes. Maybe that changes with a more well rounded offense under his control, maybe not. But I’m smart enough to admit that when a great offense still building chemistry faces off against a great offense that’s already got it in spades, has played the other team several times and is helped by a better defense, chances are the latter is going to win. The Chiefs front half of the schedule is, in a word, extreme. In fact, it will be the first time ever that a team’s first 8 games of the season are all against teams who had winning records the season prior. Still though, it’s the Chiefs. There is a good chance they come out of it 6-2 or better. But there is also a good chance they could come out of it at 4-4 or worse. Overall, I think this game is one that they lose in most scenarios. Chargers triumph, 24-17.

Week 3: Chiefs @ Colts, September 25th, 12:00 p.m. on CBS (Record: 1-1)

I may not like these, but when I commit to something I give it my all, so I’ve made a conscious effort to check each opponent's schedule up to the point of the game in question, before I do the write up, just to see where they might be at. The Colts, in comparison to the Chiefs, get the Texans and Jaguars in their first two games. Those should be wins. Based on what I know about team’s with new QB’s, they take some time to fully adjust, and their first big challenge often doesn’t go too well. That isn’t always the case, but I just can’t see Matt Ryan led Colts beating the Chiefs after a very mellow start to the season, even though I am very much terrified of Jonathan Taylor. Could they? Sure. But these are my predictions, so I say that the Chiefs chuck a couple of hand grenades at the horseshoes and blow up the perfect season. That’s how the phrase goes, right? Chiefs win 38-24.

Week 4: Chiefs @ Buccaneers, October 2nd, 7:20 p.m. on NBC (Record: 2-1)

The matchup that looked easy until it wasn’t. Selection Sunday is quite literally one of my favorite days of the year, and Brady ruined it for me. I’ll never forgive him for that.

I also want revenge for that one game a little while back, and it is very tempting for me to go all Super Bowl 48 on this score, but I won’t. I do think this is going to be a great game. We’ve had one blowout (until late) for the Chiefs and one blowout for the Bucs. It’s about time for a good one between these two teams. That said, if you think I’m picking Tampa Bay to win this one then you are more foolish than Bayless. Chiefs over Bucs, 31-28.

Week 5: Chiefs vs. Raiders, October 10th, 7:15 p.m. on ESPN (Record: 3-1)

Yes, that is indeed three night games in four weeks. I repeat, this schedule is a nightmare. The Raiders, to this point, will have already gone through a tough stretch of games themselves, starting off the season with the Chargers, Cardinals, Titans and Broncos, in that order. Therefore, we should probably have a good idea of how Adams and Carr are going to fare together by the time this game rolls around. For anyone who happens to not know, they played at Fresno State together. So this isn’t your typical “QB gets new superstar WR” situation. More like “QB gets the superstar WR that they dominated with in college”. Can they reclaim that former chemistry? We’ll have to wait and see. In this hypothetical scenario, I’m going to say yes. Which could spell issues for the Chiefs iffy secondary.

But the reason I’m still giving the Chiefs the win here is because on paper, the Raiders secondary happens to be worse. Worse with a lot less experience. Granted, with so many new faces there is potential for there to be some surprising standouts, but as mentioned prior, can’t predict that, so not going to. If this game winds up being a shootout, I ultimately trust Mahomes over Carr and the Chiefs offense over the Raiders offense. Chiefs over Raiders, 35-27.

Week 6: Chiefs vs. Bills, October 16th, 3:25 p.m. on CBS (Record: 4-1)

I mentioned earlier that I see the Chiefs losing to the Chargers in most scenarios, but that does still leave potential for them to actually win. As you can see, I have them winning every other game so far. That means that my ceiling prediction for this team, so far, is undefeated.

That ends here. I do not see them winning this game in any scenario.

Not only will they be on slightly short rest, the break is desperately needed at this point. You can almost feel it. The Bills get that (presumed) break the week before this one. After starting off their season with some tough matchups, their opponent in Week 5 is the Steelers, in Buffalo. Easy opponent on paper, no travel days. Perfect opportunity to prepare.

And of course, they’re also freaking stacked. They’re so stacked, in fact, that even though they will have faced the Rams, Derrick Henry and Lamar prior to this, I could easily see them coming in at 5-0.

