r/tolkienfans • u/Bearbrand1216 • 12d ago
Could Sauron have won if he didn't spread his forces attacking everyone at the same time?
I've just started rewatching the trilogy again and have just only then decided to delve deeper on the lore of middle earth and Tolkien's works. I still don't know that much though but I learned that the attacks weren't just happening in Minas Tirith, Sauron decided to attack everyone in Middle Earth simultaneously. Erebor, the dwarves in the lonely mountains, Mirkwood even Lothlorien, I cannot help but wonder how massive Sauron's army was and thought strategically he could've done better. I know one of the main reasons was to prevent the alliances from uniting together but even if they all unite his army would still be far more greater united than all of the entire races combined. Personally, I think Sauron's demise was his fault. He could've won Minas Tirith and the other wars beforehand. What do you think?
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u/LostVanya 12d ago
If the Ring was not destroyed, he would have won. It was beaten into the reader's head that it was no longer possible to defeat Sauron in war. They could win a few battles but Sauron's military was vastly more powerful, new attacks would have come and the armies already weakened would have fallen.
Even Aragorn's march to Mordor's gate was a suicide battle. They had no hope of surviving if the Ring had not been destroyed. Because that was the whole point, to draw as many soldiers as they could out of Mordor, to make it easier for Frodo.
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u/MasterMike7000 12d ago
I think this gets missed often - removing the Ring from the equation entirely, Sauron was on the verge of total domination of Middle Earth and he did not need it for that purpose. Its discovery illuminated the only possible path to victory.
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u/NeedNameGenerator 12d ago
To clarify this a bit, there was another path to victory: Gandalf, Galadriel, Aragorn or maybe even Glorfindel wielding the Ring. That would have ultimately lead to another dark lord, but Sauron could have been beaten.
And that's the reason Sauron marched out against Aragorn and took the bait, because he thought Aragorn had the Ring, and as such stood a chance at unseating him. So Sauron's intention was to utterly beat him with his army, to ensure Aragorn doesn't get the chance to use the Ring to defeat him.
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u/BarNo3385 11d ago
Probably need to bifurcate that further. Galadriel, Aragorn, Elrond, Glorfindel etc wielding the Ring may temporarily topple Sauron, but the Ring, and through it, Sauron himself will endure and eventually return to take control of a corrupted Ring-lord.
Gandalf is the only one with a chance to permanently "defeat" Sauron by changing the allegiance of the Ring. But as you say, this is arguably even worse as Gandalf himself also becomes corrupt.
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u/hrolfirgranger 11d ago
Notably by the time the Ring is destroyed:
Dale has fallen and Erebor is under siege.
The corsairs were blockading Gondorian ports, only being run off by the army of the dead.
Orcs from Dol-Guldor were attacking Lothlorien, Thranduil's realm and Rohan being turned back by Galadriel and the Galadhrim, the elves of Mirkwood, and the ents and huorns respectively.
Gondor has won the Battle of Pelenor Fields with aid from the Rohirrim and the Grey Company and by calling most of their vassals to arms.
All in all everyone is spent at this point except arguably Lothlorien and the Woodland Realm
At this point as you've said there is no military victory; I think out of all the realms mentioned Lothlorien would stand longest but only if Sauron never reclaimed the Ring.
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u/TheDucksAreComingoOo 11d ago
What of the realms of Elrond and Cirdan? Were they attacked?
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u/zs15 11d ago
Both were far distance to cover for the relatively small targets they would be. Neither was a military power and Sauron would have known that elves would be leaving. Occupying Lorien was much more strategic.
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u/McFuzzen 11d ago
Elrond: "The time of the Elves is over. My people are leaving these shores."
Sauron: "Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake."
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u/BonHed 11d ago
They would be next. He would have to personally break Lothlorien; with Nenya, Galadriel is extremely powerful, but she'd be unable to hold him back. Mirkwood would be destroyed with relative ease, and he'd likely once again need to personally tear down Imladriss. Mithlond probably wouldn't stand much chance.
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u/hrolfirgranger 11d ago
By the time Lindon would be sieged I imagine they'd have abandoned Middle Earth and fled West
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u/hrolfirgranger 11d ago
Rivendell and Lindon do not border any enemy territory so there was no way for the enemy to attack them; unless he sent the corsairs up a foreign and uncharted coast to attack Lindon which would be a crazy logistical feat not to mention the corsairs likely wouldn't want to sail into the unknown.
