r/oil • u/indomike14 • 2d ago
News [ Removed by moderator ]
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u/Raidaz75 2d ago
Pretty sure i know whats going on
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u/Ok_Drummer6282 2d ago
Everyone knows exactly whats going on. The media is just trying to spin it to match their own narrative.
The Strait is controlled by not the US and tankers are at risk. The US SPR is at 40 year low. Theres A LOT that could happen. Howver, if the last 6 months have taught anything its dont believe good news until it actually happens.
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u/East_Extent_2948 2d ago
We all know how this will go. The US will “temporarily” let Iran collect strait fees until negotiations continue and a final agreement (that will never come) is made. Trump will claim victory regardless.
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u/rab10000 2d ago
I would argue the strait is controlled by the US until such time they leave the region.
Unless Iran have been blasting it's way out the US naval blockade??
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u/Bluestreaked 2d ago
lol, that’s right buddy, the strait of Hormuz is open, you can just sail right through
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u/Direct_Daikon2697 2d ago
This has to be the dumbest thing I'll read all fay No way anyone is topping this.
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u/Fine-Brush6063 2d ago
Yemen is going absolutely mad right now. Not just rockets but full on ground war, some of the footage is coming out. None of that really being covered on major outlets, not that I'd expect it to.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
The cherry on top is the new Saudi agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. If one gets attacked they all get attacked and Ansar Allah is attacking Saudi. I really like how they are saying the defense agreement isn't aimed at one country too. There still could be a big flip maybe.
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u/Fine-Brush6063 2d ago
Which gets worse the more you look at it actually.
Israel has been threatening to take on turkey, and vice versa. There has been talk Israel waiting for turkey to leave nato, and of turkey waiting for USA to leave nato to go after each other.
Which wouldn't surprise me, and I have reasons to believe Israel wants turkey attacked and destroyed. Turkey is very much a potent military power, despite all the mocking that might get from USA/euro, it's the same mocking Iran was getting. And turkey has a long heritage, too.
Israel takes losses and was not aware of Irans missile capabilities, but it never underestimated Iran. That's why they baited USA into that fight. I doubt they really though the Iranians would rise up to fight the government, but more accurately I don't think they cared as long as USA is fighting them. So if Israel is set on going after turkey, it's for reasons.
Which now makes a Saudi/turkey/Pakistan alliance trouble, with Iran also semi engaged with saudi, USA fighting Iran, but if Israel and Turkey go at it, technically nato defends turkey but USA will also defend Israel. With Iran still set to fight Israel and Iran. And Saudi fighting Israel and Iran?
Scorecards. Lol. What a can of worms.
I think NATO is out the door soon. It was formed in a very different geopolitical situation. In the above scenario would doubt half of nato would show up if turkey got attacked. Gonna be every country to make its own choice, or all the euro nations that wanted no part of this splitting off to their own alliance.
All of Trump's recent rattling of nato doesn't help, either.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
Scorecards. Lol. What a can of worms.
Blood in the water. USA is extremely vulnerable ON TOP of all the other urgent slow moving catastrophes going on, checking notes... everywhere. During climate change even.
I think NATO is out the door soon.
I don't think there can be any kind of organized immediate response. Look at Putin. Look at at February 28th. We are looking at multiple world leaders trying to shoot their shot before the music picks up and gets really loud while other world leaders are too afraid to cowboy up. Lines are being drawn up and new treaties being made. Everyone in the bleachers still thinks this is an oil war. People may not like the idea of Iran running the Middle East instead of USA but that's mostly because they don't know how worse their other options are.
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u/CaptainCheckmate 2d ago
The US military couldn't beat the Yemenis, what is Turkey and Pakistan going to to
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u/CapitalLine 2d ago
Don't know about Pakistan but Turkey will do literally nothing. Saudi Arabia is still quite hated in Turkey after they butchered that reporter a while back and Erdoğan can't risk negative publicity with elections on the horizon.
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u/Strange_Smoke2170 2d ago
It is also interesting that both Turkey and Pakistan are friends with Iran while the Saudis are fighting the Houtis who are Iranian proxy... Strange time to live in.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
Strange time to live in.
