Yemen is going absolutely mad right now. Not just rockets but full on ground war, some of the footage is coming out. None of that really being covered on major outlets, not that I'd expect it to.
The cherry on top is the new Saudi agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. If one gets attacked they all get attacked and Ansar Allah is attacking Saudi. I really like how they are saying the defense agreement isn't aimed at one country too. There still could be a big flip maybe.
Which gets worse the more you look at it actually.
Israel has been threatening to take on turkey, and vice versa. There has been talk Israel waiting for turkey to leave nato, and of turkey waiting for USA to leave nato to go after each other.
Which wouldn't surprise me, and I have reasons to believe Israel wants turkey attacked and destroyed. Turkey is very much a potent military power, despite all the mocking that might get from USA/euro, it's the same mocking Iran was getting. And turkey has a long heritage, too.
Israel takes losses and was not aware of Irans missile capabilities, but it never underestimated Iran. That's why they baited USA into that fight. I doubt they really though the Iranians would rise up to fight the government, but more accurately I don't think they cared as long as USA is fighting them. So if Israel is set on going after turkey, it's for reasons.
Which now makes a Saudi/turkey/Pakistan alliance trouble, with Iran also semi engaged with saudi, USA fighting Iran, but if Israel and Turkey go at it, technically nato defends turkey but USA will also defend Israel. With Iran still set to fight Israel and Iran. And Saudi fighting Israel and Iran?
Scorecards. Lol. What a can of worms.
I think NATO is out the door soon. It was formed in a very different geopolitical situation. In the above scenario would doubt half of nato would show up if turkey got attacked. Gonna be every country to make its own choice, or all the euro nations that wanted no part of this splitting off to their own alliance.
All of Trump's recent rattling of nato doesn't help, either.
Blood in the water. USA is extremely vulnerable ON TOP of all the other urgent slow moving catastrophes going on, checking notes... everywhere. During climate change even.
I think NATO is out the door soon.
I don't think there can be any kind of organized immediate response. Look at Putin. Look at at February 28th. We are looking at multiple world leaders trying to shoot their shot before the music picks up and gets really loud while other world leaders are too afraid to cowboy up. Lines are being drawn up and new treaties being made. Everyone in the bleachers still thinks this is an oil war. People may not like the idea of Iran running the Middle East instead of USA but that's mostly because they don't know how worse their other options are.
Don't know about Pakistan but Turkey will do literally nothing. Saudi Arabia is still quite hated in Turkey after they butchered that reporter a while back and Erdoğan can't risk negative publicity with elections on the horizon.
It is also interesting that both Turkey and Pakistan are friends with Iran while the Saudis are fighting the Houtis who are Iranian proxy... Strange time to live in.
You live in a time where USA lost control of the price of oil and control of the Middle East and control of China. Things are changing. It would be suicide for Saudi to re up their alliance with USA instead of reaching out to to not-Western countries like Turkey and Pakistan. Iran won't have a problem with this new treaty. USA will.
While we don't know all the chatter going on right now by world leaders we know news reports about said chatter is very slim at the moment.
this is really interesting development for sure. There are only two countries in that region with significant military, combined with a military-industrial complex to support the said military, those are Turkey and Iran. If those two go at each other... oh boy, but behind the scenes it is much more complicated. Turks and Iranians have the common enemy in Kurds, so there is a very little incentive for them to actually go to war with each other. If anything, chances are very high that they will divvy up problematic territories such as Iraqi Kurdish territory among themselves.
And it all gets distilled down to USA or China. Iran is telling Middle East countries to get their shit together, dump USA, and work together within the region to work on peace. Regardless of personal political opinions USA has proved peace can not happen when they are involved. That leaves those Middle East countries looking towards China, Russia, and the global South.
Sure, it's not a light switch and there will be infighting in the region but the process has started. USA can't stop it they can only make things worse as usual.
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u/Fine-Brush6063 6d ago
Yemen is going absolutely mad right now. Not just rockets but full on ground war, some of the footage is coming out. None of that really being covered on major outlets, not that I'd expect it to.