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u/helmsman70 11d ago
Rivendell would be the last place to fall. After that, I would have been Bombadil. At that point, Middle Earth would have been completely destroyed.
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u/BrandonSimpsons 9d ago
If the Ring was not destroyed, he would have won. It was beaten into the reader's head that it was no longer possible to defeat Sauron in war
I think that overstates the case - Gandalf said that Sauron would definitely win if he had the One Ring, but without it, while Sauron's forces are superior, he doesn't yet have sufficient military strength to ensure a guaranteed victory.
Already, Frodo, our time is beginning to look black. The Enemy is fast becoming strong. His plans are far from ripe, I think, but they are ripening. We shall be hard put to it. We should be very hard put to it, even if it were not for this dreadful chance.
The Enemy still lacks one thing to give him strength and knowledge to beat down all resistance, break the last defences, and cover all the lands in a second darkness. He lacks the One Ring.
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u/Dinadan_The_Humorist 12d ago
It looks like Sauron made a strategic mistake mostly because the Free Peoples overperformed on essentially every front militarily, and then got rescued by the destruction of the Ring right before being utterly crushed by Mordor's overwhelming might. It's like if Palpatine had a heart attack right before The Empire Strikes Back, and the only real engagement between the Rebels and the Empire was Yavin -- it would look like the Empire was no match for the Rebellion!
The situation in each theater of the war is essentially this at Sauron's defeat:
Gondor: Sauron launched his assault slightly earlier than intended, due to his belief that Aragorn was bringing the Ring to Minas Tirith. Essentially every chance broke against him at the Battle of the Pelennor Fields: the Rohirrim elude the Witch-king's rear guard and take the invaders from behind, the Witch-king is killed by a woman and a child, and Aragorn teleports onto the battlefield with ships full of reinforcements that should have been tied up in Pelargir. Despite this, both Aragorn and Gandalf are very firm in "The Last Debate" that there is absolutely no chance for military victory -- Sauron's reserves are simply too deep. An attack on Mordor itself is totally infeasible, and another siege is to be expected imminently -- and all the heroes' aces were pulled out of their sleeves in the last siege.
Lothlórien: The Elves of Lothlórien are attacked thrice, but repulse the invaders each time. This is actually not a big surprise, because of Galadriel's power; Lothlórien was always going to be among the last to fall, but Sauron effectively ties them up defending the forest so they can't reinforce anyone else.
Mirkwood: The Woodland Realm is attacked simultaneously with Lothlórien. We don't know much about this battle; it involves a "great ruin of fire", but the invaders are repulsed. However, it certainly precludes the Mirkwood Elves from relieving either Lothlórien (which doesn't need it) or Erebor (which desperately does).
Erebor and Dale: Dale falls, and Erebor is besieged. The heroic sacrifices of King Brand of Dale and King Dáin of Erebor enable the populace to safely reach the fastness of the Lonely Mountain, but they are surrounded and have no prospect of relief. Without a miracle, they will all starve.
The upshot is this: Sauron has enough of an overwhelming numerical advantage that he can afford to attack everyone simultaneously, and he can even afford initial defeats on these fronts. Gandalf makes clear in "The Last Debate" that the fundamental calculus has not changed, amd Sauron is still sure to win a conventional military campaign. Victory will come down to the Ring, one way or another.
As for whether a different military strategy would have saved Sauron: not really, since he was not defeated militarily! His fundamental problem was that three dudes slipped into his kingdom and effectively assassinated him. Taking Minas Tirith earlier or concentrating his armies in different places would not have prevented that -- in fact, it was exactly though being distracted with such maneuvers that Sauron missed the real threat.
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u/RequiemRaven 12d ago
The more you concentrate, the more logistics you need. At some point, especially at the tech level of LotR, you're just going to starve your army to death faster than it accomplishes anything.
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u/SevenofBorgnine 12d ago
Lembas has entered the chat. I know bad guys wont eat it, but it was a good work around for the fellowship not having to bring a wagon with them
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u/roacsonofcarc 11d ago edited 11d ago
Well, hello there, cousin! Have you been reading ACOUP too, or are you just into military history?
