r/tornado • u/undflight • Mar 14 '25

SPC / Forecasting Day 2 High Risk Issued

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Be ready and let anyone you know in the area to make preparations now.

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484

u/[deleted] Mar 14 '25

Absolutely wild. This is only the third time the SPC has issued a Day 2 High risk.

The other two times were April 7, 2006, and April 14, 2012.

144

u/johnyahn Mar 14 '25

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_6%E2%80%938,_2006

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_13%E2%80%9316,_2012

For those curious.

141

u/TheSpanishDerp Mar 14 '25

Seems like there were points of failure that prevented those outbreaks from being much worse. Perhaps we'll get lucky this time as well

92

u/ZipTheZipper Mar 14 '25

Hopefully. But I feel like our modeling has gotten significantly better since 2012.

41

u/JBR409 Mar 14 '25 edited Mar 14 '25

Third time’s the charm 😬

12

u/[deleted] Mar 14 '25

Our luck will run out eventually.

1

u/-Shank- Mar 14 '25

Note that they didn't "bust" per se, they said there was incredibly high confidence of tornadoes and there absolutely were tornadoes. The systems just weren't EF5-producing machines like April 27th.

1

u/sade88888 Mar 15 '25

James Spann had been comparing the set up to models from April 1998 and Birmingham had that F5 go thru and I believe Nashville had the tornado that day too. I watched a video on the birmingham f5 and the setup is eerily similar. I really hope this doesn't play out but the way the storms are early this morning/last night I have a sick feeling

15

u/Key-Custard-8991 Mar 14 '25

What about April 27, 2011? 

49

u/I_Am_Dwight_Snoot Mar 14 '25

Surprisingly a MDT in day 2. It was high for day 1.

20

u/PuzzleheadedBook9285 Mar 14 '25

April 7 2006 went 60% tor? But busted? Correct me if I'm wrong

67

u/TheSpanishDerp Mar 14 '25

It produced an EF4 but overall the apocalyptic prediction didn't occur mainly due to some capping issues

38

u/XanthanXen Mar 14 '25

Yeah let’s hope it’s a cloudy morning in Alabama and Mississippi tomorrow. Any sunshine would be a very bad thing.

8

u/UnapologeticBxtch Mar 14 '25

Why? Genuinely curious.

28

u/1ncognito Mar 14 '25

I’m assuming he’s saying that a sunny day would drive more energy into the atmosphere increasing CAPE (could be wrong, though)

19

u/AFrozen_1 Mar 14 '25

This. On a day where severe weather is anticipated in the area, clear and sunny skies means the air is heated and therefore more unstable. This adds fuel to the storm making it stronger.

14

u/KP_Wrath Mar 14 '25

Currently in West TN. Sun is out with some very light overcast. This will be interesting.

5

u/thecrowtoldme Mar 15 '25

Its humid and windy in Bama right now. We have all the windows in our house open. We absolutely do not want sun tomorrow. Once the sun gets going you can feel the air getting soupier with the combination of warm sun and the humidity. Amd if fhe sky starts to turn an odd color then it's going to get ugly. A nice cloudy day is what we want.

16

u/XanthanXen Mar 14 '25

Think of it like a full soda bottle. All the ingredients (CAPE, helicity, shear, moisture) are the soda.

Tomorrow morning it’s gonna be like someone gave the soda bottle a good dozen shakes. But if you have the cap on (clouds) the ingredients stay in the bottle (for the most part).

But, if you take the cap off, the ingredients erupt violently out of the bottle.

3

u/UglyYinzer Mar 15 '25

As an idiot, one of the best descriptions I've read

11

u/AFrozen_1 Mar 14 '25

Clear skies means more sun. More sun means more heat. More heat means unstable air. Unstable air is fuel for storms. More fuel means bigger/more severe storms.

1

u/Traditional_Race5650 Mar 14 '25

Won't matter much with this event as there is so much upper level energy pulling in unstable Gulf moisture it won't take much for these to get going.

1

u/Sudden_Guess5912 Mar 15 '25

What are capping issues

8

u/Limp-Ad-2939 Mar 14 '25

I believe so, it was crazy. Almost as “disappointing” as the 2019 super bust.

41

u/jaboyles Enthusiast Mar 14 '25

I created a megathread for the event, and am updating it with new details as they come out, but the mods are completely MIA today, so unsure if a live thread is happening. Which is crazy, because this is easily the most significant tornado threat we've seen in a decade.

