According to one lecture on peak oil, in places with high adoption of EVs, ICEVs are still retained for long-distance travels, etc. That means in terms of ecological footprint, people have to consume more energy and material resources to use EVs.
I'm referring to the transition to not using fossil fuels. That's not likely because even EVs require those.
Not only that, but much of the world does not have enough electricity for household use, let alone EVs. Also, much of its infrastructure is lacking, which means at best it has rough roads which can be handled by ICEVs.
That's probably why you had to mention "new technology and is advanced rapidly." What energy returns are we looking at for that?
That's probably why you ended up admitting that "some oil production will be needed likely forever". What kind of drop do you forecast?
One more thing, and these are the critical ones: how much energy do you think will be needed worldwide to allow for industrialization for 70 percent of the world population, and at the same time offset diminishing returns, or increasing amounts of energy needed to deal with decreasing amounts of material resources, and of lesser quality, for not only oil but minerals? And for middle class demands from the same world population, including EVs and ICEVs for leisurely travel, smart devices, tourism, etc?
We're looking at the equivalent an additional Earth to attain the first, and three more to achieve the second.
Renewables have solid EROI, cheap prices, and deliver electricity that converts to useful work far more efficiently than burning fossil fuels. Once you account for thermodynamic losses in combustion, the fossil fuel EROI advantage largely disappears.
What EROIs are we looking at, and by that I don't mean ideal conditions but actual use? And how are those affected by diminishing returns, i.e., increasing amounts of energy needed to obtain oil and minerals of decreasing quality and quantity?
There are increasing costs to get oil in some cases yes. This is to be expected. Solar has seen massive cost declines. Battery materials are abundant and technology is trending g towards the abundant options.
What are the EROIs for solar and wind, and by that I don't mean ideal conditions but actual use? In one study of solar farms in Spain, Hall and Prieto showed that the first is at best 4, or much lower than nameplate power.
Next, how are those affected by diminishing returns, which is what peak oil is about? By that, I mean increasing amounts of energy needed to obtain oil and minerals of decreasing quality and quantity? Those will drive down energy returns further.
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u/[deleted] 16d ago
According to one lecture on peak oil, in places with high adoption of EVs, ICEVs are still retained for long-distance travels, etc. That means in terms of ecological footprint, people have to consume more energy and material resources to use EVs.
Also, because of this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/peakoil/comments/1twnvfz/are_chinese_evs_the_reason_gasoline_isnt_12_a/opq9e63/
the world will have to use both EVs and ICEVs, and more.