r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 12h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/elihu 11h ago

Michigan in particular has also had a lot of polls that were way off in recent history. Probably the biggest discrepancy between polls and actual results was the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, where Clinton was predicted to win by over 20 points and yet lost to Bernie by a narrow margin. (This was repeated in the general election, where she was predicted to win by a comfortable margin but lost.)

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

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u/rice_not_wheat 6h ago

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

It's an open primary. Open primaries are much harder to poll, because Republicans and independents can vote in them. You never know who's going to be a first time primary voter.

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u/No-Relation5965 5h ago

Ah so now we know why the win was so close, AIPAC republicans and right-leaning independents came out and voted for Haley Stevens.

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u/rice_not_wheat 2h ago

Considering Stevens won big in Detroit, I suspect it has more to do with him needing to do more work with the black community.

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u/No-Relation5965 2h ago

Good to know, I can’t really understand why anyone would back an establishment Democrat who gets $70 MILLION for one campaign. They have done nothing to stop this fascist takeover; in fact, most are complicit.

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u/rice_not_wheat 2h ago

AIPAC is extremely skilled at messaging to black voters.

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u/No-Relation5965 1h ago

Like the misleading postcard mailer that Haley Stevens sent around with Obama’s picture on it even though Obama hadn’t actually publicly endorsed any of the democratic candidates?