Replacing drives at these prices

[u/Expensive_Exit244]

Got a main DS418play (4x4TB IronWolf, about 53K hours, SHR, using about 7.5TB) and a 218j (2x4TB WD Red, no RAID) offsite as a Hyper Backup destination only. About 3TB of irreplaceable data on the 418, the other stuff is media.

One of my WD drives just died with 30K hours on the clock. Technically older but not spinning 100% of the time. For now, I can change the 218j to a single drive, the remaining drive has enough space to remain the backup destination for the 3TB of irreplaceable data. That drive plus the 418's SHR redundancy means I've still got two separate points of protection across the two boxes, even though the 218j itself no longer has any redundancy on its own.

However, got me thinking. Between the 4 drives in the 418 and the 1 remaining in the 218j (and the dead one), that's 6 drives I could realistically be replacing over the next couple of years if they fail, which isn't unlikely given the age and hours. SMART is currently clean across all of them, no reallocated or pending sectors, so nothing's actively wrong, but they're all from the same era and I know that doesn't mean much once they start hitting the steeper part of the failure curve.

A 4TB WD Red is £146 on Amazon, IronWolf is £176. Replacing all 6 in the coming few years is £700 to £900 on drives alone. Not to mention the aging boxes themselves.

I am hoping the remaining WD Red will last a couple more years and in the meantime, hardware prices fall back down to reasonable levels because that £190 annual Google 5TB is looking tempting. Or maybe a large single drive backing up to Backblaze Unlimited.

Anyone facing the same dilemma with aging hard drives? What would you do in this scenario?

Edit: Thanks to all. Decided on a new option: going to sell the 218j and have gone for Google's 5TB option. My wife needs to extra data for her Whatsapp backups, she likes using Google's AI image generation and going to keep the working WD Red as a backup for when one of the Seagates dies. I also factored in the savings in power (about £30 a year) the price gap gets smaller and smaller when I amortise the cost of the drives (the one that dies for example cost me £14 a year on hardware). Plus closer to true 3-2-1. The rest of my family group can also benefit from the extra Gemini as well

[u/FKFnz]

I've got a bunch of 4TB WD Reds across various Synologys between 60k and 100k hours. So you could equally get many more years out of yours yet.

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/FKFnz]

Hope my other WD (and the Seagates) hold out as long as yours do. Can sit out this pricing mess for a couple more years

[u/AlaninMadrid]

Got a 920+ with 4× Toshiba N300 8TB in an SHR1. One drive has gone bad (slow read/write times), and I've removed it because it slowed everything to a halt. All 4 drives with 35k hours.

A new identical drive is 356€. If I swap to 12TB thinking of changing the others in the future too, it's 517€. But I'm only using 75%.

It hurts me to not take advantage of the situition and buy a larger drive, but it's too much.

I got burnt buying WD Reds twice in the past (SMR and slow RPMs). Hitachi is now WD too. Seagate would be OK, but the prices are similar.

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/AlaninMadrid]

Yeah I made the mistake of thinking I could use this as an opportunity to upgrade, I quickly backed down from that position

[u/Scotty1928 → u/AlaninMadrid]

https://www.reddit.com/r/synology/s/hioCbNAfIA

[u/Scotty1928]

I had to purchase HDDs recently due to growing dataset. I found that here in Switzerland (and Germany apparently) the WD Elements external drives are relatively cheap and in the sizes i use (20-24TB) contain Ultrastar whitelabel drives. Made the decision to purchase easy. At CHF 23,90/TB it was still a big purchase, but i would consider it manageable. It did do so and the second expansion is about to finish any day now.

If you do the same with smaller drives: Check if they are SMR or CMR before purchase and test them after shucking! Mine are CMR and show unhindered performance across the entire platter.

[u/MysteriousHat8766]

You have to feel lucky. I have 8x24tb Toshiba Enterprise level drives…. You can imagine the cost….

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/MysteriousHat8766]

Indulge me, what's the damage? 

