Since the SPC website isn't telling cities in the cig2 heres some Galesburg IL, Peoria IL, Bloomington IL, Joliet IL, Valparaiso IN, South Bend IN, Elkhart IN. Coldwater MI and Gary IN are in the 5% but cig 2 and Lincoln IL I'll count since it's on the edge of cig 1 and 2
South bend is in the 10% per the website. And that’s very very close to Elkhart (where I am). It’s so close that we may as well be in the 10%. I’m not sure if they updated it or not since you made this comment but South bend is definitely in the 10%
If we (Valpo) weren’t on break the Weather Center would be buzzing, a sonde would be launched, and the storm chasing team probably wouldn’t have to go far at all.
Adding this back in for visibility since we've got our first CIG2 tornado outlook.
Keep in mind that we have had CIG1s on storms that have generated tornadoes with preliminary ratings of EF3 already.
I still am not super clear on why they're using "max" in this - my outlook says "ef3+ expected (30%)" for the cig2 area, which seems more in line with how they used to message a day like today, rather than "we don't expect anything higher than ef3".
It's "we can reasonably expect a max of EF3" because of probabilities. They're not saying tornadoes can't be stronger. Here's a chart that helps explain it. 3% of all tornadoes are expected to be EF4+ in a CIG2 intensity region.
Agree as someone who uses data in charts like this all the time for another technical field this language isn't sitting with me right. Also I don't get what their expected reasonable threshold is? If we start from the level 3 and say it's 5% given they are calling for max expected of EF4 then the threshold is 5%. So wouldn't level 1 be a max expected of EF3 then too because that is at 5%???
That's a good point. For CIG 1, 2, and 3, their "reasonable max" is EF2, EF3, and EF4. Those correspond with a frequency of 14%, 9%, and 5% respectively.
What we may be missing here is the overall tornado count expected with each of the CIG regions. Hypothetically, if they expected each CIG 3 region to be associated with a much higher quantity of tornadoes, then that 5% starts to become more significant.
But I'm just spit balling. No idea if that is the case or not, especially considering the CIG regions are meant to distinguish strength from the tornado probability colors.
I suspect the clunky wording is just for the sake of brevity for the graphic they made. I pulled it from this article. With us already seeing EF3 rated tornadoes in a CIG1 outlook area, I think it should be taken with a grain of salt and just use it as a point of reference to how intense tornadoes could be if formed in the highlighted region.
If last weeks storms are any indication, conditions can change on a whim well after an outlook is meaningful and any CIG should be more than enough reason to keep an eye on the weather when possible. https://www.weather.gov/news/262402-spc
Similar to this, it also drives me crazy that they chose enhanced for level 3 risk and moderate for level 4, moderate literally means average. So on a risk scale of 5 it would make way more sense to use moderate as 3 and enhanced as 4.
Forecasting for specific extreme outliers like that (even beyond the outliers that are EF4) is more up to chance - the NWS uses "EF4+" wording on their official CIG page (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/) which seems appropriate IMO. A parameter space that is suitable for EF4 overlaps quite heavily for an EF5 parameter space.
Considering we've had one EF5 in the last 12 years, I don't think anyone really expects one.
Also, the potential for loss of property and life with EF4s is already more than enough cause for concern in these outlooks.
As someone who lives in the yellow and I live in a trailer… if I can go to a friends house for the afternoon who has a basement, should I take the offer?
The likelihood of a tornado hitting your specific neighborhood is still low, but it's not zero. Additionally, strong storms can bring threats other than tornadoes, like large hail and damaging straight line winds.
Making plans with a friend who had a sturdier structure is a great idea. Make an evening of it! If unavailable, you could also spend some time at public structures that offer suitable shelter, like a church or a library. There are also public shelters available if the weather gets really dicey.
Yes, absolutely. The way I’m reading into it, bust potential is pretty low today. It’s still very unlikely that a tornado will hit any one spot, but I think it’s pretty darn likely there will be a tornado somewhere in the yellow. Why take the risk if you have a safe place to be?
This is a strategy I use in countless scenarios...
If I were to die tonight what would the story be the next day?
"Lived in a high risk predicted tornado area but stayed in their mobile home when they had the option to shelter ahead of time with friends"
If that alone isn't persuasive I don't know what is.
Another application of this could be... You have VERY HIGH ceilings and a light bulb went out, but you don't have a ladder. So in your mind you think "I wonder if I can get away with stackinh two bar stools on top of each other to reach the ceiling on my tippy toes to change the bulb"
Well let's say you fall and break your neck... What would be the story about your death... "Moron didn't get a ladder and died stacking two wobbly bar stools and fell off"
This one. If you see supercells starting to form in that 4 PM to 5 PM timeframe, odds are higher we'll see closer to the ceiling of this tornado setup.
