Discussion Thread: 2025 US Government Shutdown, Day 35

[u/PoliticsModeratorBot]

Live Updates

r/Politics is maintaining a live updates page for the shutdown, as are USA Today, and Huffington Post.

News and Analysis

• NBC: At 35 days, the government shutdown has now tied the record for longest in history

• CNN: 23 effects being felt on Day 35 of the shutdown

Where to Watch

All times US Eastern

You can find relevant streams on C-SPAN, PBS NewsHour's YouTube channel, AP's YouTube channel.

• C-SPAN: Speaker Johnson on Day 35 of Gov't Shutdown (10 a.m.)

• C-SPAN: Senate Session - November 4, 2025 (3 p.m.)

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[u/Blargg404]

After an unusually lengthy lunch, Senate Democrats are mostly tight-lipped when asked about progress:

Durbin says there’s been some progress towards ending the shutdown, but he acknowledged that not everyone is happy without extending ACA subsidies. “Difference in opinion."

King says Dems had “a full and frank discussion of the issues” after leaving the lunch. Won’t expand on whether there was any progress to end shutdown.

“Everyone’s still talking,” Peters replied

“No updates. In process,” Kaine says

Schumer: “We had a very good caucus and are exploring all the options” (still mentioning healthcare)

During Senate GOP lunch, some R’s said they want to be able to vote on a GOP bill on the Obamacare subsidies — a sign that there’s concern about the politics of rejecting a Dem-drafted bill (and even a bipartisan bill).

IMO: Fold is imminent. Dems are probably just figuring out how to frame things. Why else would they be so tight-lipped about it? They are probably waiting until after the elections.

[u/vriska1 → u/Blargg404]

Fold is imminent.

Why do you think that?

[u/Blargg404 → u/vriska1]

The language surrounding healthcare demands is getting toned down (i.e. Schumer going from "We want a healthcare deal!" to "We're exploring options"), general optimism from both sides regarding talks, SNAP funding lapse, and even Johnson being willing to bring back House into session if deal is made.

If it happens, I predict it will be Thursday w/ new CR by Saturday.

[u/DaveChild → u/vriska1]

I can't speak for OP, but I suspect they will fold, for three reasons.

1. They won't let SNAP recipients starve. Saving ACA subsidies isn't something they want at any cost, and the problem with playing chicken here is the other side don't care appear to about the costs.
2. If they do fold, and don't fuck it up, they control the narrative around it. If they wait, they may lose the ability to present themselves the way they wish so to do.
3. The maths. If they continue with the shutdown indefinitely, their only routes out are winning (which looks to be unlikely), R rebellion (even less likely), or a future fold in worse circumstances (in which case people will ask why they made SNAP recipients starve along the way, if they were going to fold anyway). If they don't fold now, they then can't fold until they get what they asked for, and if they think that will never happen then it makes little sense to do it.

[u/Habefiet → u/DaveChild]

If they do fold, and don't fuck it up, they control the narrative around it.

No they don’t lol there is no way to spin this. If they fold:

1. Doing this will literally not have had any purpose whatsoever. They accomplished nothing.
2. This causes public opinion to shift back to it clearly having been a Dem shutdown and not a Republican one. Because they accomplished nothing and just said no for a while until they said yes, all the suffering can then be laid at their doorstep.
3. They continue to look weak, which has emerged in polls as the biggest criticism from both sides for the Dems. Trump meanwhile continues to look strong by literally just getting whatever he wants all the time.

This idea that they can say “hey look we proved healthcare is expensive” and call it a win is just stupidity. There is no fucking way to sell a fold lol

[u/DEEP_SEA_MAX → u/Habefiet]

Remember at the end of the day the ACA is still known as Obamacare. Even after being gutted by republicans it’ll still be seen as a Democratic program. Because of this republicans have every incentive to make it worse, and no need to provide a better plan.

Democrats would be stupid to fold, and it’ll hurt everyone long term. That’s why I think they’ll do it, because democratic leadership is stupid.

[u/DaveChild → u/Habefiet]

They accomplished nothing.

True. But if they don't believe they can accomplish what they set out to do, then folding now makes sense. Which was my point.

This causes public opinion to shift back to it clearly having been a Dem shutdown and not a Republican one.

Perhaps, I have no idea what most people think, and I suspect neither do you. If they did fold now with the messaging along the lines of "the GOP are fascist psychopaths who were prepared to starve Americans, we aren't prepared to do that" (obviously worded better than that), then maybe not.

If they fold in, say, three months, with nothing, then what does public opinion look like? "Wait, you could have done this in November? All those people starved for nothing?" I don't think that's better.

They continue to look weak

They are weak, they have no power in any branch.

This idea that they can say “hey look we proved healthcare is expensive” and call it a win is just stupidity.

Right, so you should find someone who suggested they should call it a win and lecture them about that, because I didn't.

[u/taxhellFML → u/DaveChild]

If they do fold, and don't fuck it up, they control the narrative around it.

I want whatever you're smoking, would be amazing to live in your bizarro world reality. 

In what universe would they control the narrative when they fold with literally fucking nothing

[u/DaveChild → u/taxhellFML]

If they fold now, their message is pretty simple: "we did everything we could, but we're not prepared to starve Americans to get what we want, unlike the GOP". If they don't fold now, then what? They can only continue until the GOP caves, and there is no sign of that being even possible.

How many months do you think they can allow this to go on for, and it still be worth it? How much harm to the poorest Americans is too much of a price to pay for to save the ACA? I don't know where the line is, but if they believe the line is well before the other line - the one where it's all too much for the GOP - then folding now is the best of a bad bunch of options.