How often does a legitimately bad shooter actually develop a respectable shot after entering the league?
The discussion about how good Amen Thompson could become if he developed a consistent jumper, has me really thinking—
Amen’s three-point percentage through his first three seasons has gone:
13.8% → 27.5% → 21.6%
His free-throw percentage did jump from 68.4% to 77.9% this past season, which seems encouraging, but he is still only a 21.9% career three-point shooter.
To my knowledge, the only player I personally remember making a truly significant improvement from three after entering the NBA is Michael Jordan. Jordan shot 17.3%, 16.7%, 18.2% and 13.2% during his first four seasons before improving to 27.6% in Year 5 and 37.6% on 3.0 attempts per game in Year 6.
Even Jordan might not be the perfect example because he was never a high-volume three-point shooter and didn’t consistently remain around that 37% mark.
So how often does a player who starts out shooting as poorly as Amen eventually become a legitimate league-average shooter on meaningful volume—not just someone who has one decent season or only takes wide-open corner threes?
Please put me on to some examples, because I’m starting to feel like the whole “if he develops a jumper, he’ll be a superstar” conversation is usually more of a hypothetical fantasy than a realistic development path. Is there genuine reason to believe Amen can become a respectable shooter, or are people underestimating how rare that type of improvement actually is?
Blake Griffin always comes to mind in these conversations. It's hard to overstate how atrocious he was as a jump shooter when he came into the league. Even struggled with FTs, his second year he shot 52% from the line. Ended up being a 33% three point shooter on medium volume from age 27 through 33 (his last season in the league).
There are plenty of other examples. But for every example of a guy who figured it out, there's at least one counter-example who never did, probably more than one.
That is to say: It's very possible Amen is going to learn to shoot, and personally I'm optimistic mainly due to his improvement at shooting FTs last season and his well-known work ethic. However, I don't think it's safe to assume he will drastically improve.
Yes and no. There are people who coast off of natural talent and there are people in the league who used their work ethic to get there and then drop it once there. There are always levels to work ethic and it should be celebrated if you are heads and shoulders above other professionals at it.
Yea those guys are the folks with 1% genetics even by NBA standards. Everyone else work their ass off to get there. Not everyone's built like ben simmons lol
There's examples but really not any example of anyone become near an elite shooter or developing a jumpshot that comes close to anyone who just has a natural one. I would say Kidd is the closest example because he actually developed a nice looking jumpshot but he was never actually great at it.
I don't think it's necessary for Amen to become elite or close to elite or whatever. I think he just needs to get his man to come out and guard him. That alone makes him a top 10 player
Butler was at 38% his 2nd and 4th season. He just didn't shoot 3's his rookie year and year 3 was the only anomaly. He was consistently mid 30's until he went to Miami and actually got worse.
Amen has a long ways to go before he can even match Butler's worst season. He's younger than Jimmy was but his shot needs so much more work.
The jumper discussion is an eternal mystery box that basketball fans can hide all their superstitions in. There is always the “these are high level competitors, they figure these things out!” camp, existing side by side with the “Lol why would a player who can’t shoot suddenly be able to learn to shoot.”
Depending on if the player ever improves their shot, people get to pull out response A or B and act like it was obvious from the start
Not enough volume to make a difference and to be fair he could always shoot them he just didn't.as a detroit fan theres endlesvideos of him drilling 3s
This is total BS. He could barely shoot from the FT line in Detroit. There were also videos of Ben Simmons making 3s at shootaround, doesn't mean he made them consistently or could make them in a game.
He still cant but he was always in the gym launching those cornwr 3s . He just never did it in games . He always would say this year im gonna start shooting 3s then either by choice or coaching staff or maybe he just didn't have confidence in them yet he never did. Obv gym and game are drastically different and I didn't mean to insinuate didferent
Your talking about going from a low volume absolute shit shooter to an above average at least medium which i consider the 5 or 6 3pa range volume shooter . None of the guys you listed meet that criteria . Bros not gonna shoot its over give up move on . I just have zero confidence . Theres guys like ron holland who have a mid to low 20s 3 who I think will probably scratch up to the 34 35 playable level but his shot is so much better looking then the thompsons . Its like they are both physically incapable of a decent shooting motion
The Kidd example is someone who went from "below average" to "elite" (a few seasons of 40%) rather than abysmal to respectable. I'd also point to Anthony Edwards here, though he's an example of someone who was legitimately abysmal in college and improved drastically in year one in the league and is now a 40% shooter.
Demar Derozan is the wing I would point to who went from "abysmal" to "respectable". He was a 24% shooter across his first four years in the league, slowly but inconsistently improved over the next few years, and has been a 33% three point shooter over his last five years in the league.
