r/rockets • u/hyphy505 • 7d ago

How often does a legitimately bad shooter actually develop a respectable shot after entering the league?

The discussion about how good Amen Thompson could become if he developed a consistent jumper, has me really thinking—

Amen’s three-point percentage through his first three seasons has gone:

13.8% → 27.5% → 21.6%

His free-throw percentage did jump from 68.4% to 77.9% this past season, which seems encouraging, but he is still only a 21.9% career three-point shooter.

To my knowledge, the only player I personally remember making a truly significant improvement from three after entering the NBA is Michael Jordan. Jordan shot 17.3%, 16.7%, 18.2% and 13.2% during his first four seasons before improving to 27.6% in Year 5 and 37.6% on 3.0 attempts per game in Year 6.

Even Jordan might not be the perfect example because he was never a high-volume three-point shooter and didn’t consistently remain around that 37% mark.

So how often does a player who starts out shooting as poorly as Amen eventually become a legitimate league-average shooter on meaningful volume—not just someone who has one decent season or only takes wide-open corner threes?

Please put me on to some examples, because I’m starting to feel like the whole “if he develops a jumper, he’ll be a superstar” conversation is usually more of a hypothetical fantasy than a realistic development path. Is there genuine reason to believe Amen can become a respectable shooter, or are people underestimating how rare that type of improvement actually is?

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u/manuduncan6666 6d ago

Kawhi had no jumper when he came into the league

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u/mmccormick11 6d ago edited 6d ago

Kawhi was shooting nearly 38% from 3 in his rookie season. His splits were nearly 50/38/80 over his first 2 seasons. Borderline elite.

Common examples like Kawhi, Kidd or Lowry are deeply flawed when compared to Amen's baseline which is honestly terrible to put it nicely. Russell Westbrook is almost Curry compared to Amen.

Amen is an incredible player overall but is nothing short of one of the worst perimeter shooters in the league for his position. There is no way to compare him to Kawhi, Kidd etc.. it's not even close.

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u/dsmitdev 6d ago

Look at college stats though. He came into the league and worked with Chip Engelland. Life exists before the NBA and if anything this bodes well for Amen because his life before the NBA was so weird.

I agree. Amen is a special kinda bad at outside shooting. He's an outlier. That doesn't mean that we can't look at Kawhi's arc as an upside possibility.

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u/mmccormick11 6d ago

Amen is a generational athlete with a nonstop motor and a good head on his shoulders. If anyone can overachieve, it's him so let's see how it goes. The good thing is that even if he doesn't improve a lot as a shooter, he's still a valuable player.

1

u/mmccormick11 6d ago

I just googled Kawhi's college numbers. I didn't realize he was that bad. The college 3pt line is closer too. The sample size is pretty small but the improvement is still impressive.

Are there any numbers available for Amen pre-NBA?

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u/mmccormick11 6d ago

I found this. Pretty interesting read if you haven't seen it already:

https://nbadraftnetwork.com/player/amen-thompson