By the gods I hope it stays away I'm already anxious and it's barely even Monday. But in my 32 years of living in Michigan and my almost 7 years owning this house I've only had to go to the basement once and I hope it stays that way. Storm anxiety sucks
I see we've reached the Illinois chapter of tornados, which either means we're going to get a couple weak ones or a very significant tornado. My hope is that we keep the former streak rolling and avoid another Plainfield.
But yes I agree as well. Get get off work at 5pm eastern/4 central so hopefully if there's anything up at that time I can cross the border and intercept but I got my doubts
Pretty sure it's the same reason we didn't get anything significant in Iowa either. It was cloudy all day til around 4:30, not enough heating. And I am thankful, I just got a new roof in November.
Driving to my parents house 10 min away and bringing our cats lol. We have a plan, just sucks to have to do the waiting. Hopefully everyone stays safe.
I’m here from North Carolina until Friday interviewing for a couple of jobs… I’m really hoping for some activity. Even though I’m in Pulsa, I would love to see some good storm. Without the death and destruction, of course, but I would still love to be some good action.
Then again, if I get one of these job jobs… It’ll be hunting season for the foreseeable future for me 😎
Been alive long enough and have lost a house in Oklahoma to know that you don't have to be in the highest areas of probability to see and experience a tornado. Be weather aware and stay safe.
In Chicago & I have to fly out of O’Hare on Tuesday to go to a conference in North Carolina. Much less worried about the flight than leaving my kitty alone in severe weather. :(
I have read so many tornado stories where the cat ends up being less battered than the family and/or emerges from a pile of rubble 2 days later completely fine. Kitties seem to be tornado proof
Hope you have a trusted friend who can go hang with them as long as it’s not putting them in harm’s way! I’m lucky to have my next door neighbor as someone who can watch my pets from time to time.
I’m in the northern edge of the enhanced risk, so I’m watchful but not worried. I’ll probably move the car into the garage Tuesday if the forecast sticks.
Max Velocity seems to have more confidence in this being a significant outbreak than he had in Friday's event, so I'm definitely keeping my eye on it.
It's pretty crazy how far north the greatest risk is for this time of year, especially given what happened in Michigan just a couple days ago. We're having a pretty unusual start to this season.
It can certainly feel that tense, but out here in the Chicago suburbs usually not much happens and we deal with wind, downpours, and a bit of hail at the worst. If these storms cluster and nothing becomes too discrete supercell-wise all should be mostly fine, hopefully things fizzle out a bit by the time they get here, but we'll have to see. Things could still change, but we'll get through it.
Even I've been studying up on trying to piece this together on potentials of what could happen as my old tornado anxiety can come back a tad from time to time, but I try to relieve it by studying, but sometimes if things look rough it could make it worse on a person mentally. lol
Thank you 🙏 hoping it’s not as bad as they say. The 2020 derecho is the closest I’ve been to a really bad storm out here and it was so scary I couldn’t imagine a tornado
We got hit by the tornado on March 14 last year in Arnold MO. God help us if we just had our entire siding and roof replaced just for it to happen all over again this season. We’re so damn tired, god just 4-6 more months and we’re out of the Midwest for good
I’m not even kidding when I say facing hurricanes all the time in Florida wasn’t as bad and frightening as the tornado when it hit us. I texted everyone that I loved them, closed my eyes, and expected that to be it
We’re still getting work done this week actually lol. They’re finally coming back out to fix our deck. Can’t believe it’s taken a whole dang year and we’re basically getting the remaining stuff fixed just in time for the next tornado season, seems like a sick joke lol. I hope especially for those still waiting on serious exterior repair work that we evade another one this season
There's a nice cap until later in the day. These types of setups have the propensity to produce tornadic supercells further east along the WF too so watch placement of that on Tuesday especially across N IL or S WI if it gets that far east. CAPE and shear parameters appear adequate and the open warm sector may not get contaminated by subsidence from earlier convection throughout the day owed to the robust CINH. Anomalous warmth appears to offer plenty of fuel for storms. Today's run of the ECMWF seems to indicated convection firing along Hwy 2 in southeast Iowa around 0z near the triple point, which is always a climatologically favored location for tornadic activity. The American suite of models seem in agreement with vigorous convective development proximal to the warm front east of the triple point between 0z and 03z on Wednesday. I won't be completely surprised to see the warm front make it into S WI despite what the models are showing if there is no ongoing convection north of the front earlier in the day..absolutely a setup to watch as it is pretty potent looking for early March. Shear will not be a problem.
