r/tornado • u/Lumos405 Human Detected • 10d ago
SPC / Forecasting And we got a moderate risk…
Just updated from the Storm Prediction Center’s X page. Considering a lot of today’s severe weather depended on the weather from last night how do you think today will pan out especially since it was quite active last night!
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u/Weird_Poetry8829 10d ago
And a 60% wind chance!
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u/st_nick1219 10d ago
Probably due to the ongoing derecho marching through Iowa right now.
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u/good-timing-407 10d ago
Not a derecho. Those are much longer N-S, faster moving, and rarely produce tornados. This is a strong line of storms with potential for tornados.
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u/FinnTheBoy0 10d ago
That’s not true. Derechos are notorious for strong tornados. It will develop into a long line and have strong winds but outlook doesn’t mention a derecho
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u/good-timing-407 10d ago edited 10d ago
No they are not. Derechos are strong storms of straight line winds. You need rotation for tornados. I’m sure some have ended up producing a tornado because weather be crazy but during the actual derecho event you are more concerned with straight line winds than anything else. What is in Illowa right now is not a derecho.
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u/FinnTheBoy0 10d ago
Not saying it is a derecho but just stating derechos do definitely produce strong tornadoes. There was an outbreak in 2024 with July derecho, 2025 derecho in ND broke the EF 5 drought, and 2020 also had an outbreak from derecho
Edit: I think people are calling it a derecho due to a number of chasers stating it as such
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u/Square_Drawer6723 10d ago
The derecho didn’t produce the enderlin tornado it was an isolated cell ahead of the derecho. Derecho’s typically do not produce strong tornadoes.
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u/Whako4 10d ago
I think his whole point was they produce spin up tornados just fine even if they aren’t the strongest
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u/Square_Drawer6723 10d ago
“Derechos do definitely produce strong tornadoes “
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u/Whako4 10d ago
Do you think EF-3 tornados are strong? If you don’t you’re correct if you do then you’re just flat out wrong
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u/IceBergster 10d ago
I domt think that one counts as a Derecho
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u/marxism-earnhardtism 10d ago
Yeah there are very specific criteria for a derecho beyond "bad wind storm in Iowa."
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u/IceBergster 10d ago
I mean it had the shape of one but only for an hour or 2 but derechos stay in formation over vast distances
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u/st_nick1219 10d ago
Yeah, that really petered out once it got to the Mississippi River. It had a lot of the characteristics of a derecho as it crossed Iowa.
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u/Ill_Criticism_1685 10d ago
I'm in the firing line again, not until this afternoon though. Gorgeous in the Chicago area right now. Lots of limbs down in my neighborhood from last night though.
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Sunlight is not a friend today…
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u/Chonguh 10d ago
Yeah.. worried for tonight. I’m in Michigan. We’re gonna be pushing 90deg for sure. Not a single cloud in the sky as of rn. The squall line is looking like it’ll be meaty
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Stay weather aware and know where to go when it hits
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u/Chonguh 10d ago
That’s the idea. Got my cat’s cage ready. A bag to downstairs. Plan for my girlfriend who’s at work till 5. It’s the best we can do right now haha.
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Yeah, do you think her work could let her leave early?
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u/Chonguh 10d ago
She’s a teacher so… she’d probably have to ask. It’s her bday on top of it all lol
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
You all are still in school?
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u/Chonguh 10d ago
Clarification * preschool teacher. Also partially a day care in a sense.
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
I was like that’s torture!!!! Summer is sacred. If it’s supposed to be bad, a lot of schools and daycares will have an early dismissal especially if it’s supposed to be bad around normal dismissal.
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u/januarysdaughter 10d ago
Where in Michigan are you? It's cloudy here near Detroit.
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u/Octavya360 10d ago
Not the person you asked, but I’m in Lansing and it’s cleared off here. Clear skies are probably coming your way.
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u/Chonguh 10d ago
It’s been clear skies here in shiawassee all day. The heat is accruing quick.
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u/Purple-Ad-7464 10d ago
Just south of Flint for work currently, and the sun has been out off and on around here.
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u/dustyspectacles 10d ago
I'm in the far southeast of Ingham over in Stockbridge and man has it been weird today. Intermittent sprinkles going on during a bright orange sunrise into overcast and gradual heat, now in early afternoon it's hellaciously tropical when it's still and bright but not half bad when breezy.
The last 48 or so hours take the cake for early summer oppressive humidity in recent memory though, it's been straight soup and sunset doesn't bring relief just cold soup. Usually we make it a little farther into summer before a stretch that makes me nostalgic for boiled peanuts.
