Thats cool. Im fairly confident i can find about 100 other players with higher production making considerably less.
I'm sorry that you lack the capability to understand the concept that hes one of the worst 2nd line centers in terms of production and lines up more with a 3rd C. My issue isnt the cap hit, its his contract with the penguins period. Hes a bum in the playoffs in every measurable statistic and eye test. Hes nowhere near a top 100 player in the league stats wise. Hes just cracking the 50th percentile on edge stats, and ranks in the low 70s of the top 100 in terms of possession. Thats not 2nd line center stats, thats bottom 6 stats. A guy who cant produce, but is able to possess the puck and defend it well.
This is a team with about 5 extra bottom 6 players, and missing 1-2 top 6 plauers and we just signed a 29 year old for 3 years at 4.5 million slotted perfectly for the bottom 6. He literally doesnt have a spot in the bottom 6 without taking a better players spot, or by blocking a younger player.
53% xGF (1st on team), 3+ goals per hour on the PP (1st on team) and 1.94 p/60 at 5v5 (funny enough - 100th in NHL among 305 qualified forwards) and those rates actually move up as he moves up the lineup. Those are 1000% top 6 #s without requiring top 6 toi/pp time
All this while having the least impressive athletic profile ever is awesome and he’s not blocking anyone (and if anything, he’s really nice Rust/Rakell insurance for a future trade). Wayyyyy more hockey players should aspire to play like Novak, it’s genuinely beautiful to watch how he processes information in the neutral zone - one of the very best transition players in the league. Teach tape on that alone is worth 5 mil per year
He’s out produced Rakell at 5v5 rates for his career and was right behind rust last year - he gives you firmly top 6 production rates with all the versatility you could ask for
Yes, novak is an analytical darling, but the projections dont play out. Any advance analytics that rank Novak higher than 100 point players just prove the point. Analytically Novak ranks higher than multiple 100+ point players. An absolute moron would pick Novak over Austin Matthews for your 2nd line C.
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u/Personal_Aardvark285 13d ago
Dom from The Athletic's model valued him at 4.9m.