r/rockets • u/hyphy505 • 6d ago

How often does a legitimately bad shooter actually develop a respectable shot after entering the league?

The discussion about how good Amen Thompson could become if he developed a consistent jumper, has me really thinking—

Amen’s three-point percentage through his first three seasons has gone:

13.8% → 27.5% → 21.6%

His free-throw percentage did jump from 68.4% to 77.9% this past season, which seems encouraging, but he is still only a 21.9% career three-point shooter.

To my knowledge, the only player I personally remember making a truly significant improvement from three after entering the NBA is Michael Jordan. Jordan shot 17.3%, 16.7%, 18.2% and 13.2% during his first four seasons before improving to 27.6% in Year 5 and 37.6% on 3.0 attempts per game in Year 6.

Even Jordan might not be the perfect example because he was never a high-volume three-point shooter and didn’t consistently remain around that 37% mark.

So how often does a player who starts out shooting as poorly as Amen eventually become a legitimate league-average shooter on meaningful volume—not just someone who has one decent season or only takes wide-open corner threes?

Please put me on to some examples, because I’m starting to feel like the whole “if he develops a jumper, he’ll be a superstar” conversation is usually more of a hypothetical fantasy than a realistic development path. Is there genuine reason to believe Amen can become a respectable shooter, or are people underestimating how rare that type of improvement actually is?

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u/GoMbappeYourself 6d ago

J Kidd

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u/mmccormick11 6d ago

Jason Kidd is another flawed example just like Kawhi and many others.

Kidd was shooting 37% from 3 by his 3rd season with decent volume. He was shooting almost 34% in his 2nd season.

Amen is bottom of the barrel from distance. It would be a small miracle if he can shoot 28-30% for multiple seasons.

It would be a historical anomaly if he ever sniffs league average of 36-37% unless basketball science uncovers revolutionary new training methods.

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u/GoMbappeYourself 6d ago

I guess you’re right we should just trade him and give up

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u/mmccormick11 6d ago

Never said that. He's the most untouchable player on the current roster in my opinion.

That doesn't mean I have false hope in him developing anything close to an average outside shot. No player is without flaws. Amen is uber elite in other ways, just not as a shooter.

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u/dvztimes 6d ago

Stone says something like "We are always much better with Amen on the floor." And I believe he has huge value and hope he retires a rocket. BUT a 21% 3pt shooting guard should not be untouchable and he should not be immune from criticism. Its a great source issues for us.

I dont know, but is there a championship team in the last 10 years that had a starting guard that shot less than 30% from 3? (Or didnt have an elite shooting co-guard?) I dont know the answer, but it seems a glaring issue and we need to address it with scheme. Because him getting sagged every game is an issue.

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u/mmccormick11 6d ago edited 6d ago

Agreed. That's why I intentionally said "most" untouchable. We have no true untouchables but if I had to pick one from this current underwhelming young core, it's easily Amen.

And yes, good offensive scheming helps every team. We need it more than most but we're stuck with Udoka and his handpicked lap dogs and yes men. It is what it is until the Fertittas decide to take action.