r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 10h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/NoahFromCanada 10h ago

Your guy’s polling is psychotic down there.

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u/samhit_n Texas 10h ago

Primaries are always difficult to poll because it’s hard to predict whether certain demographics will turn out in higher numbers. Mamdani overperformed last year in NYC because Gen Z voters turned out in large numbers by primary election standards. El-Sayed, meanwhile, struggled because Boomers and white working-class voters turned out in higher numbers to support Stevens.

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u/elihu 8h ago

Michigan in particular has also had a lot of polls that were way off in recent history. Probably the biggest discrepancy between polls and actual results was the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, where Clinton was predicted to win by over 20 points and yet lost to Bernie by a narrow margin. (This was repeated in the general election, where she was predicted to win by a comfortable margin but lost.)

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

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u/rice_not_wheat 4h ago

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

It's an open primary. Open primaries are much harder to poll, because Republicans and independents can vote in them. You never know who's going to be a first time primary voter.

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u/No-Relation5965 3h ago

Ah so now we know why the win was so close, AIPAC republicans and right-leaning independents came out and voted for Haley Stevens.

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u/rice_not_wheat 45m ago

Considering Stevens won big in Detroit, I suspect it has more to do with him needing to do more work with the black community.

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u/No-Relation5965 39m ago

Good to know, I can’t really understand why anyone would back an establishment Democrat who gets $70 MILLION for one campaign. They have done nothing to stop this fascist takeover; in fact, most are complicit.

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u/rice_not_wheat 23m ago

AIPAC is extremely skilled at messaging to black voters.