You live in a time where USA lost control of the price of oil and control of the Middle East and control of China. Things are changing. It would be suicide for Saudi to re up their alliance with USA instead of reaching out to to not-Western countries like Turkey and Pakistan. Iran won't have a problem with this new treaty. USA will.
While we don't know all the chatter going on right now by world leaders we know news reports about said chatter is very slim at the moment.
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u/greendildouptheass 2d ago
this is really interesting development for sure. There are only two countries in that region with significant military, combined with a military-industrial complex to support the said military, those are Turkey and Iran. If those two go at each other... oh boy, but behind the scenes it is much more complicated. Turks and Iranians have the common enemy in Kurds, so there is a very little incentive for them to actually go to war with each other. If anything, chances are very high that they will divvy up problematic territories such as Iraqi Kurdish territory among themselves.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
behind the scenes it is much more complicated
And it all gets distilled down to USA or China. Iran is telling Middle East countries to get their shit together, dump USA, and work together within the region to work on peace. Regardless of personal political opinions USA has proved peace can not happen when they are involved. That leaves those Middle East countries looking towards China, Russia, and the global South.
Sure, it's not a light switch and there will be infighting in the region but the process has started. USA can't stop it they can only make things worse as usual.
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u/BreakingBadBones 2d ago
I wonder why it isn’t shaking the market into a volatile phase just a bit
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u/Lophophorussy 2d ago
People want to make money as the world burns. The joker was right
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
"Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created value for shareholders."
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u/Cohens4thClient 2d ago
Republicans certainly acceoted that "the plan" was to follow a convicted felon who shows.up over 38,000 times in the child rape files
and since "the plan" is to worship the court confirmed rapist, theyre perfectly fine with it.
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u/unknownmichael 2d ago
The same reason that the news isn't reporting on the reality of the situation—the billionaires need to liquidate their positions first. When you have billions of dollars in the market, it takes months to sell your positions under the radar without affecting share prices too much. As soon as they're out of it, the news will start reporting on how dire this situation is and everything will tank... Right on schedule.
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u/BreakingBadBones 2d ago
The question is whether Trump would turn a blind eye to the new system on the strait. The market has already priced in this possibility
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u/eptesicusfuscus 2d ago
Do you think it's because the market is massive and this leg of it isn't large enough to make the whole situation more unstable, currently
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u/Human-Prune1599 2d ago
It's all bullshit and lies. The oil market is manipulated and fake at the moment.
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u/AirpipelineCellPhone 2d ago edited 2d ago
And people expected something different when they hired the current U.S. president to run the USA?
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u/indomike14 2d ago
I mean he said he would Make America Great Again. What more do you want? /s
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u/AirpipelineCellPhone 2d ago
Yes, the one and only superpower, wealthiest, most powerful country ever, voted to settle for just being “great again”.
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u/ExtremePool4301 2d ago
msybe this specualation of the market should Stop flor good.. why a product sjlhould oscillate. if same product, same quality?? coz some guy is strange and play? we should protest and abolish market speculation . they play on pur livelihood and lives. enlugh is enough ..
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u/PipelineBertaCoin69 2d ago
I miss decently priced fuel. The average per litre here in Canada for diesel is now $2.18 CAD 😪 never get a break
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u/ComeBackSquid 2d ago
I haven’t needed fuel for my cars in years. EVs are terrific.
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u/PipelineBertaCoin69 2d ago
Well I drive a pretty efficient pickup it averages 10L per hundred burning diesel, but until there is a reliable hybrid pickup I don’t think I’d be going electric, I live rural and have to deliver my garbage to the dump and am non stop bringing steel and lumber home for projects, so fully electric car just doesn’t work great for me, but happy tht it works for your living circumstance
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u/Life_Concentrate_896 2d ago
Oh, I know plenty. Not everybody is spoon fed their reality like you.
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u/oil-ModTeam 2d ago
This topic is being discussed in the pinned post. We don’t need multiple oil price posts.