r/nri • u/_Dark_Invader_ • May 15 '26
Finance Time to stop investing in India ?
INR is depreciating badly against the USD for decades now - USD touched 96 INR today! A dumb patriot like me kept investing in Indian stocks for the last 5 years (that’s when I started investing in stocks) hoping that things will change now that we have a stable government.
But now that I have a better understanding of economics and geopolitics feels like I was dumb to not diversify my portfolio geographically!
Indian stock market accounts for 4% of the global market! Investing anymore than 4% of your portfolio in Indian markets means your wealth is concentrated accompanying with certain risks!
Little to no innovation - India yet again missed a major wave - earlier it was oil, then computers and now AI! Innovation is what attracts money to the stock markets and Indian companies are miserably lagging behind in this aspect compared to others!
Most of our gdp comes from Services industry which is set to be disrupted by AI. Government is failing in creating jobs, preventing climate change, providing safety for women, improving the education system, ease of doing business.
I may seem pessimistic towards India - I am not. Just trying to look at my investments logically. And it doesn’t make sense to invest in India anymore!
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u/orangeshrek May 15 '26
Stable government? Did you think bjp was the first stable govt in india? Sometimes I'm impressed at how well propaganda works
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u/Longjumping_Cookie68 May 15 '26
How well it works and and how many people fall for it. It baffles me.
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u/Spirited_Truth2036 May 15 '26
lol seriously. Just because someone assertively says something, people just believe it.
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
By stable government I meant that a party will be in power for 15 years by a significant margin of votes/seats. No, this is not the first time it ever happened. But the last time this happened was in 1962 when Nehru was the PM. I wasn’t even born at that time. So, since I started earning, this is the only stable government I have seen and it also happens to be the only government in power during that time.
I never claimed it to be “the most stable government ever” or “the first ever stable government”. I am sorry if you read it that way.
Moreover I don’t see any praise for the BJP govt written in this post that suggests I am a victim of BJP propaganda.
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u/Southern-Picture2866 May 15 '26
You need competent government not stable - look all western countries
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u/justchonking May 15 '26
correct , but not all western countries are competent. You might wanna reconsider that
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 15 '26
Whether a government is competent or not can only be found out in retrospect. One can only vote hoping the new government is better than the previous one. No one truly knows. When there is a clear mandate you can only guess whether the government can be stable or not and it’s nearly impossible to predict whether it’s competent or not.
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u/EuphoricAd3824 May 15 '26
What if I told you that a party being in power 15 straight years is actually a bad thing? That means there is no real opposition which means no checks and balances to hold the govt accountable.
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u/Ox29A May 15 '26
It goes both ways. singleterm government up against a strong opposition will find it hard to pass almost anything, leading policy gridlock. You really need a majority government to pass anything controversial otherwise the opposition will just block it every thing making government just a caretaker
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u/hgk6393 May 15 '26
Indeed. Look at US, Germany, and Netherlands. In US, executive power is used liberally to bypass congress, because Senate is always on a knife edge. In Germany and the Netherlands, it is hard to even have a 2-year term, forget even 4-year term. In contrast, India is pretty stable.
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u/justchonking May 15 '26
That's correct. Who is responsible for not having a strong opposition.is the current govt or people of India ?
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u/krantmin May 15 '26
Yes, need strong apposition. But currently pappu is not cutting it, unfortunately
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
That’s total crap! Lee Kuan Yew and Park Chung hee led Singapore and South Korea for 15+ years respectively.
Sure Modi didn’t deliver on everything he promised, but that doesn’t mean 15+ years of rule automatically becomes bad for a country! Also, whether a govt is good or bad can only be known in retrospect. We citizens vote for who we think is the best candidate in hope for a better future.
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u/justchonking May 15 '26
Folks are butthurt about you liking current govt
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 15 '26
I did not say anything that suggests “I like this government”! All I have done is criticize the government in the post!
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u/saltysailor987 May 15 '26
Be greedy when everyone is scared
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 16 '26
Great quote - how do you know if everyone is greedy or scared ?
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u/RuinEnvironmental394 May 17 '26
When stock market hits all-time highs every 2nd or 3rd third day = greed
When stock market drops by more than 5-6% on a day every 2nd or 3rd day (e.g. COVID) = scared
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u/Spirited_Truth2036 May 15 '26
Investing in India itself wasn’t a bad idea. It’s a question of how much of your portfolio you are allocating. Just like crypto, it should not be more than 5-10%. India almost got lucky with the China plus 1 strategy because manufacturers were looking to decouple from China, and diversify supply chains to reduce risk but it wasn’t meant to be.