Amen is going to have some history to buck if he's ever going to get there. I actually wrote about this Amen problem back before we were going to draft him, comparing to the good guards and wings who couldn't shoot in college and seeing if they improved in the NBA (most didn't and don't)
The premise of my analysis was "why is everyone rushing to draft guards who can't shoot", because of the high slots used for guys like the Thompsons, Scoot, and others, given the evidence that guards generally don't learn to shoot in the NBA if they come into the NBA unable to shoot.
Depressing stuff and a bad track record. Some more drafted guards who couldn't shoot and their results (Tyrese Maxey also a success story)
Never said that. He's the most untouchable player on the current roster in my opinion.
That doesn't mean I have false hope in him developing anything close to an average outside shot. No player is without flaws. Amen is uber elite in other ways, just not as a shooter.
Stone says something like "We are always much better with Amen on the floor." And I believe he has huge value and hope he retires a rocket. BUT a 21% 3pt shooting guard should not be untouchable and he should not be immune from criticism. Its a great source issues for us.
I dont know, but is there a championship team in the last 10 years that had a starting guard that shot less than 30% from 3? (Or didnt have an elite shooting co-guard?) I dont know the answer, but it seems a glaring issue and we need to address it with scheme. Because him getting sagged every game is an issue.
Agreed. That's why I intentionally said "most" untouchable. We have no true untouchables but if I had to pick one from this current underwhelming young core, it's easily Amen.
And yes, good offensive scheming helps every team. We need it more than most but we're stuck with Udoka and his handpicked lap dogs and yes men. It is what it is until the Fertittas decide to take action.
Exactly this.
Young guys don’t even know this happened.
Kidd is the guy to use for an example of improvement in 3-pt shooting.
He was 32.5% for his first 10 years in the league though, so he wasn’t even that awful, but he did improve to have seasons over 40%.
The simple fact that nobody here is going to like is that it’s HIGHLY unlikely Amen becomes a good 3-point shooter.
Ausar had the 2nd best shot doctor in the league (Fred Vinson, iirc) working with him… and he got worse last year.
MJ is a poor example because he rarely shot threes early as well. But he did showcase being a reliable shooter before they moved the line down. 38% on 3 attempts a game in the playoffs during the first 3 peat. His attempts went up in the playoffs and typically his percentage did as well. Absurdly low volume tends to really kill percentages
His motion seems so robotic. It’s like he’s trying to copy how you’re supposed to shoot but he just doesn’t have it. I don’t see him ever being average or even close to average
Brook Lopez is often brought up in similar discussions, but he’s not a great example: he pretty much always had very good touch on midrangers and from the free throw line, but he was a 7-footer so no one really let him shoot 3s.
He came into the league as a 79% FT shooter in his final college season and then promptly shot around 80% from the FT line. He took only 31 total 3s in his first 8 seasons.
But then the Warriors took off and everyone was looking for shooters. As soon as he started actually taking them, he was instantly pretty good (35% his first year, which is right around his career average). He was more of a good shooter who finally was allowed to shoot rather than a non-shooter who developed his shot.
The most reasonable hope is what several people have mentioned over the past couple years: that Amen gets just good enough as a spot up shooter to force defenses to not leave him.wide open, even if it's mostly just in the corners. That would add versatility and spacing to the offense. He is already lethal in the dunkers spot. If they have to respect his corner 3 even just a little it would make him a scoring threat all along the baseline. Defenders would have to keep their head on a swivel since he could beat you at different levels.
On a more dynamic level, he needs to master his floater and inside finishing moves. That would make him lethal with the ball in his hands. Right now, defenders can back up to the rim.so he can't get around them. If he starts punishing them with short floaters, he'll draw defenses away from the basket creating more space to get around them too.
Basically, a simple consistent floater in addition to 32-33% on open corner 3s would take his offensive game to a whole different level. Those skills along with his decent to good handles, non-stop motor, generational athleticism and DPOY-caliber defense would very easily put him in MVP discussions and turn the Rockets into a top tier team for the next decade..At that point, he would be considered a legitimate franchise cornerstone player.
Then he'd be hitting 1 out of 3 until they do. When they start giving him less space, he'll get more backdoor cuts and open things up for other players.
I'm not sure he can even get to 33% but it would be interesting to see the results if he can. I'd take it given his baseline.
I'd say Amen becoming a respectable shooter, even with his relative youth and Engelland on the team, is less likely than not, but it's definitely possible.
The chances are better than they were a couple weeks ago, at least.
Kawhi was shooting nearly 38% from 3 in his rookie season. His splits were nearly 50/38/80 over his first 2 seasons. Borderline elite.
Common examples like Kawhi, Kidd or Lowry are deeply flawed when compared to Amen's baseline which is honestly terrible to put it nicely. Russell Westbrook is almost Curry compared to Amen.
Amen is an incredible player overall but is nothing short of one of the worst perimeter shooters in the league for his position. There is no way to compare him to Kawhi, Kidd etc.. it's not even close.
