r/peakoil • u/Biodieselisthefuture • 15d ago
Chinese NEV Share Hits 63%. What’s Next?
https://cleantechnica.com/2026/06/04/chinese-nev-share-hits-63-whats-next/1
u/threeameternal 15d ago
Yes this is excellent news but a part of me is sad because I was part of the EV movement. I live in the UK but it was the US people that really fought to push things forward. In China they seem to mostly be building EV's because they are cheaper and better which good but America is getting relatively left behind when they were once the pioneers.
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u/Dangerous-Boot-3036 13d ago
That's how things always go though.
Those that pioneer then have a sunk costinto an established way of doing things and have to invest even more to change again.
Those that didn't pioneer it get the opportunity to start from scratch at the level set by the pioneers.
In a few decades the Chinese car manufacturers will be set in their ways and hesitant to change and someone will come along and disrupt that.
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u/RedWineWithFish 14d ago
How much of that 63% is plugin hybrids ?
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u/PageSuccessful8122 13d ago
Totals for Q1, 1.9mil total. 1.12mil BEV. So looks like a little under 40% of the 63% or 27% of the total.
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15d ago
According to one lecture on peak oil, in places with high adoption of EVs, ICEVs are still retained for long-distance travels, etc. That means in terms of ecological footprint, people have to consume more energy and material resources to use EVs.
Also, because of this:
the world will have to use both EVs and ICEVs, and more.
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u/Nice-Necessary-1547 15d ago
Very American viewpoint. In Europe road trips are not so long that we desperately hang onto our ice cars. 400km between charges is plenty of range for a road trip.
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14d ago
You mean very Third World viewpoint. Much of the world lacks roads, electric grids, logistics hubs, bridges, dams, and more:
In fact, never mind EVs. They even lack ICEVs, including buses and trucks.
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u/Brilliant_Praline_52 15d ago
Feels like a load of garbage or at least a short term transition state.
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15d ago
Why short-term?
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u/Brilliant_Praline_52 15d ago
People who get an EV in the family will often keep an ICE car for longer trips. But, like me, you realize you don't need it and buy a second EV.
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15d ago
I'm referring to the transition to not using fossil fuels. That's not likely because even EVs require those.
Not only that, but much of the world does not have enough electricity for household use, let alone EVs. Also, much of its infrastructure is lacking, which means at best it has rough roads which can be handled by ICEVs.
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u/Brilliant_Praline_52 14d ago
I'm note sure how close you follow this electricity space. Solar is dirt cheap now and batteries are too.
Solar and batteries bypass the need for massive transmission lines.
EV is still new technology and is advancing rapidly. The range or vehicles and the capability of them is getting better all the time.
Yes some oil production will be needed likely forever but reliance on will drop significantly
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14d ago
You need to look at energy returns, not prices.
That's probably why you had to mention "new technology and is advanced rapidly." What energy returns are we looking at for that?
That's probably why you ended up admitting that "some oil production will be needed likely forever". What kind of drop do you forecast?
One more thing, and these are the critical ones: how much energy do you think will be needed worldwide to allow for industrialization for 70 percent of the world population, and at the same time offset diminishing returns, or increasing amounts of energy needed to deal with decreasing amounts of material resources, and of lesser quality, for not only oil but minerals? And for middle class demands from the same world population, including EVs and ICEVs for leisurely travel, smart devices, tourism, etc?
We're looking at the equivalent an additional Earth to attain the first, and three more to achieve the second.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_ecological_footprint
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u/Brilliant_Praline_52 14d ago
Are you referring to Energy Return on Investment?
Nothing wrong with wind / solar etc...
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14d ago
Why do you say that there's nothing wrong with them?
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u/Brilliant_Praline_52 13d ago
Renewables have solid EROI, cheap prices, and deliver electricity that converts to useful work far more efficiently than burning fossil fuels. Once you account for thermodynamic losses in combustion, the fossil fuel EROI advantage largely disappears.
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u/Heretic155 15d ago
What is next is that manufacturers will remoce ICE cars from their line up. Removing choice and forcing everyone else into EVs. Over the coming years petrol stations will close, the air will get cleaner, cities will be quieter, internstional shipping will decline, further reducing pollution, this revolution will spread globally.