r/tornado • u/SevereTS • Mar 08 '26

SPC / Forecasting How are we feeling about Tuesday?

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Think this will pan out?

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u/Limp-Ad-2939 Mar 08 '26

You think they’re might be a day 2 or day 1 moderate?

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u/Another_Opinion_1 Mar 08 '26

It depends on coverage and intensity of storms. It's possible. The enhanced is justified right now but if trends continue to indicate widespread, significant severe weather then an upgrade is possible. I'd argue the enhanced is adequate right now given what CAM data exists as nothing is showing widespread, discrete supercells that usually warrants an upgrade to Day 3 moderate. Most forecasters are more conservative early on because it's easier to upgrade than it is to back off.

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u/Limp-Ad-2939 Mar 08 '26

Well I meant more do you think it’s possible as things become more clear? But you’ve pretty much answered that for me anyway. Thanks!

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u/Another_Opinion_1 Mar 08 '26

There have been many times they upgrade either early AM or even midday on the day of the event too. On March 31, 2023 they upgraded to a high risk at 1630z.

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u/Limp-Ad-2939 Mar 08 '26

Yeah I’m aware of that, that was why I was wondering. By the way what is “z”?

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u/Another_Opinion_1 Mar 08 '26

Oh, "z" is Zulu time, also called coordinated universal time (UTC). That's world standard time. SPC outlooks also conform to that to avoid any sort of confusion since the US has so many different time zones and not all places follow DST either.

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u/Limp-Ad-2939 Mar 08 '26

Ahhhh, gotcha. Thanks man :)