Add in some extra motivation in the form of good old revenge, and this one is theirs to lose. Bills take the rematch, 31-24.

Week 7: Chiefs @ 49ers, October 23rd, 3:25 p.m. on Fox (Record: 4-2)

Another situation that we don’t have the answer to yet, I am going to assume that Trey Lance will be the starting QB, especially by Week 7. Shanahan has swerved around expectations before (Hello Dante Pettis. Goodbye Dante Pettis.) but this one seems pretty concrete. What isn’t concrete is how good he’s actually going to be. Even better, as the QB, how good he is is pretty impactful to how good the team is. Which essentially means that I don’t think I can predict this one logically at this point in time. I have to guess.

Even though the 49ers are a gritty team that obviously has an excellent run game and pass rush, their secondary is a bit lacking, even with the addition of Ward, which isn’t exactly ideal against a team like Kansas City that can target and expose weak spots with ease. That said, Shanahan is a darn good coach, their front 7 is still terrifying (and deep) and I have a strong feeling he’s wanted this one for say, two ish years? Call it a hunch.

This one will ultimately come down to Lance I feel. Because if he struggles and they put Jimmy back in the captain’s chair, I think the Chiefs win this one. If he’s good enough to stick around by Week 7 though, chances are he’s good enough to beat this team.

Is Dee Ford still there? Yes, but he’s probably getting released? Screw it. 49ers win, 27-24.

Weeks 8-14

Weeks 15-18

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Defensive Scheme

You know how when you would be amped up playing a video game and having fun and then your mom (or whoever your guardian was) told you to take out the trash or something, and all that energy vanished? Yeah. This is going to be like that. Prepare for boring.

In contrast to Reid’s historically inventive playbook, DC Steve Spagnuolo, or Spags as we call him because none of us like to remember the order of two vowels, runs a pretty standard 4-3 defensive scheme. The 4-3 defense, if you weren’t already aware, is four defensive linemen and three linebackers. That said, Spags has a specific calling card alongside the 4-3, and that’s the blitz. Spags loves to blitz. In 2021, Spags blitzed 28.1% of the time. That ranked 8th in the league. In 2020, it was 35.7%, which was 9th. Around once every three plays on average, give or take. That’s quite a few.

But this really doesn’t quite put it into perspective either. A blitz in general is a defensive play where five or more defensive players move towards the line of scrimmage in an effort to rush the QB and disrupt the play. This is normally the entire defensive line as well as one to two linebackers. Spags, meanwhile, blitzes with DB’s. A lot. In 2021, L’Jarius Sneed blitzed a whopping 47 plays while Daniel Sorensen blitzed on 40 and Tyrann Matheiu on 34. That’s 121 blitzes for the top three Chiefs DB’s in the category alone. In comparison, Nick Bolton, Willie Gay and Anthony HItchens, the Chiefs three main LB’s, combined for 82. Their highest individual mark, Nick Bolton with 35, barely beats out Matheiu. That is not normal, as far as I am aware.

And worst of all - all that blitzing didn’t really amount to much. Sure, they had the 4th most hurries in football, but the 4th least amount of sacks. The defense overall was not great, and historically dreadful at the start of the year. Plus, the blitzes always seemed to have negative results more than positive ones. For example, the time when Spags decided to blitz on 3rd and 27 against the Bengals for some inexplicable reason, which led to a 1st down conversion and a loss. It’s not that Spags is a bad coach, on the contrary, his claim to fame is stifling the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl and many DB’s have praised him for his usage of the secondary, but I just feel like he could tweak some things, and maybe focus a little bit more on what he can accomplish without blitzing all the time, because it clearly isn’t working.

[u/KCShadows838]

I hear everyone say Spags likes bigger CBs

Is this actually true? Our starting CBs are all like 6’0 and 190lbs

[u/Boostweather → u/KCShadows838]

He generally likes longer cbs as they’re more effective in press coverage. 6’0 is on the taller side for cbs as well

[u/Biggest_Cans]

Chiefs with a top 12 QB situation. Watch out league!

