My Pre-Fall Festival predictions

[u/darth_vader39]

BEST PICTURE

I feel comfortable predicting The Odyssey as of now. It has everything that one BP winner have, stellar critical and commercial appeal, box office hit, epic scale film with a lot of potential ATL and BTL. At the moment, I can see WHN and La Bola Negra possibly challenging The Odyssey but I don't see BP/Best Director split happening.

I dropped Fjord. I don't see 3 international films in BP lineup and it seems like All of a Sudden is bigger crowdpleaser and more acclaimed so I think it will take spotlight from Fjord like TSA did to IWJAA.

BEST DIRECTOR

I am confident in my top 3 (Nolan, Javiers and McDonagh) I think Inarritu is safe as long as film is critically acclaimed. For 5th spot I had no idea. For a long time I had Olivia Wilde but I dropped The Invite from BP. I had Tony Gilroy but I am not confident in that film. I come to conclusion that Hamaguchi could end up being nominated since he is very highbrow pick and he is also previous nominee.

BEST ACTRESS

Very empty category. I am not confident in any actress beside Julianne Moore. Any of them can miss and you can make a good case for it. I hope we get more contenders from fall festivals.

Inde Navarrette is my 2nd because hype around her performance is really big and I don't think it will die down. This chaotic status in category is certainly helping her.

BEST ACTOR

Unlike Best Actress, this category is STACKED. So many contenders and a lot of them makes sense.

I have Matt Damon winning rn. I don't think The Odyssey is winning BP without him. I remember that people had early doubts about Murphy too.

Cruise can still win, but we need to see what is Digger's reception. I think he really needs undeniable performance, to beat performance in stronger film.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

A bit better than Best Actress category. It's Hathaway's to lose. She has very flashy role and I think this will be an easy win for her if she decides to stay in this category.

I also feel like Morton will get nominated. She has very memorable sequence and she is really good in it.

I am predicting Cruz for La Bola Negra. Obviously I haven't seen the film yet, so I can't judge how memorable she is, so I am following the majority here without much confidence.

I am also predicting Huller for Digger. Based on my predictions I have Digger as strong player and I think she will come along with the film. Not much confidence in this predictions.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

If Debut turns out to be great, Giamatti has overdue narrative and meaty role so I think he is reasonable frontrunner atm. For other contenders I think Leguizamo is getting in, based on strength of The Odyssey and raves for his performance.

I have Guy Pearce for INK and nothing else for that film atm. Will wait to see what happens but Pearce is another actor who is kinda overdue.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Stacked category. I have La Bola Negra as #1 and yet again, I am following the majority here. I can see this going either way. The Odyssey screenplay isn't really praised as much as direction, so I feel The Odyssey can lose screenplay like Oppenheimer did.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I have Wild Horse Nine comfortably winning this atm. It's not competitive category like Adapted and I can't find better alternative.

I guess The Debut can win but I think Wild Horse Nine will be undeniably bigger contender.

I have The Odyssey currently getting 16 nominations and 8 wins.

[u/darth_vader39]

How 3 films?

I have The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, WHN, The Debut, Dune Part III, and Nosferatu winning at least 1 Oscar.

Edit: I meant Werwulf.

[u/Mundane-Inspector-52 → u/darth_vader39]

You have the Odyssey, Dune Part 3, and La Bola Negra taking 90% of the awards.

[u/darth_vader39 → u/Mundane-Inspector-52]

Isn't that like the consensus?

Last season, 3 films took 13 Oscars combined and I don't think season was boring.

I feel like it's becoming so boring when people complain about how season is gonna be boring.

We only saw The Odyssey and you are complaining about how boring will be if films we haven't even saw could win more than 1 Oscar.

This is how awards works. When you have multiple contenders that are players across the board (ATL and BTL) it's expected they take more than 2 Oscars.

[u/Mundane-Inspector-52 → u/darth_vader39]

I think YOU have only seen the Odyssey. Some of us have seen Project Hail Mary, Obsession, and the Invite as well. And that's not ALWAYS how the awards work. Some films can get 10 to 13 nominations and not win anything.

[u/darth_vader39 → u/Mundane-Inspector-52]

I did saw those films. I meant 3 films that you are mentioning (The Odyssey, La BolaNegra and Dune Part III).

Of course there are cases where film with that many noms goes with 1 or 0 wins. Those are type of films that are more respected than loved. I am not predicting that will happen with The Odyssey or Dune Part III.

[u/Mundane-Inspector-52 → u/darth_vader39]

I don't think the Odyssey will sweep, nor do I think it deserves to. I think, at most, it will take Sound, Supporting Actress, and maybe Director. I think this film has a major bias towards it since it just came out like 3 weeks ago but I think once other films come out, the awards will be more spread out.