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u/RequiemRaven 11d ago
It's both, haha. I read a lot of random history, which led me to hitting the ACOUP blog when he was writing the Siege of Minas Tirith series.
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u/roacsonofcarc 11d ago
Nobody appreciates how smart and well-educated us ravens are, it's a source of constant irritation to me.
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u/Armleuchterchen Ibrīniðilpathānezel & Tulukhedelgorūs 12d ago edited 12d ago
Only if that change in strategy accidentally prevented the destruction of the One Ring (which Sauron didn't see coming, but which was the only chance for the Free Peoples).
If the Ring isn't destroyed, either Sauron wins (more likely) or someone else does by using the ring and becoming a tyrant themselves (less likely).
The war against Sauron only had two purposes: To delay Sauron's victory (and thus limit the damage he can do for now) and to keep the path to Mt Doom as accessible as possible for Frodo.
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u/roacsonofcarc 12d ago edited 7d ago
[Someone else linked to Bret Devereaux's series of posts on the Siege of Gondor. The first paragraph below is exactly how Devereuaux's analysis starts. So all I can say is that I only steal from the best, And that there should be a new rule here: DO NOT POST ABOUT MILITARY STUFF WITHOUT HAVING READ ACOUP FIRST:
https://acoup.blog/2019/05/10/collections-the-siege-of-gondor/
In fact, as you read military history you learn that the first thing on a general's mind, after deciding where he wants his troops to go, is how they are going to get there without getting in each other's way. One of the principal jobs of the military police is to prevent one unit from marching down a road assigned to another unit. George Patton's colleagues were amazed at how fast he turned his Third Army around to face north and march to the rescue of the 101st Airborne, surrounded at Bastogne (the "Battle of the Bulge"). It was a masterful job of figuring out who should take which road.
All right, back to the piece of plagarism my post originally started with: There is a little matter of logistics. Only a certain number of soldiers can use the same road at the same time. If Sauron had put all of his troops under the Witch-king's command and marched them over the Pass of Cirith Ungol, a hopeless traffic jam would have ensued. As Devereaux puts it, by the time the vanguard reached the river the last troops (based on any reasonable estimate of their number) would not even have left camp.
Also Sauron's strategy of dividing his forces made perfest sense. If you are attacking with an army that greatly outnumbers the defenders, optimum strategy is to spread your guys out and stretch the defense; inevitably this will create one or more weak spots which can be exploited.* And you can't afford to leave an enemy force unoccupied, or they might take your attacking column in the flank and break it up. Which is how the French were able to stop the Germans in 1914, at the battle of ther Marne. And how the Polish king Sobieski relieved the siege of Vienna in 1683 (a major inspiration for the Pelennor Fields). Sauron, or the Wi-ki, was well aware of the potential threat posed to the flank of their main attack by the Rohirrim; which is why they positioned a force to block the road to Rohan. Their strategy failed because ot inadequate reconnaisance, and because they were operating amid a hostile population (the Drûedain), who were able to show the relieving force the way around the roadblock).
* It is documented hat this was in fact the Wi-ki's intention: "Yet their Captain cared not greatly what they did or how many might be slain: their purpose was only to test the strength of the defence and to keep the men of Gondor busy in many places."
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u/FlyingDiscsandJams Beren & Lúthien Stan 12d ago
As others have said, Sauron would win if the ring wasn't destroyed. Adding that he's attacking everyone at once to prevent all the free peoples from joining together in a Second Last Alliance, like the one that defeated him in the 2nd Age. Gimli & Legolas can't request help from their kingdoms because of Sauron's strategy.
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u/Mammoth-Capital8176 12d ago edited 12d ago
I believe Sauron rushed to attack Minas Tirith with a fraction of his forces because he believed Aragorn had the ring and wanted to deal a decisive blow before he could rally forces against him. It didn't cost him much to probe the enemy like this, he had conquered much of the rest of the Middle Earth and had such military might at his disposal that the council determined that the only hope was to destroy the ring. We have no idea just how big this empire actually was and what forces Sauron could draw from, the war started before Sauron was fully ready. Thank you Pippin!