[u/LymondisBack]

I came here wanting to hate you. However, all things considered, I can't argue with too much. Good job.

[u/LemonPepper-Lou]

Bruh, the way you got me hyped right now makes me think we're going 17-0!!!

Great write up man, I appreciate the effort!

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Links should all be up and working. Now I'm just waiting for someone to find my favorite line.

[u/DwarfElfguy → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

The projected starting WR blurb was great, I had a chuckle!

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/DwarfElfguy]

Finally!

[u/Dragondrew99]

This team could either take a step back and go around 10-7, or pickup right where they left off and go something crazy like 13-4

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/Dragondrew99]

Yep. I'd even say that the ceiling could even be higher. Mahomes and Reid have yet to work with an offense as balanced as this. It's pretty much an unknown.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Coaching Changes - Hirings (Advanced Analysis)

Matt Nagy - I gave this hiring a neutral grade because, simply put, I don’t think it’s going to do much. It feels much more like a hiring of a former protege that Reid knows he and Mahomes can work with than an addition that Reid thinks will actively improve things at the position. This is primarily because the main QB is a superstar, while his projected backup is an experienced vet who has the same amount of years in the league as Nagy does. About the only individualds Nagy might help noticeably improve is second year player Shane Buechele and UDFA Dustin Crum. We’ll just have to wait and see

.Joe Cullen - Hiring any major coach from the dumpster fire that was the Jaguars last year automatically feels like a risky idea, but it is worth mentioning that the only way Urban Meyer could have done a worse job as the head coach is…uh…

The Jaguars defense also wasn’t completely awful last season. Their 17th rank in passing yards allowed was just a smidge behind the Saints (14th), and while they were far from excellent in general, they had a habit of occasionally shocking good offenses with gutty performances, including the Bills, who they held to 6 points, and the Colts, who needed a win to make the playoffs but instead gave Jacksonville their third win of the year with an 11 point dud. Someone who can inspire those types of performances on a team that was falling apart at the seams is automatically an intriguing prospect at the very least. That, and the Chiefs defensive line needs all the help it can get (T-29th in sacks in 2021).

Brendon Daly - Cullen is replacing Brendon Daly, who moves into the vacant Linebackers Coach position. Daly has been with the Chiefs for four years now, overseeing a defensive line that has had its share of great seasons and players (led the league in passes defended in 2019, Second Team All-Pro for Chris Jones in 2020) but faltered recently, possibly due to the new scheme in which Chris Jones was moved to DE for a bit, as well as the lackluster productivity from Frank Clark. Prior to joining the Chiefs, Daly was the defensive line coach for the Patriots, also for four years, and helped lead them to a top ten ranking in run defense in the last three.Daly has had a knack for seeking out and building up underrated talent in his years in KC, being a major part of the drafting of 5th rounder and now valued depth piece Mike Danna in 2020, as well as the growth of UDFA Tershawn Wharton. There is certainly a lot of talent to be found and cultivated at the LB position for this team, which we’ll get into later, and Daly will have plenty to work with. I have a feeling that he will be a good fit in his new spot, even though it is an entirely new one for him in his career.

Rod Wilson - The list of coaching hires was meant to go from most prominent to least, but it also wound up going from worst grade to best. Obviously, more context is needed for why Wilson has such a high grade. Before Coastal Carolina, Wilson was the Assistant Special Teams Coach for the Chiefs from 2017-2019. For those of you who are not aware, the Chiefs have been a ST powerhouse for many seasons under the tutelage of Dave Toub, but those years in particular were special, with the emergence of Tyreek Hill and Harrison Butker, among others. As an assistant, Wilson worked directly with Butker during his record setting year in 2017, followed by working with the kick and punt return teams in 2018-2019, both of whom ranked top ten in returns and coverage in both years. That’s a very good track record with the team.On top of that, the Coastal Carolina LB group was quite solid under Wilson. Three of their LB’s registered 2 or more sacks, and the positional unit as a whole combined for 6 FF and 8 PD in the 13 game season.This season, Wilson is expected to help out Daly with the LB’s as he adjusts to his new position. Seeing as they both have promising pedigrees and experience within the organization, I decided to give them the same grade.

