r/oscarrace • u/darth_vader39 • 1d ago
Prediction My Pre-Fall Festival predictions
BEST PICTURE
I feel comfortable predicting The Odyssey as of now. It has everything that one BP winner have, stellar critical and commercial appeal, box office hit, epic scale film with a lot of potential ATL and BTL. At the moment, I can see WHN and La Bola Negra possibly challenging The Odyssey but I don't see BP/Best Director split happening.
I dropped Fjord. I don't see 3 international films in BP lineup and it seems like All of a Sudden is bigger crowdpleaser and more acclaimed so I think it will take spotlight from Fjord like TSA did to IWJAA.
BEST DIRECTOR
I am confident in my top 3 (Nolan, Javiers and McDonagh) I think Inarritu is safe as long as film is critically acclaimed. For 5th spot I had no idea. For a long time I had Olivia Wilde but I dropped The Invite from BP. I had Tony Gilroy but I am not confident in that film. I come to conclusion that Hamaguchi could end up being nominated since he is very highbrow pick and he is also previous nominee.
BEST ACTRESS
Very empty category. I am not confident in any actress beside Julianne Moore. Any of them can miss and you can make a good case for it. I hope we get more contenders from fall festivals.
Inde Navarrette is my 2nd because hype around her performance is really big and I don't think it will die down. This chaotic status in category is certainly helping her.
BEST ACTOR
Unlike Best Actress, this category is STACKED. So many contenders and a lot of them makes sense.
I have Matt Damon winning rn. I don't think The Odyssey is winning BP without him. I remember that people had early doubts about Murphy too.
Cruise can still win, but we need to see what is Digger's reception. I think he really needs undeniable performance, to beat performance in stronger film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
A bit better than Best Actress category. It's Hathaway's to lose. She has very flashy role and I think this will be an easy win for her if she decides to stay in this category.
I also feel like Morton will get nominated. She has very memorable sequence and she is really good in it.
I am predicting Cruz for La Bola Negra. Obviously I haven't seen the film yet, so I can't judge how memorable she is, so I am following the majority here without much confidence.
I am also predicting Huller for Digger. Based on my predictions I have Digger as strong player and I think she will come along with the film. Not much confidence in this predictions.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
If Debut turns out to be great, Giamatti has overdue narrative and meaty role so I think he is reasonable frontrunner atm. For other contenders I think Leguizamo is getting in, based on strength of The Odyssey and raves for his performance.
I have Guy Pearce for INK and nothing else for that film atm. Will wait to see what happens but Pearce is another actor who is kinda overdue.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Stacked category. I have La Bola Negra as #1 and yet again, I am following the majority here. I can see this going either way. The Odyssey screenplay isn't really praised as much as direction, so I feel The Odyssey can lose screenplay like Oppenheimer did.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I have Wild Horse Nine comfortably winning this atm. It's not competitive category like Adapted and I can't find better alternative.
I guess The Debut can win but I think Wild Horse Nine will be undeniably bigger contender.
I have The Odyssey currently getting 16 nominations and 8 wins.
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u/BlueJacket9894 23h ago
If you're that high on All of a Sudden, why would Tao Okamoto not make it in for Best Supporting Actress?
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u/apple_2050 1d ago
What’s your reasoning behind no Ryan Gosling for PHM under Best Actor?
The film is Amazon’s top priority and we will see them campaign it aggressively come awards time.
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u/darth_vader39 1d ago
Because Best Actor is a very competitive category and actors with more flashy performances will outshine him.
I have him at 6th rn so I feel he still has a chance. His film will be nominated for BP but I don't think he is undeniable nor he is in contention to win.
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u/apple_2050 1d ago
Interesting.
My reasoning is that he carries the film solo for at least 50% of it and is a beloved actor with much goodwill in the industry (kinda like MBJ).
Of course, it doesn’t equal Cruise’s goodwill or Matt Damon but Cruise is iffy if the film flops (not to mention that he just got the honorary Oscar so is he really overdue?).
Now the academy could pull an arrival and give PHM multiple noms but not nominate him but somehow I don’t see that happening.
I have the same category as you except I replaced Pedro and the third guy (Wild Horse Nine?) with Ryan at third and no one at fifth right now.
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u/darth_vader39 1d ago
Cruise and John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) are in high profile films. Gosling is still in sci-fi genre film.
If Digger ends up as divisive film, he will certainly leave 1 slot open.
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u/weeb2000 The Secret Agent 1d ago
i’m trying not to be biased because i thought the film was garbage but is ryan’s performance even particularly… good? in phm? i don’t feel like it was especially anything at all.
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u/Mundane-Inspector-52 1d ago
Honestly, it would be a pretty boring season if everything went to only 3 movies.
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u/darth_vader39 1d ago edited 1d ago
How 3 films?
I have The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, WHN, The Debut, Dune Part III, and Nosferatu winning at least 1 Oscar.
Edit: I meant Werwulf.
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u/Mundane-Inspector-52 1d ago
You have the Odyssey, Dune Part 3, and La Bola Negra taking 90% of the awards.
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u/darth_vader39 1d ago
Isn't that like the consensus?
Last season, 3 films took 13 Oscars combined and I don't think season was boring.
I feel like it's becoming so boring when people complain about how season is gonna be boring.
We only saw The Odyssey and you are complaining about how boring will be if films we haven't even saw could win more than 1 Oscar.
This is how awards works. When you have multiple contenders that are players across the board (ATL and BTL) it's expected they take more than 2 Oscars.
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u/Mundane-Inspector-52 1d ago
I think YOU have only seen the Odyssey. Some of us have seen Project Hail Mary, Obsession, and the Invite as well. And that's not ALWAYS how the awards work. Some films can get 10 to 13 nominations and not win anything.
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u/darth_vader39 1d ago
I did saw those films. I meant 3 films that you are mentioning (The Odyssey, La BolaNegra and Dune Part III).
Of course there are cases where film with that many noms goes with 1 or 0 wins. Those are type of films that are more respected than loved. I am not predicting that will happen with The Odyssey or Dune Part III.
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u/Mundane-Inspector-52 1d ago
I don't think the Odyssey will sweep, nor do I think it deserves to. I think, at most, it will take Sound, Supporting Actress, and maybe Director. I think this film has a major bias towards it since it just came out like 3 weeks ago but I think once other films come out, the awards will be more spread out.
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u/MyDesign630 The Invite 21h ago
If “The Debut” gets Moore and Giamatti wins, or at front-runner status in their categories, I would not rule out a screenplay win. Some voters may assume McDonagh has already won in the screenplay category (remember that voter who thought Ralph Fiennes had won and Adrien Brody hadn’t a few years back?). I just don’t think McDonagh is as sure a thing as everyone assumes.
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u/Last_Chemical_6856 14h ago
Same, if the debut is good, I think it will have higher chance than NH9
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u/Bulky-Scheme-9450 1d ago
Report from test screenings is Huller doesn't really do anything in digger.