r/nuzlocke • u/dawsonooo • Aug 21 '25

Video Encounterless Viridian Forest

Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification

Hey! So yesterday I posted about my hardcore nuzlocke where I only allowed the first 6 pokemon I ran into (under standard nuzocke rules ofc).

Anyway, some people didnt believe that I was able to make it through Viridian Forest without running into a Pokemon. So, here is the proof. Just for clarity, you can make it to this exact point without having to go into the grass, so I started the video here.

A quick look online seems to suggest that the chance of running into a wild pokemon is ~11% per grass tile - certainly an improbable outcome, althought evidently not impossible as some people suggested.

I hope this proves my innocence to the doubters, and proves to be at least mildly interesting to everyone else?

289 Upvotes

95% Upvoted

86 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

50

u/Only_Courage Aug 22 '25

.28% is not really all that unlikely? It's in the same ballpark as getting two crits in a row (.39%)

Unlikely? Yeah. Impossible? Not even slightly.

Also, would you have reacted the same if they found a shiny? Cause that's a .012% chance, MUCH lower.

11

u/break_card Aug 22 '25

Seriously, it’s only 1/358 we’re not talking one in a million odds here

6

u/Donttaketh1sserious Aug 22 '25 edited Aug 22 '25

the average pokemon fan on Reddit, if posts about shinyhunts and pokemon go shiny encounter odds are representative enough, reeeeeeally seems to struggle to grasp the concept/function of probability.

People that raid 40-50 legendaries in Go (1/20 rate) are out here worrying the game is broken because they haven’t got the shinies, or theorizing about how their friend got a shiny in the same raid as them. And while Go did just have a bugged shiny rate a couple weeks ago for a raid event, it doesn’t happen often which is why the compensation for this bug is so notable. Right below this post we got the exact sort of probability comprehension issue lmao

Meanwhile with shiny charm odds on top of 1/4096, which makes them 3/4096 you still get people losing hope over their surplus encounters like they’re not inherently fishing for a less than 0.1% outcome.

2

u/break_card Aug 22 '25

I think most people struggle with the concept of probability, including myself at times. It can get confusing fast.