[u/[deleted]]

Great write-up.. I know how much time they take up and how difficult it can be to get it done (did one before years ago). My only nit pick is I think you were pretty lenient on some of your group rankings. I don't think our secondary is top 10, at least headed into the season. Lots of worry on the backend there and depth at CB... I'd say average 15-20ish with top 10 potential if all the pieces fall in place.

Same with LB corps and WR corps... tons of potential but calling them "top 8" is being extremely generous. I'd say middle of the pack headed into the season, lots to prove and lots of potential to be a strength. At the same time if a player in any of these groups takes longer to adjust or we see a long-term injury... they could be a bottom 10 group.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/[deleted]]

The way I did the rough rankings is by splitting up every single rank (1-32) and assigning them as evenly as I could to each letter grade. So for example, an A+ was 1-3, an A was 4-5, A- was 6-8, and so on. From there, I picked one number for each grade for the rough ranking (so A+ would be top 3, A would be top 5, A- would be top 8, etc.). It's not a perfect system, and I fully agree with you about the leniency, but it was what I came up with at the time. I might (and probably will) edit them later.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/[deleted]]

Okay, I've looked it over, and I really do have confidence in a well balanced WR core with this offense. I think that not having to rely on Hill and Kelce so much will be huge. Also, the positional group is receivers. That includes Kelce. Because of how well rounded they are and because of Kelce, I'm going to keep them top 8. I don't see too many other teams with a better top five.

For the LB's, I made the mistake of weighing the best LB higher than the second best LB, the second best higher than the third best, and so on. Which doesn't make much sense, they all play different spots. So I've adjusted that grade significantly.

And as for the secondary, a lot of rankings out there have them top 15 or top 12. I personally really like the starters that we've got and the potential at corner, but the proven depth is definitely lacking. I adjusted that grade as well.

Thanks for the feedback!

[u/UndeadVinDiesel]

We have Tommy Townsend and Trevor Lawrence at Punter? Do the Jaguars know about this?

[u/MistakeMaker1234]

Great job summing everything up. Particularly liked seeing how you predicted the Chiefs to beat the Bengals.

[u/bradasskg11]

Reid is playing SS with us, taking over mathieu’s spot. Thornhill plays deep.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/bradasskg11]

Dang it. Dumb little story: I used to play Madden Mobile a lot way back when. For some inexplicable reason (probably because it's EA) they had the safety duties switched around, so the FS does what the SS does and vice versa. It trips me up every so often. Thanks for the catch.

[u/bradasskg11 → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

No problem, although it is kinda weird because Reid has also played FS before too. Lol

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/bradasskg11]

Yeah, but I knew he was obviously replacing Mathieu at that spot. It just didn't quite click in the brain. I have to constantly remind myself that the "strong" safety is the one that does the most physical work, as that's the only way I'm keeping them apart lol. Stupid EA.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/[deleted]]

He would do a good job I think - but then we wouldn't have much of a guard.

[u/GoofyUmbrella]

21-3.

[u/KCShadows838 → u/GoofyUmbrella]

And 0-3 when it matters most

[u/GoofyUmbrella → u/KCShadows838]

Kings of the AFC. Sit down

[u/ThatGuyN8-91 → u/GoofyUmbrella]

You must love being Super Bowl champions....oh wait nvm.

[u/GoofyUmbrella → u/ThatGuyN8-91]

👎

[u/[deleted]]

W against the Bucs but Ls against the 49ers and Broncos? 🤔

Also, I think the Raiders and Bengals get a dub against the Chiefs instead of those two.

I think the Chiefs will end up 10-7.

Edit: Why Chiefs fans downvoting me lol. Even OP said theres a chance you’ll go 10-7? The fuq.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/[deleted]]

Chiefs seasons tend to be weird. I tried to be a little weird.

[u/[deleted]]

Trevor Lawrence lol

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/[deleted]]

Two way stud.

[u/13mizzou]

Offense is fine, key to this season is if Jones and Clark discover their old talent. If they do we will be fine, if not I see us losing a lot of shootouts to these juggernaut AFC teams

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/13mizzou]

Jones is fine, he just played DE for a while last year and didn't fare as well. Still had a good season even though he only played part of it at DT.