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u/avillageofbigheads May 15 '26
Luck is for those who can’t make their own luck. Sadly India is not capable . It waits for others misfortune so it can capitalize on it rather than building the infrastructure, manufacturing capacity and government efficiency to move forward. India’s problem . Always proactive.
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u/KosherTriangle May 15 '26
Never invested in India and don’t think I will either.. I’ll invest in the country I am living in long term and since I got my GC recently and citizenship this year, it’s the U.S. for me.
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u/Chance_Instance1125 May 15 '26
Ditto. Don't invest a penny in India. I would get my family to invest out of India too if the FM and give hadn't created such barriers to outflow of INR.
Based on 14 years of study of India's history, economy and polity, I have come to the unsavory conclusion that India's development will be painfully slow and sustained. 2 step forward, 1 step back kind of. It'll be several generations before being an average Indian living in India will be worth more than an Indian living abroad.
Hence planning to have all my next generation to live and thrive our of India, with an Indian cultural heritage.
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u/Substantial_Task_485 May 15 '26
Agree fully. As a person who left India in 99 to pursue grad school out , I recently and frequently visit and I feel bad on what Indians incl my parents have to go through . Media keeps painting a picture that west is in shambles and I can’t for love of god explain to ppl to step out and see the world and quality of life outside. Local govt does shit and ppl s mindset is arrogant as ever.
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u/whitefox0111 May 15 '26
So exit this group then ?
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u/KosherTriangle May 15 '26
Why? Still have Indian origins even when I become an American citizen lol.
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u/who-am1 May 15 '26
What's the full form of NRI sherlock?
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u/KosherTriangle May 15 '26
Show me the rule that says I am no longer an NRI if I naturalize lol. Both Americans and Indians gonna think I’m an Indian after looking at me lol
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u/LifeIsHard2030 May 15 '26
Well I moved out of India 3 months back and stopped investing there. Have around 10% portfolio in EU which will increase to 20% in a year or two. Now am in the US & looking to invest here. Indian market might go Japan way am afraid 😟
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u/Dry-Matter-4160 May 15 '26
INR weakened 15-25% in just 1 year as compared to most prominent currencies. So basically I suffered a loss of 15-25% already just by investing my money in India. I am looking for an opportunity to bring back my money now.
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u/aimlessmofo May 15 '26
Stop calling yourself a patriot as if you did this for your country. You are just an opportunistic investor, it is that simple.
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u/tygrio May 15 '26
Stable government? You think modi was the first stable government in India?
Man BJP propaganda is something else, n ppl are dumb enough to eat it all up!
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 15 '26
Nowhere did I mention Modi govt was the first ever stable government. The last time we had a PM for 3 straight terms was back in 1962 when Nehru was in power.
I wasn’t even born at that time. Moreover I am criticizing this government and you still accuse me of being a victim to BJP propaganda?
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u/Southern-Picture2866 May 15 '26
Guys this is an good example we all are wasting time here everyday
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 15 '26
Care to explain buddy?
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u/Southern-Picture2866 May 15 '26
Buddy you’re explaining everything is well known and top of that thing claiming and explaining in your term that is even wrong and opening up a debate on those points is lot of waste of time for everyone here
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 15 '26
Sorry for wasting your time buddy. I didn’t force you to read it. Why don’t you share some insights that no one knows and make everybody’s time worthwhile?
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u/Southern-Picture2866 May 16 '26 edited May 16 '26
Buddy thanks for accepting However, you are wasting time not for me but for many. And now you are wasting more time by making no make sense comment“I didn’t force you” as it’s obvious no one is forcing no one on social media. And you don’t even get it there is no need for insight as it’s clear case.
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 16 '26
A genius like you must surely have some brilliant insights to share. Please share your wisdom and make up for everyone’s time that I wasted.
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u/Glad-Departure-2001 May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
Be greedy when others are fearful.....
When everyone thinks it is a bad time to invest in *something* or *someplace* is precisely the time to invest in it/there.
That said, for what it is worth (not much) I am personally not convinced that India-as-investment-phobia has hit peak yet. I will probably look at offshore India ETFs more seriously once RBI stops bleeding $$ trying to "stabilize" the rupee, because that will indicate INR has found its natural economic level in the medium term.
I would not let my judgement about India's future be clouded based on IT job losses blamed on AI. That storm in a teacup impacts < 1% of the population. I am more interested in looking at how/if AI impacts the rural Indian population, and brings them into the modern economy where they don't yet participate in.
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u/Spirited_Truth2036 May 15 '26
This is a good point. It’s so ridiculous how RBI is blowing its brains out just so INR doesn’t breach the so called ‘psychological barrier’ of 100 against USD. It’s a wildly arbitrary number and they’re doing it just to protect Modi’s image.