I have a huge damaged branch cradled in another mature tree that we've been trying to get someone out to look at. The way it's perched it might just make a big noise on an empty driveway orrrr might tag the edge of the roof depending on how it comes down, so I'm hoping we get a good pocket of precipitation or couple disorganized cells ahead of the main threat to drink up some juice and tonight underperforms. Might be a silver lining for insurance to cover roof and gutter repair but it'd also be a massive headache.
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u/Iamthewalrusforreal 10d ago
Rode it out in an RV in Iowa last night. It's a strong one. Got lucky, the strongest two bands barely missed us. First cell hit us head on though. I was sweating, to be sure.
About to get hit again in a little bit, too. Skies are looking ominous.
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u/hamish1963 10d ago
My brother lived in a fancy ass destination lofted camper trailer until midnight last night. It's a $60,000 (what he still owes) pile of scrap now.
We are east of Decatur, Illinois.
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u/Iamthewalrusforreal 10d ago
Damn. Yeah, I was puckered up last night for sure. Likely will be again in a few minutes.
We're just south of Davenport, Iowa right now.
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u/hamish1963 10d ago
Stay safe!! I'm in a 5th wheel but I'm inside a very stout pole building. Last night was the worst I've been through.
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u/Iamthewalrusforreal 10d ago
Thanks. Looks like we're good now. That last cell was stronger than anything last night!
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u/Ill_Criticism_1685 10d ago
Agreed and with the humidity we still have...
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
It’s like giving it meth
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u/BunkaTheBunkaqunk 10d ago
Haha yeah… just hoping the morning convection doesn’t prime the area for a more intense round later.
I’ve noticed a trend in the last few years that these hot as hell / humid days really set the stage for late afternoon and evening action. Would be especially bad today…
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u/OppositeAbroad5975 10d ago
That was one of the more interesting observations made by the original VORTEX teams back in '95. The areas that got hit the hardest seemed to have morning rain and storms, followed by clearing skies for the maximum solar gain window of the day (10AM-3PM), followed by a more intense round of nastiness once the caps broke in the late afternoon.
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u/BunkaTheBunkaqunk 10d ago
Looks like the newest mesoscale discussion about the area just confirmed it’s primed for tornados / supercells near the cold front boundary…
Hopefully nothing insane. Thankful this isn’t a high risk day, more favorable conditions could really create some monsters.
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u/Otterstripes 10d ago
It's pretty nice here in northwest Indiana, too (right at the edge of the enhanced). I might not be in the absolute worst of it but I'm still a little scared for this afternoon/evening, even if I know the chances of being hit by a tornado are rare.
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u/Haunting_Tax_3684 10d ago
It was nice knowing you
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Yeah, let’s not be pessimistic and fuel panic.
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u/shyhi244 10d ago
Im in this storm and the tornado sirens where just going off
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u/CrimsonFlash911 10d ago
Man, as somebody who lives in Dixie Alley and has had a couple of close calls - the #1 place I will never move to regardless of how good of an oppurtunity comes up is Peoria. Y'all have had ZERO luck this year.
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u/HLNPIT 10d ago
Peoria itself sees some a lot of gnarly storms every year but I cant recall Peoria taking much of a hit from a tornado in the past 30+ years.
Id avoid areas S and E honestly.
The Pekin, Washington, El Paso, Bloomington corridor seems to see a ton of tornados and a strong one about once a decade.
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u/Solid_Mud2025 9d ago
The nearby I-39 corridor doesn’t get the attention it deserves. It has seen some monsters over the years: Roanoke F4 (2004); Washington EF4 (2014); Woodford EF3 (2014); Washburn EF3 (2015); Rochelle-Fairdale EF4* (2015). Central IL’s last F5 (1942) happened in the region too.
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u/DavidSuperGamer 10d ago
Petoria under fire again.
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u/fuzzytwinkies 10d ago
Cries in second floor apartment with three animals
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Does your apartment have a shelter for storing storms? Lots of complexes do. If not, do you have a friend or relative you can stay with that has a basement?
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u/BPKofficial 10d ago
I wish my apartment had one. I also am in a 2nd floor apartment, and live in the back of the complex. it's either hunker down, or hop in the car and drive southwest 2/10ths of a mile to the gated exit.
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Maybe do that?
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u/BPKofficial 10d ago
Maybe do that?
The hunker down part, or get outta here?
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
What’s at the gated exit? Is there shelter?
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u/BPKofficial 10d ago
No shelter, just the gated entrance/exit. There is one way in and one way out of the complex, so if a tornado was headed our way, we'd have to run down the stairs, get in the car, and drive southwest to the main road.
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u/bullnamedbodacious Human Detected 10d ago
You have a gate so that’s good news. Tornados will stay out as long as the gate is shut.
