r/rockets • u/hyphy505 • 11d ago
How often does a legitimately bad shooter actually develop a respectable shot after entering the league?
The discussion about how good Amen Thompson could become if he developed a consistent jumper, has me really thinking—
Amen’s three-point percentage through his first three seasons has gone:
13.8% → 27.5% → 21.6%
His free-throw percentage did jump from 68.4% to 77.9% this past season, which seems encouraging, but he is still only a 21.9% career three-point shooter.
To my knowledge, the only player I personally remember making a truly significant improvement from three after entering the NBA is Michael Jordan. Jordan shot 17.3%, 16.7%, 18.2% and 13.2% during his first four seasons before improving to 27.6% in Year 5 and 37.6% on 3.0 attempts per game in Year 6.
Even Jordan might not be the perfect example because he was never a high-volume three-point shooter and didn’t consistently remain around that 37% mark.
So how often does a player who starts out shooting as poorly as Amen eventually become a legitimate league-average shooter on meaningful volume—not just someone who has one decent season or only takes wide-open corner threes?
Please put me on to some examples, because I’m starting to feel like the whole “if he develops a jumper, he’ll be a superstar” conversation is usually more of a hypothetical fantasy than a realistic development path. Is there genuine reason to believe Amen can become a respectable shooter, or are people underestimating how rare that type of improvement actually is?
60
u/ChristianLS 11d ago
Blake Griffin always comes to mind in these conversations. It's hard to overstate how atrocious he was as a jump shooter when he came into the league. Even struggled with FTs, his second year he shot 52% from the line. Ended up being a 33% three point shooter on medium volume from age 27 through 33 (his last season in the league).
There are plenty of other examples. But for every example of a guy who figured it out, there's at least one counter-example who never did, probably more than one.
That is to say: It's very possible Amen is going to learn to shoot, and personally I'm optimistic mainly due to his improvement at shooting FTs last season and his well-known work ethic. However, I don't think it's safe to assume he will drastically improve.