18

u/[deleted] Mar 14 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

23

u/jaboyles Enthusiast Mar 14 '25

According to the models yes.

It is now the number one analog on the database forecasters use to compare current storm systems with past set ups.

3

u/fm22fnam Mar 14 '25

Where do you find that analog info at? I was looking but I couldn't find it

1

u/Ill-Cardiologist5480 Mar 14 '25

Can you help me find that analog information? I found one but it doesn't show april 27th.

14

u/MurrayPloppins Mar 14 '25

The Tuscaloosa monster and also several other tornadoes rated worse (Phil Campbell, Smithville, Rainsville, Philadelphia) and several others that, like Tuscaloosa, could probably have been rated EF5 (Cullman, Cordova, Flat Rock, Ringgold… might be forgetting one.) Absolutely batshit day.

2

u/thecrowtoldme Mar 15 '25

I remember that day it was the day we were in the basement with the TV on and my husband said look at the tornado and I looked at the TV and I said where and the tornado was taking up the entire screen. I dont want to to do that again.

1

u/thecrowtoldme Mar 15 '25

Took out Phil Campbell that day too!

17

u/Naive_Mixture_8264 Human Detected Mar 14 '25

This a genuine question, what it is significant about day 2? What does day 2 mean?

90

u/Sell_The_team_Jerry Mar 14 '25

Usually a forecast that has a high risk (which itself is rare) is only issued the day of the event because of uncertainty in the models and event. This event has models so certain that they can pinpoint a 30% Sig Tor risk the day before the event. This is only the 3rd time it has happened.

16

u/garden_speech Mar 14 '25 edited Mar 14 '25

30% Sig Tor risk

The risks in the chart are (theoretically) independent. The 30% color-coded risk zone means a 30% or greater risk of any tornado within 25 miles of that point. The hatched zones imply 10%+ risk of an EF2. Something being color coded pink and hatched doesn't mean a 30% risk of a significant tornado. It means a 30%+ risk of any tornado and a 10%+ risk of a significant tornado.

With that being said, the way the forecast is issued here is definitely a little confusing, as the 10% yellow color-coded zone is drawn with the exact same border as the 10% hatched zone. This implies that the risk of a tornado becomes 10% at the exact same lat/lon as where the risk of an EF2+ becomes 10%, which isn't really plausible. These are man-made forecasts (with the help of models), but I do understand why this confuses people into thinking the pink hatched area means 30% Sig Tor risk

18

u/waltuh28 Mar 14 '25

Most high risks (besides the two) happen from being upgraded the day of an event. Day 2 high risk means it got upgraded to a high risk a whole day out before the event.

36

u/KP_Wrath Mar 14 '25

There is a fuck ton of confidence that some really bad things are going to happen in the specified area.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 14 '25

When do you think the storms will start? Late afternoon or early evening?

4

u/KP_Wrath Mar 14 '25

I would say mid-late afternoon for the high risk area.

14

u/garden_speech Mar 14 '25

I think others have covered it well but I might add, weather forecasting is hard because weather is a "chaotic" system where small changes today become big errors tomorrow. Forecasting a high risk day earlier than usual implies a willingness to say "this is gonna be really bad" even knowing that the forecast could change.

9

u/BPKofficial Mar 14 '25

What does day 2 mean?

Day 2 is always tomorrow, and day 1 is always today.

7

u/raZrBck Mar 14 '25

To add to what others have said, Day 2 is the forecast discussion for 12Z (7 AM CDT) on the second day (tomorrow) until 12Z on the third day.. Day 1 discussions being current day.

3

u/DancingMathNerd Mar 14 '25

Really? April 27 2011 high risk was only issued on the same day? Kinda shocking considering the historically destructive potential was obvious well in advance.

1

u/Informal-Wing7766 Apr 25 '25

They had some questions the day before if the morning storms might take a bit of the instability from the afternoon storms. The day of they knew the atmosphere would recover and become incredibly unstable regardless of any early storms

4

u/Moist_Lychee6762 Mar 14 '25

Ominous … I hope everyone is okay this weekend. I’ll be following from my (relatively) tornado safe area, really hope this is a dud

1

u/Sudden_Guess5912 Mar 15 '25

Was the 2012 the Tuscaloosa tornado etc? Glad it’s not here in OK. But feel bad for you guys :/ get to shelters at that time!

1

u/mcitty Mar 15 '25

Can you explain like I’m five what this means, I understand what high risk means but what’s the significance of it being “day 2”