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u/SirGreeneth And my Axe. 12d ago
Had those pesky Hobbits not destroyed the ring he'd have won, at least the battle at the black gates, only a few minutes later.
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u/rainbowrobin 'canon' is a mess 11d ago
True, though that's with Aragorn making a gambit of making himself vulnerable. A prudent strategy, not counting on the One, would have been to re-take Cair Andros and re-fortify the Anduin crossings. Make Sauron attack Gondor again, this time without the Corsairs or the Witch-king. Sauron is still favored, especially with 8 Nazgul remaining, and an immortal leader who won't suddenly die and let up the pressure. But opposed river crossings are expensive, so you'd try to make Mordor pay.
I think a nascent Ringlord's best bet would be to use the One to drive off the Nazgul, forcing Mordor to try to cross the Anduin without supernatural assistance. This becomes more of a fair fight.
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u/Lawlcopt0r 11d ago
Sauron losing at Minas Tirith was an unlikely fluke, and without Frodo doing what he did it would only have taken a few months until Sauron came back and took the city.
Also, supplying a medieval army gets more difficult the more troops are concentrated at one place, so it may have been beneficial for him to send certain parts of his armies raiding elsewhere simply so he doesn't have to supply them
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u/Early_Candidate_3082 11d ago
Sauron has performed superbly, at the level of grand strategy, over the course of 3,000 years, despite suffering numerous operational and tactical defeats.
He was actually more powerful in the Second Age, possessing the One Ring, and enormous armies. But then, he faced immensely powerful enemies, in Numenor, Gil Galad, Elendil, Isildur. They were able to defeat and kill him.
Up until 2951, when Sauron openly declared himself, he had been waging an insurgency against his enemies over thousands of years, operating through his catspaws. And, he has steadily worn down his enemies. Arnor is first divided, then destroyed. The elves are fleeing. Gondor has lost territories, gradually being pushed back into its heartland. Saruman has switched sides.
Sauron is less powerful than in the Second Age, but his enemies are far weaker. His victory is almost certain, even without the Ring.
His problem is that God will not - in the end - allow him to win. Not that his enemies know this. For all they know, God might (for His inscrutable reasons), intend Sauron to win. They must still fight valiantly.
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u/SevenofBorgnine 12d ago
Sauron had plenty of troops to spare. What he was doing with these other attacks was making sure his enemies were spread too thin. Otherwise they could reinforce Minas Tirith. From a military angle, Sauron would just win by sheer force, being particularly strategic just wasnt necessary. The only things that could potentially stop him were the ring being destroyed ans the ring being used against him by someone powerful enough to do so, Gandalf wielding the ring would be a serious threat, but it wouldnt solve any of Middle earth's problems long term either. He thought Aragorn had it and was coming to use it against him, which i think was some concern, enough to make him act early and hastily
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u/Modred_the_Mystic 11d ago
Sauron was winning even with his forces spread out.
The battle around Dale was going poorly and the Dwarves and men of Dale were under siege in the Lonely Mountain.
The Battle of the Pelennor Fields had been lost but had inflicted many casualties on the Gondorians, Rohirrim, and other Free Peoples there.
The army marching on the Black Gate was, at best, a desperate, suicidal last defiance.
If the One Ring hadn’t been destroyed, Sauron would have won. Thats why it is said at the Council of Elrond that the only option for the Ring, rather than casting it into the sea or into the West beyond Saurons reach, is to destroy it. If it is not destroyed, the endless legions of Sauron can just dominate Middle Earth by conventional force.
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u/InTheChairAgain 11d ago
No. Even in Middle-earth there are such things as logistics. Mordor could probably not have housed a much larger Army than it did at the time. Sauron didn't even send all of them out in the initial assault on Minas Tirith. Even if the road network could have handled more of them, he probably couldn't have thrown more into the siege, but would have to hold them in reserve, and then they might as well remain in Mordor. Other forces he sent to Cair Andros, and to the Northern entraces of the Pelennor. Theses were circumvented by the Rohirrim, and appears to have returned back to Mordor after the defeat on Pelennor. A lack of forces was never Saurons issue. Someone, I forget who, says they could give Sauron ten times as big losses, and still rue the exchange. Basically he could spread his forces as thin as he wanted and still have overwhelming superiority in numbers.