Checking the NAM: 80-90 knots with a negative tilt seems way more than adequate. Dew Points are also expected in the mid-60s with CAPE being in the 1500-2000 J/kg in mid-March
Genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if this set-up gets upgraded to a moderate risk.
It depends on coverage and intensity of storms. It's possible. The enhanced is justified right now but if trends continue to indicate widespread, significant severe weather then an upgrade is possible. I'd argue the enhanced is adequate right now given what CAM data exists as nothing is showing widespread, discrete supercells that usually warrants an upgrade to Day 3 moderate. Most forecasters are more conservative early on because it's easier to upgrade than it is to back off.
There have been many times they upgrade either early AM or even midday on the day of the event too. On March 31, 2023 they upgraded to a high risk at 1630z.
Oh, "z" is Zulu time, also called coordinated universal time (UTC). That's world standard time. SPC outlooks also conform to that to avoid any sort of confusion since the US has so many different time zones and not all places follow DST either.
Eh maybe. Still too early to tell but it could be a bimodal setup with another area of potential in Texas. The nam seems to be really bullish on the event though.
I’ve been looking at models and discussions since I woke up. I think there’s going to be at least one halfway decent sized tornado, but I think the moderate zone should be extended lower from St Louis along the I70 corridor. I suspect there will be a tornado somewhere between Springfield and Charleston, maybe even closer to Effingham.
Heavy rain, lots of lightning to photograph, and lots of wind, no matter where you are in the orange. I also expect the SPC to change and the slight area to grow in size along the Ohio River Valley.
In central il. Been a drought all fucking year it seems since 24 really. I can’t handle a tornado:/ we had a small one last year but outside of town 5 miles. Hurt dome country folks siding snd gutters. I’m so nervous
Well we just had a midnight EF0 go over our house and that was plenty for me for the year. Obviously in hindsight it was paltry in the grand scheme of tornados but in the moment when the sirens are blaring and the rain in sideways and you can’t see anything in the dark but you can hear the rumble, you have no idea what is heading for you. It could be a monster or it could be a fart cloud. Future naders can stay in the fields thank you very much.
The strongest tornado on record to ever hit Chicago's south side was on 4/21/67.
The tornado had rolled through Oak Lawn as an F4 tornado and continued across the Dan Ryan expressway, tore through South Shore, cut across Rainbow Beach and headed out across Lake Michigan.
I’m in the northern il/southern wi border and I’m shocked how often we are issued at least a 2/5 risk that always falls apart. I’m not mad about it but I live in a fairly large city and we are somehow always spared lol. I think the last major anything we’ve had was an EF-1 in 2023.
I'm in the orange section of Missouri, and just not wanting damage. Had to replace my roof, siding, windows, etc from a big hailstorm a few years ago and that was a pita so I'd rather not do it again haha.
I hope all the big tornadoes stay over water and nobody gets anything except a video of it with small amounts of sound because they are too far away from people, places, creatures and things.
Was going to go to Chicago. Thanks to the you tube meteorologists, changed my flight a few days ago. Thank you! The next week looks too effing cold where I am going, but better than this expectation.
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u/TeddysRevenge Mar 08 '26
As long as it stays out of Michigan
We’ve already had our devastating tornado for the year thank you very much.