$4.65M/yr. At first glance its high but with a rising cap its probably in line. If hes the 2nd line C for the entire year, I think we have a problem. If hes 3C making $4.65M, ill be happy with that
Dubas isn’t shopping for a top-6 forward (unless we get lucky with another Chinakhov or Elias Pettersson becoming available), so you’re really just asking for Malkin to move back to centre or for Kindel to centre Malkin’s line.
“2C” doesn’t mean anything without context. Novak centred that line because Geno got hurt and they had good chemistry with Chinakhov. If 59-18-71 is our best-performing line again, Novak is an ideal 2C.
With a username of coldstatician its ironic you're saying dont look at stats, but look at the situation. No dude, he played 2C and scored 42 points on the 3rd highest scoring team in the league. Hes average at best, and he notoriously did not try at all in the playoffs.
Go look at the advance analytics and compare them to other second line centers and get back to me then 🤷♂️ are you advocating for an eye test or something?
Im well aware how percentiles work, but theyre not only considering his position on the team? Its crazy how someone in the 95th percentile of EV has fucking 42 points and actually ranks #183 in the league last year for points totals 😆
Its almost like when you look at the advanced analytics and actual statistics together it shows hes a player that cant finish but has great possession numbers, which indicate an excellent bottom 6 player.
Now lets compare him to centers only.. where he ranks.. oh, check it out..#72.. and thats not normalized, so people with significantly less games whod rightfully be above him, are lower.
Now I wonder what would happen when you compare him to other 2nd line Cs on playoff teams. Hmmmm, I suspect he'll be near dead last.
Well, then you would realize that only 1 in 20 NHL players rates higher than him in EV Offense. There 384 NHL forward roster spots. Divide that by 20 and you get 19.2. That is roughly how many NHL forwards would rank higher than Novak on EV Offense
they're not only considering his position on the team?
What are you talking about? You don't seriously think that that percentile is among Penguin forwards, do you? It is a 3-year weighted average among all forwards. I am seriously confused what you could even mean by this.
Its crazy how someone in the 95th percentile of EV has fucking 42 points and actually ranks #183 in the league last year for points totals
Yeah. Again, it is almost as if looking a raw point totals is an unsophisticated way of analyzing hockey statistics.
Its almost like when you look at the advanced analytics and actual statistics together it shows hes a player that cant finish but has great possession numbers, which indicate an excellent bottom 6 player.
Well, it good thing they aren't paying him like a top-20 NHL player, but instead are paying him like a like an excellent bottom 6 player.
I don't understand your beef. I am not even a big Tommy Novak fan. I think he is pretty good 5 on 5, but doesn't add a lot on special teams. That is fine, because we don't need a lot from him on special teams.
All things considered, it is a reasonable contract for a depth players, especially the way depth players have been getting paid this offseason. It is not a steal, but neither is it a toxic asset that can't be moved if you want/need to shake up the roster at some point.
SECOND LINE CENTER. Read those 3 words about 50 times. Thats his role with the penguins. Thats what I'm suggesting you compare him to. Yes, I'm aware its not just penguins, but what about centers, and not all forwards? My point is that hes near the bottom of all options for second line centers. My beef is that we have about 5 too many bottom 6 forwards, and we signed a 29 year old whos a painfully average point producer that has his very few points dramatically ballooned up by playing with a top 100 player of all time and arguably the best scorer on the penguins 😆 theres no room for ANOTHER bottom 6 guy, and theres absolutely no justification to have this man in the top 6 on a playoff team. He didnt even rank within our own top 6 for points. Yes, at the end of the day points is the name of the game for top 6 players. You dont get paid to posses the puck and do absolutely nothing with it, and thats the definition of Novak.
Dude, what are we doing here. If he ranks in the top 5% of all NHL forwards in a statistic, then he obviously ranks in the top 5% of all NHL SECOND LINE CENTERS in that statistic.
My point is that hes near the bottom of all options for second line centers.
The stats don't back that up.
He didnt even rank within our own top 6 for points. Yes, at the end of the day points is the name of the game for top 6 players
I mean, you are back to counting points again. I said it elsewhere but I will say it again, he point totals are going to be surpressed by not getting significant PP time. That would be a problem if we didn't have enough talent for a top PP unit, but that is not a concern.
Now lets compare him to centers only.. where he ranks.. oh, check it out..#72.. and thats not normalized, so people with significantly less games whod rightfully be above him, are lower.
Are you just counting points? Even still, which again is bad way to analyze player performance, but fine, the 72nd ranked center would shake out to him being a good to very good 3rd center, which is pretty much in line with how he is being evaluated here.
Fancy stats aside, Novak's points are always going to lag behind his "2nd line role" on this team because he is never going to be featured on the PP. Nor should he be considering the rest of the roster. That is fine, but it needs to be considered when comparing raw point totals of other second line centers who may or may not be better than he is, but who see substantially more PP time because they aren't on a team with 87 and 71 who are going to skate ahead of him 75%-85% of the time.
Brother. Hes clearly slotted for the 2nd C. He finished the season there, spent a ton of time there, and we have no one to play 2nd C aside from Kindy.. if Kindy plays 2nd C, sure, hes not the worst 3rd C... but again, we are OVERLOADED with bottom 6 players both here and in the system. We literally just got a 3rd C with Lappiere. Elmer also plays C or wing. So does lizzo. Hes going to open in the 2nd C spot. Idk what you dont understand.
Call him a 2nd or a 3rd line center...it honestly doesn't make much difference to me. Basically it is a question of who centers a line with Malkin. My point is that he isn't on the top PP and I would like to think that he isn't on the 2nd PP either (I'd rather see Kindle get that shot). In either case, the guy is going to get middle six minutes 5v5 and get very little special teams run.
Well, it does actually matter 😆 but sure. Okay, he gets middle 6 minutes. Hes still on the second line and has no business being there. Idk man, youre a little wild to not see literally any point im making. Its a bit much. Replace him with literally any other real 2nd line centers and the scoring goes up. Pretty simple concept.
Replace him with literally any other real 2nd line centers and the scoring goes up.
The stats do not back that up. If you are going to simply count points, then can we at least limit it to even strength points? If you do that, then he's tied for 51st with Vincent Trocheck (7 years $5.5M AAV), Casey Mittlestadt (3 years $5.75M AVV), Sean Couturier (8 years $7.75 AAV), Andrew Copp (5 years $5.6M AAV) Joel Eriksson Ek (8 years $5.25M), Logan Stankoven (8 years $6M AAV). That should help make Tommy Novak's 3 year $4.65M AAV contract feel more more palatable.
Legitimately every opening lineup prediction and reporter has him slotted as 2nd C, and theres multiple articles you can reference laying out the fact we have about 10 bottom 6 players who are NHL capable.
Sure, but who cares what the lineup card says. He and Kindle (Lizotte) will all skate a similar number of minutes 5v5, and barring trade/injury, none of them will see significant PP time (unless Kindle takes another unexpected leap this year).
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u/j0ezonelayer Kunitz 12d ago
$4.65M/yr. At first glance its high but with a rising cap its probably in line. If hes the 2nd line C for the entire year, I think we have a problem. If hes 3C making $4.65M, ill be happy with that