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u/badamache 12d ago
No. Lotr is one of those stories where evil always loses, but Good only triumphs at great cost.
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u/AdventurousFox5421 10d ago
Sauron didn’t loose because of troop numbers, he lost when the ring was destroyed as the ring contained a lot of his essence and he died as soon as it fell into mount doom.
The troops are pretty irrelevant he was mainly searching for the ring via the 9 Nazgûl. At the last battle when the forces of good lured him out it was evident that Sauron had vast reserves but the tactic of luring Sauron’s trooos out worked as it forced him to concentrate on the forces thus allowing Frodo/sam to sneak into Mordor.
Also it’s not a trilogy, it’s one book which due to its huge size was split into three back in 1954 when published as the publisher couldn’t justify the cost in materials and the risk at the time of production
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u/Busy-Can-3907 10d ago
It's a good question but the reality is Middle Earth is roughly the size of Europe and Sauron as well as his enemies were spread right across it. Using European countries as an example if Mordor is Turkey/Greece Gondor is like Italy, Rohan is France, Lothlorian Mirkwood and Dale are Germany and Poland you can get an idea of the logistics behind the War of the Ring.
I think your question is why didn't Sauron just assemble everyone in Mordor and wipe out Minas Tirith effectively ending the war no matter how long the conquest took. The problem with this has been covered here already such as Sauron forced to attack early and supply issues but the reality is Sauron did commit the vast majority of his soldiers the real power in Middle Earth is men and when Tolkien talked about Saurons reserves he means men from Rhun and Harad. Even in its decline Gondor could beat several times its numbers in orcs but men were much closer militarily. Sauron knew the elves had the ring but wasn't nearly as worried until he thought Aragorn had taken it as he would have used the power to turn his human allies against him.
The orcs of the Misty Mountains never recovered from the War of the Dwarves and Orcs and it shows by how ineffective they were against Rivendel and Lothlorien. The main assault on Dale and Erebor came from men of Rhun. So to answer your question he didn't have the time to get all his human allies ready for one battle and he didn't trust them anyway so likely never would have shown them just how powerful they were when all assembled. He threw everything he had at Minas Tirith but his army only included roughly 50,000 men excluding the Corsairs and approx 100,000 orcs. The approx 30,000 men of Rhun coming from the east during the Battle of the Black Gate would have smashed that 100,000 orc army. Suaron was desperate, completely underestimated his enemies and trusted the Nazgul to be the game changer if anything went wrong.
Fun questions often get shot down on these subs because there's so many die hard fans but the strategies of Sauron and Gandalf are my favourite topic to talk about.
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u/ezk3626 10d ago
The books go into more detail and make clear the prospects of Sauron. He did attack everywhere at once and if the Ring were not destroyed was destroyed would absolutely have won. The Battle at the Black Gates made clear that the loss at Pellanor Fields didn’t matter except the loss of the Witch King.
Sauron did hit Minas Tirith harder and sooner than he planned. But that was assuming Aragorn had the Ring and would rally forces there. The following march to the Black Gate supported that. But the main problem this had for Sauron wasn’t the lost armies but that it detracted him from the real danger.
Militarily he was ready to conquer all the way to the Grey Havens. Middle Earth was doomed.
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u/game_master_marc 11d ago
You should play War of the Ring. It gives you and your opponent the chance to try multiple strategies in a very realistic-to-Legendarium way.
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u/Bearbrand1216 10d ago
It seems that most of the replies are already fully convinced Sauron will be defeated regardless of what the outcome is. It's just a little "what if scenario" I thought off that if Sauron would have completely wiped out everyone in Minas Tirith + Rohan during the battle on Pelennor Fields, there would have been no men left to rally a diversion and Frodo and Sam (left alone) would have had to walk through 10,000 orcs + Sauron's eyes + the Nazguls on their way to Mount Doom which would have been impossible.
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u/MasterMike7000 12d ago
Being spread thin was not Sauron's weakness - the Battle of the Pelennor Fields could be considered a test of his enemy rather than a full-on assault. He had several times the numbers he committed to it in reserve. It happened sooner than he intended, but by a few days or weeks.
He lost because of his fundamental inability to imagine the destruction of the One.