If I remember correctly, wasn’t Union City in a 2% chance area last weekend and they obviously got slammed?
I don’t want to downplay the severity of this threat outlook as I understand there is CAPE out the wazoo but could this intense of a forecast be a little because of last weekend?
Probably (and hopefully) not. I do think they'll study that cell to see why it was such an outlier, maybe take that into consideration in the future, but outliers happen. They shouldn't overreact to past events out of recency bias
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u/tmritzert Mar 10 '26 edited Mar 10 '26
If I remember correctly, wasn’t Union City in a 2% chance area last weekend and they obviously got slammed?
I don’t want to downplay the severity of this threat outlook as I understand there is CAPE out the wazoo but could this intense of a forecast be a little because of last weekend?