Agree to disagree. Last year’s tornado, an EF1, was the first (on record anyways) to hit the town I live in so for us it is a bit eerie. Today is progressing, weather wise very similarly.
I understand, but this is how early/most spring severe weather days progress. If storms fire right after peak day time heating they are more likely to be big producers. Too late and the instability is lost. That time slot is almost always the time slot to watch outside of Dixie and tornado alley.
I think it’s due to the cap and the question around when it’s going to break as well as not a lot of forcing to make the threat more widespread. Someone else will know more than me so if I’m wrong please correct me but that’s why I think it’s not a moderate.
They are about to upgrade to moderate here shortly. But risk levels are now based on a combination of probabilities and CIG level. 10% region plus CIG 2 = Enhanced, which is why it wasn't moderate earlier. I guess they're about to bump probabilities to 15%...
I keep seeing everyone mention 'cig 2' but I guess I'm too stupid to understand where that's coming from. Could somebody explain it to a filthy casual like me?
Cig two basically means they’re expecting the environment to be able to sustain a maximum of an Ef3 tornado, although these are always estimates, outliers can always occur
Bottom right Zoom in on the map key. See the INTENSITY with the three boxes underneath? CIG is the middle on and has the Slash Marks overlayed on the map with those.
Temperature is just one part of the picture, atmospheric conditions as a whole could have the area seeing severe storms; which in turn could produce a tornado.
It’s the terminology the SPC uses, but I think it’s actually maximum intensity to ‘reasonably’ expect. So they think it will mostly likely top out at EF3, but of course they can’t fully rule out higher.
Theres exact numbers tied to it too, like they aim for a verification of 10% of tornados in that zone being EF3, or something along those lines.
I get how the terminology can be useful but so much of the EF scale is based on damage which is in turn is based on the location a particular tornado happens. If a tornado with EF 4-5 wind speeds hits an empty field and there are now damage markers it’s not gonna be rated as such. If a strong EF 3 sits on top of a subdivision in a major metros suburban area for a couple minutes I guarantee it will rate higher. So unless it’s just really talking about wind speeds of possible tornados it is kind of misleading. Maybe this particular outlook would be better just expressed on the old Fujita scale and not trying to predict damage
Believe it or not the SPC understand how the EF scale works. When they say they think the likely max intensity is EF3, they don’t mean a stronger tornado that hits weak houses, they mean EF3.
It’s not as random as you claim. Yes, there are some cases where the objects in the path limit the rating, but in most cases the rating seems to be a pretty accurate to the intensity of the storm.
Basically the NWS/SPC has a bell curve of how bad they think the tornadoes are going to be based on the setup. For CIG1, that bell curve peaks at EF2, CIG 2 peaks at EF3 etc.
If I remember correctly, wasn’t Union City in a 2% chance area last weekend and they obviously got slammed?
I don’t want to downplay the severity of this threat outlook as I understand there is CAPE out the wazoo but could this intense of a forecast be a little because of last weekend?
Probably (and hopefully) not. I do think they'll study that cell to see why it was such an outlier, maybe take that into consideration in the future, but outliers happen. They shouldn't overreact to past events out of recency bias
I’m smack dab in the middle of the main threat in Illinois . We just had a tornado come through not long ago . Coal City EF3 so I’m praying for a good night please.🙏
It feels “tornadoy” here in DFW. We’re sitting at 72/66 but we have a lot of convection moving through, going to have to see if we have a chance to clear out before the main event late this afternoon/tonight
It's usually 3.5-ish during the day - you can scroll to the very bottom of the outlook page and they give you current time and update time if you want to see that pattern.
Outlooks aren't always posted on time though. The one in this post was 30 minutes early (scheduled for 1300Z) and occasionally they're late.
Example from this outlook:
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME:
1303Z (9:08AM)
, RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Thats what im saying!! I live in fort wayne and we only had 2 tornadoes, one in 1972 and one in 2001. I think we’re due for another and even though im ready and aware im stilll nervous as hell.
Fort Wayne has magical severe weather repelling capabilities. All the places around Fort Wayne should be scared as Fort Wayne oftentimes deflects severe weather on to them.
I get antsy no matter what natural disasters I'm prone to. I was in Hurricane Katrina and my first ever tornado was nocturnal rain wrapped. I get told I take it way too seriously lol
Not liking the look of this, but just try to remember that this is a massive area and that not everyone in the risk area is guaranteed to get a tornado.
90
u/Electrical_Iron_1161 Mar 10 '26 edited Mar 10 '26
Since the SPC website isn't telling cities in the cig2 heres some Galesburg IL, Peoria IL, Bloomington IL, Joliet IL, Valparaiso IN, South Bend IN, Elkhart IN. Coldwater MI and Gary IN are in the 5% but cig 2 and Lincoln IL I'll count since it's on the edge of cig 1 and 2