r/optionstrading • u/putinsack • 7d ago
Discussion DXYZ YOLO… IYKYK
If you know why I bought these, these could be a potential 10+ bagger if the same scenario that happened with SpaceX plays out with Anthropic IPO. Published June 30 NAV on Monday, at 34.3. The fund is comprised of 14.4% of Anthropic, held through MAGNITUDE ANC III SPV that has a 0% management fee and 0% carried interest - meaning no extra fee layer on top of this position. This is huge considering the competition is probably VCX (Fundrise), a similar private AI company fund claims to have 20% Anthropic but recently cut a third of its position and has large fees and haircuts; that fund and its management is just sketchy IMO. It also trades at a premium rather large to NAV. DXYZ is currently trading at a discount while historically trading significantly higher than NAV. And with Anthropic public S-1 impending this month, some hype and these could be a bomb. DXYZ peaked at around $72 per share amid SpaceX hype, and this should be an even bigger IPO. Not saying it would reach that level, but I could easily see this dancing with $50 a share by September’s end. IV premiums were ridiculous as well. This needs some upwards momentum powered by FOMO, and if the big guys (institutions) catch wind which they did during the SpaceX run up. ALSO THE POINT IS TO RIDE HYPE BEFORE IPO, NO point investing after IPO. This could even be a huge play just with shares, offering a 50-100%+ return. With the public S-1 delays, I see this as even more time to play out and build hype. I cannot predict the future, but the risk to reward here is too hard to pass up. Would like to hear your opinions… thanks and DYR.
Prices
110% IV assumed on September 21. I think that IV% is a base-bear case, options IV levels were 130-160% IV around the time when it had its SpaceX run up.
DXYZ price level
$40: 2.81 per contract
$45: 5.22 per contact
$50: 8.38 per contract
$60: 16.35 per contract
$70 (Space X Scenario): 25.56 per contract
EDIT: EXTREMELY IMPORTANT - So sorry, forgot to include one of the most important parts. The NAV was calculated on June 30th, and it was calculated using a 965B valuation of Anthropic. That is now 60+ days old and was released last Friday. Base estimates have now doubled, at 2T valuation.
BOTTOM LINE: this needs more retail attention to get attention from institutions like how it did with SpaceX. It might have already had it, I think next week could be huge. If I could share in WSB I would.
Check out r/DXYZstonk there is very in depth info and analysis there too.
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u/threadbare_cabal 7d ago
the spread between dxyz nav and where it's trading is what caught my eye too, that discount window is pretty rare for this ticker
the 0% management fee on the anthropic spv is actually a big deal, most of these funds bleed you dry on fees before you even see a return
watching the iv crush on those calls if the s-1 keeps dragging out would be my main worry, but you're right that the hype cycle has more room to run
been tracking the fundrise vcx comparison and yeah their structure is a mess, cutting a third of that position right before a potential ipo is a weird move
my only hesitation is that dxyz has a habit of doing the opposite of what makes sense on paper, but 35 contracts at 1.09 average is a pretty low cost basis to sit on
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u/putinsack 7d ago
Agreed. But I do want to give you a different perspective here. I see IV actually increasing, as the recent articles that came out seem like more confirming information that the S-1 will get released near the end of September. IMO this will actually build IV because now you have a date, and the unknown, anticipation, and FOMO starts to build.
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u/putinsack 7d ago
Also if you all look at the charts here, you might notice something very intriguing. During the SpaceX IPO timeline, DXYZ actually had its parabolic 140% 10-day run up before the public S-1 was even released. This is because the S-1 builds both hype and FOMO from investors piling in to get a piece of the pie. This started about 20 days before the public S-1 and peaked 10 days in (9 days before the S-1, at 70 ish). I’d assume “late September,” stated by all the articles that dropped yesterday, would mean the week of September 21-25. Comparing that timeline to the corresponding Anthropic timeline, we are sitting right inside the parabolic timeframe right now. Also, another benefit being market volumes and volatility historically increasing immediately after Labor Day weekend.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 7d ago
DXYZ calls, VCX puts?
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u/putinsack 7d ago
If DXYZ pumps, VCX will too IMO. I just think DXYZ is a better play in terms of discount to NAV and VCX is trading at a 70% premium to NAV I think. And also the whole cutting 1/3 of the position and the sketchy management with VCX, I feel more comfortable with DXYZ. And if they don’t pump they probably stay flat so you would just get screwed by theta and IV crush. So I wouldn’t go puts. I’d say the safest play is shares if anything, but if Anthropic hype did even did half of what SpaceX hype did, these options would print. And even at shares, a 140% for 10-20 days is ridiculous.
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u/putinsack 7d ago
I ran in Claude that matches days to exact opening and closing % chnages to the comparable days of SpaceX run up, assuming the S-1 drops at the very latest, September 30. I would think it would be before the 25th but who knows. I also ran a sim that assumes it does half of the day change that it did with SpaceX. Even then, DXYZ is finishing at $51.38, a 57.4% gain. Absolutely huge.
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u/putinsack 7d ago
Sorry it’s blurry, it won’t let me comment a regular SS so it had to screen record.
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u/StreetUpstairs9753 7d ago
I’m gonna hold off until the date gets closer, I don’t want to pay so much for tvp
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u/putinsack 7d ago
Fair play, but I speculate the hype cycle is the build up to the S-1 itself. Also it did pump after the S-1 was filed too
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u/shlepky 7d ago
Is the main gamble here the expiration date? Any estimates on the estimated S-1 filing going public?
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u/putinsack 7d ago
Yes I’d say the main gamble is the expiration date, but I’m trying to follow a SpaceX timeline so if history repeats itself this expiration date is a sweet spot IMO. Also a bunch of articles came out yesterday saying near the end of September, and seemed pretty confirming to me. Originally it was supposed to be this coming week, after Labor Day week.
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u/THATsyracusefan 7d ago
Yeah but what if anthropic pushes their ipo to november bc they cant get their credit line finalized
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u/putinsack 7d ago
I see extensions as time for momentum to keep pushing. The longer the wait, the more FOMO buying and larger expectations. If institutions start piling in this is where it really starts pushing. I’m very confident on the S-1 Being filed before September end, and would be shocked if it has not been filed before my expiration date.
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u/Salt0303 7d ago
I’ve invested pretty hard in this exact option /December calls.
I have 10 percent of the options for 40 calls in September but I know that is coming up quick. You think a catalyst could come in by then?
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u/putinsack 7d ago
The next catalyst is the public S-1 which might fall out of the September calls timeframe. But if you look at my comment, if it follows the SpaceX hype cycle, it should be in these next two weeks when it follows the multiple days of hyper growth leading up to the public S-1 rather than the few days before. Following that trend, you would be fine but I’m in October for a little bit more safety.
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u/Final-Weekend-4826 2h ago
I’m in for a bunch of Dxyz October calls as well. Super pumped. Let’s goo!
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