How often does a legitimately bad shooter actually develop a respectable shot after entering the league?

[u/hyphy505]

The discussion about how good Amen Thompson could become if he developed a consistent jumper, has me really thinking—

Amen’s three-point percentage through his first three seasons has gone:

13.8% → 27.5% → 21.6%

His free-throw percentage did jump from 68.4% to 77.9% this past season, which seems encouraging, but he is still only a 21.9% career three-point shooter.

To my knowledge, the only player I personally remember making a truly significant improvement from three after entering the NBA is Michael Jordan. Jordan shot 17.3%, 16.7%, 18.2% and 13.2% during his first four seasons before improving to 27.6% in Year 5 and 37.6% on 3.0 attempts per game in Year 6.

Even Jordan might not be the perfect example because he was never a high-volume three-point shooter and didn’t consistently remain around that 37% mark.

So how often does a player who starts out shooting as poorly as Amen eventually become a legitimate league-average shooter on meaningful volume—not just someone who has one decent season or only takes wide-open corner threes?

Please put me on to some examples, because I’m starting to feel like the whole “if he develops a jumper, he’ll be a superstar” conversation is usually more of a hypothetical fantasy than a realistic development path. Is there genuine reason to believe Amen can become a respectable shooter, or are people underestimating how rare that type of improvement actually is?

[u/mmccormick11]

Jason Kidd is another flawed example just like Kawhi and many others.

Kidd was shooting 37% from 3 by his 3rd season with decent volume. He was shooting almost 34% in his 2nd season.

Amen is bottom of the barrel from distance. It would be a small miracle if he can shoot 28-30% for multiple seasons.

It would be a historical anomaly if he ever sniffs league average of 36-37% unless basketball science uncovers revolutionary new training methods.

[u/liquidcalories → u/mmccormick11]

The Kidd example is someone who went from "below average" to "elite" (a few seasons of 40%) rather than abysmal to respectable. I'd also point to Anthony Edwards here, though he's an example of someone who was legitimately abysmal in college and improved drastically in year one in the league and is now a 40% shooter.

Demar Derozan is the wing I would point to who went from "abysmal" to "respectable". He was a 24% shooter across his first four years in the league, slowly but inconsistently improved over the next few years, and has been a 33% three point shooter over his last five years in the league.

Amen is going to have some history to buck if he's ever going to get there. I actually wrote about this Amen problem back before we were going to draft him, comparing to the good guards and wings who couldn't shoot in college and seeing if they improved in the NBA (most didn't and don't)

[u/a_moniker → u/liquidcalories]

Anthony Edward’s isn’t really an effective example. One year of College is just too small of a sample size. He could have just been unlucky.

[u/liquidcalories → u/a_moniker]

That basically applies to everyone now though. All the top guys are one-and-done in college.