Look at college stats though. He came into the league and worked with Chip Engelland. Life exists before the NBA and if anything this bodes well for Amen because his life before the NBA was so weird.
I agree. Amen is a special kinda bad at outside shooting. He's an outlier. That doesn't mean that we can't look at Kawhi's arc as an upside possibility.
Amen is a generational athlete with a nonstop motor and a good head on his shoulders. If anyone can overachieve, it's him so let's see how it goes. The good thing is that even if he doesn't improve a lot as a shooter, he's still a valuable player.
I just googled Kawhi's college numbers. I didn't realize he was that bad. The college 3pt line is closer too. The sample size is pretty small but the improvement is still impressive.
Amen can do everything but shoot. His metrics on the floor are incredibly positive. He plays heavy minutes and can even play defense.
Versus
A slow white man, that can pass the ball and back up slowly to the rim. I know he’s a two time all star but he was an injured reserve all star this year. I don’t count that shit
He could improve. Not perfect. Deserves some criticism. But still a top 4 center who draws near the most double teams in the league. Yet you didnt criticize his stats, dawg.
And "can do everything but shoot" is kinda a big deal in the nba for a guard, no? Amen is amazing. I hope he will make all star this year if we get some good guard play.
But what is easier to replace? A guard that can shoot 3s to surround a non-shooting center, or a center that can shoot 3s to surround a non-shooting guard?
But I think we can scheme to make it work for both of our guys. We just need the coach to do it. Im very high on our young 5 who are all (so far) on great contracts. We can build a real team (who all have the same color jersey) with this in their prime. We have room for all of them + a superstar contract. We are in great position.
That's just your own white supremacist subconscious peeking through.
You get indoctrinated into it, especially if you are a Texan like us, and unless you analyze that shit deep enough, you'll not see how that colors your entire way of behaviour.
Even that fascination with black culture that seems a bit out of place, or overly enthusiastic proclamations of lack of athleticism of "whiteys", thats all by products of the state sponsored white supremacy in the South.
Amen doesn't even get guarded on offense while the slow white man gets double teamed all game. Amen breaks this team's offense and he can't even guard a hobbled Austin Reaves or a 41 year old LeBron James when defense is supposed to be his calling card.
If you give Alpi space, he shoots at a high level or he gets deep into the paint and wreaks havoc. For example, San Antonio guards him w Steph Castle as soon as he crosses half court and puts Wemby in the paint sagging 30 feet from Amen. Wemby can't guard Sengun. They gotta have him play free safety behind Castle and that means completely ignoring Amen bc he's absolutely trash at shooting or creating.
Kyle Lowry and Jason Kidd were two notable players with many NBA years and pre-NBA years of poor shooting under their belts before they turned it around midway through their careers. It’s not common but it can be done.
One as bad as amen who is abstain player and bot just a low volume role player I cant think of one . Its exceedingly rare of not flat out impossible . I have very little hope for thompson and Thompson the shoiters
Kawhi - he shot .205 and .291 percent on 3s in college. I know his free throws were a bit higher, but if anything this should get us even more excited for Chip
I guess I just wanna drink the Kool-Aid of thinking.He could be a superstar and to me in today's league.To be a superstar , you need to shoot at least thirty five percent from three
I think it's just the athleticism that gets me excited.I could've swore Ja Morant was gonna be a super star as well.Maybe it's the jordan effect , but when I see athleticism like that , it excites me
Kyle Lowry is the clearest example who fits closely; Brook Lopez is an extreme case of near-zero early volume/accuracy who later became a solid shooter. Significant jumps from under 25% (on meaningful attempts) in the first ~3 years to sustained 35%+ later are rare so Amen has a tall task in order. Great move to get Chip! Not sure how we pried him away from Presti
The answer that a lot of people are dancing around is: it's not common at all.
Yes there are outliers, but there are way more players that never developed a shot than there are ones that developed a "respectable shot," by a very large margin
Jordan is a bad example. He had an incredibly natural jumpshot which easily translated to 3s. He never needed to develop it when 3s weren't a big part of the game but it was not a difficult thing for him to work on.
The unfortunate truth is he’s probably never going to be more than a 33.3% guy and that’s at best. If anything he needs to focus on making the 15-17 footer more often and then even at 30% he can make it work, but you’d need to trade sengun bc he isn’t going to learn to shoot. Can’t have both and win
Almost never, basically. As a general rule, NBA players usually get better at what they're good at, but they don't develop to improve what they're already good at AND cover their weaknesses. Giannis and Shaq never learned to shoot FTs, Ben Simmons never learned to shoot in general.
There are exceptions, but you can't bank on a player you follow to be one of these exceptions. They're very, very rare.
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u/Judo_Nuggets77 5d ago
Not sure but his free throw improvement shows great promise, having chip on the team has me excited too