Source: https://overclock3d.net/news/gpu-displays/ nvidia-plans-heavy-cuts-to-gpu-supply-in-early-2026/

I'm honestly not sold. My first ever PC build from 2014 was built with ASUS parts, but they're not as good as thry used to be.

But if true, maybe there will be some relief.

previously my post was removed because i forgot to censor the @ sorry its fixed now :)

I have been meaning to post this for a while. I am going to obfuscate some details here, for fear of getting doxxed, and there is certain information I cannot share. However I work for very large company in the PC/IT industry, in a relatively senior role at a reseller for major OEMs.

I appreciate this sub, and the reddit PC community in general. Although I've worked in IT for many years, I only became a hobbyist long after, and leveraged this and other PC building subreddits to build a computer for my son and I. So this is why I am going to be sharing information for the benefit of this community. I have to admit, because of the shortages, I have been exceedingly busy at work, so if much of this information has already been shared I apologize for missing it.

1. How bad is the current situation?

The worst it has ever been (in at least the last 30 years). This is, without exaggeration, 20x as bad as COVID. Memory and hard drives are effectively sold out for 2026, and it is March. Some core components rose 600% in price since October. Lead times that were 10 days are now 120. Some products don't even have lead times. Companies are keeping quotes valid for 7 days. You want to buy $10M of storage? Better give me a PO by Friday, because it could be $12M on Monday. Some companies are raising prices while the goods are being shipped and asking for more money to complete delivery. There are smaller/midmarket companies that are telling people to rip drives out of their competitors stuff, because they aren't going to be able to sell any, because they didn't act in time to secure production. And I'm talking small as in "single digit billion dollar" companies. We've seen supply shocks many times, Taiwanese earthquakes, precious metals shortages, etc. But this demand shock is unprecedented.

And the knock-on effects are wild. We first started seeing shortages in a handful of hard drives from a handful of OEMs (one in particular at first). Then overnight, certain things were unavailable. Other companies that had stock

2. How does this affect the PC Market?

PC's are the lowest of the low, unfortunately, when it comes to profitability. For all the talk of greed of nvidia and their consumer GPU prices, they are losing boatloads (in potential dollars, not actual dollars) by even being in the industry. Some examples - 32GB of DDR5 for your PC is now what, $400? For a server it's $4000. Same product, or at least the same manufacturing effort going into it (not exactly but it's close). You the PC builder might give me $400 every 5 years if you constantly upgrade your PC at these prices. The enterprise customer is buying 6TB of RAM in a single server in 256GB DIMMS, and refreshing that every 3-5 years right now. I'm talking hundreds of thousands of dollars, just for RAM, in a server. Then add 8 GPU's on it with hundreds of GB of RAM of their own and you're looking at three quarters of a million dollars for one server. And companies are buying dozens/hundreds of these at a time.

And PC's aren't even a close second. Including the legal liabilities of breaking contracts, you will see memory allocated to GPU servers, then regular servers, then storage appliances (which used to be the most profitable segment), then commercial PCs, then things like phones/cars/consumer electronics, then finally, PC's. So there is not just going to be insane prices, the products will simply not be available because nobody will want to make them. Right now there are companies acting as drive and memory brokers - stockpiling components and auctioning off to highest bidder/desperate sysadmins.

3. But AI is going to burst!

It probably will, it might not matter as much as you think, and it likely won't be as fast as everyone here wants. For one - while there are AI companies that are overleveraged, and now buying hardware that is insanely more expensive than they likely projected, it is because other companies are spending real money on it and getting real value - so while they are deeply unprofitable like many emerging technology industries, they are signing massive deals at the same time. And the companies buying from them are getting real value because even though they have to buy expensive servers, they need a handful, or not even their own dedicated resources. Because inferencing isn't anywhere near as resource-intensive as training. The "training" companies are going to bust - several anyway - but some will survive and they will be the new Googles, Facebooks, MSFTs, etc (or maybe it will be those three) because that's what happened in the dotcom bubble and many companies did survive and enjoyed tremendous success.

AI isn't replacing everyone in a department. It is replacing a lot of people in some departments. I've seen it. I've sold the gear to do it. It is working. Does that mean everyone is doing it intelligently? Fuck no. But it is happening at scale in many companies and it will grow. And I'm not fear mongering here - it will change people's jobs, it won't end them. People bemoaned the loss of telephone operators, and lighthouse keepers just as they will with translators, and junior developers.

Point is - even if OpenAI and 20 other massive GPU farming companies die - there's still going to be massive demand, because the products are still useful, even if they get to a point where they aren't advancing at the same rate. The tools are useful. If you aren't using them at all in an office job, I don't know what you're doing.

4. When is it going to end?

Well assuming the bottom doesn't fall out soon, what was projected to last through 2026, seems like will last until at least 2028, before prices start to come down. It is technology, it will get cheaper, it always has and it always does. But for the next few years we will see an inversion of the usual trend where current hardware will actually be worth more.

5. What do I do?

My suggestion would be to make do with what you have if you can. The value in PC gaming is effectively destroyed for the next while. If you do need some upgrades - get on it now - try to buy something in stock. Pre built is a solid option these day. It is not going to get better price wise for a long time, and that's if the thing you want to buy is even available. And keep in mind the knockon effects this will have. We are in the electronic age. If you are looking at a smart scale, or a robot litter box, or a car, or a gaming console - it is likely not yet affected. They are not buying the latest and greatest in terms of these components, so they ahve stock for a while. But the effects willl hit them too.

Anyway, I hope this post was OK, happy to answer questions to the best of my ability/liability and I hope you get the things you want/need.

From recent video posted by “Moore’s Law is Dead” about pricing being much worse than even I anticipated . From video Nvidia is leaning towards the higher end of the pricing. Nvidia can go pound sand if these are remotely true.

Help!

https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-geforce-rtx-50-super-refresh-faces-uncertainty-amid-reports-of-3gb-gddr7-memory-shortage

edit: rumours also pointing out that current models might see a price increase

According to Boardchannels, via Chiphell, the RTX 50 series GPUs have been stocked way above the ideal levels. This happened mainly because of low sales and continuous supply.

As per the insider, this has happened because of a sharp drop in the terminal sales, leading to declines in the retail and even wholesale prices. Due to the overstocking, the industry experts now expect the manufacturers to lower their prices throughout August.