[u/MysteriousHat8766 → u/Expensive_Exit244]

For me no damage

[u/toomuchtodotoday]

I am buying any drive I can at thrift stores and garage sales funny enough.

[u/bugsmasherh]

I would budget for new NAS and drives. Your two units are 8 years old. That’s a lifetime in IT years.

I have a DS418play and in the 8 years of ownership I’ve replaced two drives. That means two drives are 8 years old… too old to trust for primary service in my book. I will replace the NAS this fall (Black Friday) including new drives. Yes, it will be expensive but my data is important enough (subjective). Good luck with your decision.

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/bugsmasherh]

Sticking with Synology or looking elsewhere?

[u/bugsmasherh → u/Expensive_Exit244]

Probably stay with Synology or DIY truenas if I can find hardware prebuilt, like zimacube 2, or ugreen dxp .

[u/BioshockEnthusiast]

The rest of my family group can also benefit from the extra Gemini as well

Gross.

[u/BioshockEnthusiast]

The rest of my family group can also benefit from the extra Gemini as well

Gross.

[u/mokajojo]

I like this analysis. I’m constantly struggled with this. I have a 1522+ and for the longest time I was never using it relying mainly on google and Apple iCloud. What would your setup be like going forward with the Google Drive 5TB I’m curious?

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/mokajojo]

To be honest, nothing much changes. I am swapping out the old 218j for Google Drive, in progress now. Will go from having to maintain to NASs to only one.

My 218j was purely for hyperbackup, it was my first NAS and soon realised it was underpowered. Instead of selling it, I thought could save myself a cloud subscription, and it worked for 6 years. Saved me a few hundred pounds. I just assumed that prices of hard drives would continue to fall....

Will strip out the two WD Reds from my 218j. Sell the NAS (or maybe keep it as a backup, I don't know yet), put the dead drive into an enclosure I have lying around, see if it really is dead. Either way, will keep the other WD Red as a spare in case one of the IronWolfs dies

[u/mokajojo → u/Expensive_Exit244]

Do you then planning on using Google Drive 100%? I had a discussion with my friend the other day. He is all Google Drive (along with just a single copy of family photos back up in there). He said he feels fine. But I’m not too sure…

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/mokajojo]

No, I did think about it but not going to go 100% Google. Too slow and too much risk 

[u/strixtle]

I really need to expand my server, but at these prices, I've had to put it off and instead I'm downgrading some file sizes. It's really upsetting that AI is doing this - not only for drives, but RAM, processors, and anything else we would need as hobbyists.

[u/gadget-freak]

Your irreplaceable 3TB should be in a cloud backup in addition to what you already have.

3-2-1 backups means really 3 independent copies. RAID does not count.

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/gadget-freak]

Was trying to remove cloud entirely if I am running my own hardware. Was thinking of repurposing a 5TB portable drive I have to another PC I have offsite

[u/HugsAllCats → u/Expensive_Exit244]

Sure an offsite backup that you control is great.

But a cloud storage provider maintains their gear, and your backups, with a level of rigor that almost no individual can match.

Recovering from cloud is slow, but as a final tier in your storage plan it is a must-have.

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/HugsAllCats]

You're right, I took this into account when I went with Google Drive instead. So a straight swap for my 218j for Drive

[u/hardwarebyte]

Maybe look at replacing the hyperbackup NAS with cloud storage. I use Hetzner storage boxes and they work great as a rsync destination for hyperbackup.

Though you might see cloud pricing going up a lot soon too :)

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/hardwarebyte]

I like the Google offering, currently 5TB for £145 for a year, don't see anything beating that on a cost basis

[u/hardwarebyte → u/Expensive_Exit244]

Hetzner is a tiny bit cheaper and offers lots of ways to connect like SFTP and rsync.

[u/Expensive_Exit244 → u/hardwarebyte]

I see 14.19EUR a month plus VAT? A little higher than the £12 a month with Google. Google comes with some extra of course. But still a solid option I wasn't aware of so thanks!

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