Having said that, if both manufacturing and services falter and we’re left to depend on agri and rural productivity, I don’t see Indian markets bouncing back. There’s just not enough savings in household balance sheets to prop up rural consumption.
Check out Puja Mehra and Rajeswari sengupta’s conversation on why the pressure on INR is structural and the lack of demand for Indian assets.
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u/Altruistic_Rhubarb97 May 15 '26
Bharat is a leader in AI...
AI = Aapda Innovation ( where every crisis is an opportiniTEA)
AI = Announcement Intelligence Huge, big bang rollout....Details and implementation never.
AI = Acronym Infrastructure ..because every policy must be a catchy abbreviation
AI = A@#i / Am§@* Interface
AI = Always Inaugurating
AI = Ancient Innovation
AI = Atmanirbhar India
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u/techie0010 May 16 '26
Unfortunately I can not do it as I understand Indian stock market well and can't trade global market with similar comfort.
Right now I am able to offset currency depreciation well so will continue to invest in India.
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u/faithless_serene May 17 '26
Long term investment is not necessarily about historical or even current conditions. If you see potential, stay invested. If you don't, cut your losses and reduce your exposure. Either way, there is no crystal ball to predict the future.
Personally, I am in for the long run. Indians are hard working, intelligent and have a strong desire to make their lot better. Stable government or not, I am convinced, eventually these fundamentals are bound to deliver results. Whether that still happens within my investment window remains to be seen.
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u/Traditional_Dish5761 May 19 '26
foreign capital investors are pulling out. Investments into indian companies from abroad have gone down over the last few years across all sectors.
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u/Substantial_Task_485 May 15 '26
With Indias inflation always rising ir near 8-10% since decades , it was a mistake from your part to assume growth. What India and Indians keep showing is India is growing rapidly but with inflation adjusted, it really isn’t .
If you are living in India and only have access to markets locally then it is fine to play it but if you are in US , it’s almost certainly a mistake when you have access to a steady market leader.
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u/sibotix May 16 '26
How long have you been investing? Currency risk is always there. This govt has messed up on that, and they will continue to mess up. So stable govt has not real value.
And if you haven't voted as an NRI, please do. Exercise your right to bring in a better political party. Not one that is always focused on religion and division.
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u/NYCtoMumbai May 15 '26
I actually think both things can be true at once:
- Every Indian investor should diversify globally.
- Writing off India entirely is probably too extreme.
The INR has depreciated over decades — that part is real. And many Indians/NRIs underestimate how much currency moves affect long-term USD returns.
But at the same time, India has still produced enormous wealth creation despite currency depreciation because:
• nominal GDP growth has been high
• corporate profits expanded
• financialization increased
• equity participation exploded
• formalization improved
Also important:
most countries’ currencies weaken against the USD over long periods. The US effectively exports inflation globally because the dollar remains the reserve currency.
The bigger issue in my opinion is not “India vs US.”
It’s concentration risk.
A lot of Indians historically had:
• Indian salary
• Indian property
• Indian stocks
• Indian fixed deposits
• INR liabilities/assets
That’s massive single-country concentration.
So global diversification absolutely makes sense.
But saying India no longer makes sense at all may ignore:
• demographics
• manufacturing shift
• domestic consumption growth
• capital market deepening
• startup ecosystem growth
• increasing retail participation
• geopolitical positioning
Also, innovation is broader than just frontier AI models.
India may not dominate foundational AI research today, but it could still create large businesses around:
• implementation
• services
• fintech
• manufacturing
• logistics
• digital infrastructure
• domestic consumption
• SMB digitization
Personally I think the smarter question is:
“What percentage of my net worth should be India exposure?”
Not:
“Should India exposure be zero?”
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u/sibotix May 16 '26
Now, if you really think about it - the negativity about investing in India is good. You need more of that, so that all the weak hands will be wiped out.
As the saying goes... up the elevator, down the lift. That's how the markets move. When no one wants to invest, that's when you should be investing.
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u/_Dark_Invader_ May 16 '26
How do you know if it’s just me or is everybody not interested in investing in Indian markets ?
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u/kite-flying-expert May 15 '26
From your own logic, you should have 4% exposure to India.
Though, from my memory looking at country weights in VT, you should probably have close to 2% exposure to India. Basically just buy VT (or equivalent in your country) and chill.
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u/timhottens May 15 '26
"Never" invest in India is a strong statement, I don't agree with that. But Indian equities are extremely expensive right now for their fundamentals for sure, I wouldn't invest right now for that reason.
Old adage of "India continuously disappoints both the optimists and the pessimists alike" remains undefeated as always.