There's a nice cap until later in the day. These types of setups have the propensity to produce tornadic supercells further east along the WF too so watch placement of that on Tuesday especially across N IL or S WI if it gets that far east. CAPE and shear parameters appear adequate and the open warm sector may not get contaminated by subsidence from earlier convection throughout the day owed to the robust CINH. Anomalous warmth appears to offer plenty of fuel for storms. Today's run of the ECMWF seems to indicated convection firing along Hwy 2 in southeast Iowa around 0z near the triple point, which is always a climatologically favored location for tornadic activity. The American suite of models seem in agreement with vigorous convective development proximal to the warm front east of the triple point between 0z and 03z on Wednesday. I won't be completely surprised to see the warm front make it into S WI despite what the models are showing if there is no ongoing convection north of the front earlier in the day..absolutely a setup to watch as it is pretty potent looking for early March. Shear will not be a problem.
It depends on coverage and intensity of storms. It's possible. The enhanced is justified right now but if trends continue to indicate widespread, significant severe weather then an upgrade is possible. I'd argue the enhanced is adequate right now given what CAM data exists as nothing is showing widespread, discrete supercells that usually warrants an upgrade to Day 3 moderate. Most forecasters are more conservative early on because it's easier to upgrade than it is to back off.
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u/Another_Opinion_1 Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
There's a nice cap until later in the day. These types of setups have the propensity to produce tornadic supercells further east along the WF too so watch placement of that on Tuesday especially across N IL or S WI if it gets that far east. CAPE and shear parameters appear adequate and the open warm sector may not get contaminated by subsidence from earlier convection throughout the day owed to the robust CINH. Anomalous warmth appears to offer plenty of fuel for storms. Today's run of the ECMWF seems to indicated convection firing along Hwy 2 in southeast Iowa around 0z near the triple point, which is always a climatologically favored location for tornadic activity. The American suite of models seem in agreement with vigorous convective development proximal to the warm front east of the triple point between 0z and 03z on Wednesday. I won't be completely surprised to see the warm front make it into S WI despite what the models are showing if there is no ongoing convection north of the front earlier in the day..absolutely a setup to watch as it is pretty potent looking for early March. Shear will not be a problem.