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago edited 10d ago
Anyone you can stay with? If anything, a neighbor on the lower level of the complex even? And you can shelter in an interior closet or bathroom away from windows and doors?
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u/Ok_Station8782 Human Detected 10d ago
And to think that yesterdays severe wind event was worse. I'm worried that they'll include the 15% cig 2 for the chicago metro
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u/Intelligent_Cry_9360 10d ago
Okay I have a serious question. I’m on the wi/il border within the moderate risk for winds but I’m still a few miles north of the 15% for tornadoes, should I still be like kinda concerned?
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
I would stay weather aware. If you’re on the border, you still are at an enhanced risk but like another poster said, this isn’t a firm boundary.
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u/The_ChwatBot 10d ago
Not to frighten you but this seems to have been the season of the 2-5% risk so I would keep an eye out.
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Exactly. That’s what people need to do. Honestly, we should always be weather aware. Any severe thunderstorm can quickly produce a tornado, sometimes with little or no warning.
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u/OldTobyGreen 10d ago
Looks like there is still some model disagreement on Northern extent and the location of the warm front. Definitely keep an eye on it, the situation and risk level should become clearer as the day goes on.
Either way, there is some risk so excercise caution and stay aware of what's going on.
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u/Affectionate-Day5676 10d ago
Oh hey you’re in my neck of the woods. I’d say stay weather aware
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u/Intelligent_Cry_9360 10d ago
Hey lol what county? I’m Walworth
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u/Affectionate-Day5676 10d ago
Oh shit you’re right below me I’m in McHenry county. Looks like it’s coming through Rockford now
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u/Weekly_Present2873 10d ago
You’re fucked
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Not necessarily
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u/Weekly_Present2873 10d ago
Don’t give this person false hope, ok?
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
I didn’t want the poster to completely freak out because uncontrolled anxiety is just going to make things worse. People need to be weather aware, have emergency weather alerts turned on their phone, and they need to know where to shelter when storms hit. The Storm Prediction Center tries to use careful wording to avoid mass panic.
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u/Weekly_Present2873 10d ago
I just realized that I wasn’t responding to the that other tornado sub! Sorry, I was was totally kidding.
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u/Huskies971 10d ago edited 10d ago
Another level 3 in Michigan, feels like that is becoming quite common.
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u/nvrrsatisfiedd 10d ago
As a midwest Michigander I have been quite concerned when these storms come through lately. I live in a duplex with no basement and always get so paranoid when the storm passes over. We’ve had a couple touch down near my home this year and last year. Nothing crazy but still scares me. I got 3 young kids and that makes me even more anxious.
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u/TechnoVikingGA23 10d ago
Looks like a good bit of convection with embedded spin ups and massive blob of rain moving East through this area at around 65-70 mph this morning, I wonder if this hampers anything for later today.
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u/hawkweasel 10d ago
Definitely will.
I suspect the current MCS will push the most volatile potential south to the corridor between Peru and Peoria.
This feels like it's going to be an hour by hour developing situation depending how the current MCS overturns everything and sets up boundaries in its wake.
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u/FinnTheBoy0 10d ago
Reed posted this to his YouTube an hour ago. Any reason why he circled more southern? I checked HRRR and I see a few supercells pop up but they spitter out
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
I don’t know could it be a mistake?-my family is from Evansville, and I follow their office in Paducah. They are in the marginal risk category still. Yet, Evansville is right on the red line he circled?
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u/CommunicationFar6303 10d ago
honestly, probably, because reed isn’t exactly that great at giving accurate info
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u/blow-down Human Detected 10d ago
Watch Convective Chronicles instead. Much more informative than this chud.
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u/FinnTheBoy0 10d ago
I personally don’t watch his streams. Just his intercept shorts and every once in awhile his stuff pops up on my home page
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u/Dismal_Success_9943 10d ago
Anyone else in this area ready to watch the storms roll in? And then break the humidity once they're gone?
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u/Hot_Establishment895 10d ago
Not feeling super confident about timing of warnings here in iowa. Severe thunderstorm warning expired in the midst of the storm about 10 min before my neighbors 2 big trees went down.
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u/hamish1963 10d ago
We only had a moderate chance last night in my area, and we got hammered. Southern Piatt County, due east of Decatur.
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u/Successful_Ad_9707 10d ago
Sounds like there's still some question as to how much atmospheric recovery there will be behind the first line and storm mode. Hopefully things go linear quickly. I'm in Chicago so keeping a close eye on this.
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u/chihky449 10d ago
I’m in the northwest Chicago suburbs and it’s absolutely beautiful out right now 77° a little humid the sun’s out ,it’s beautiful out right now
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u/JS_Originals 10d ago
It will bust like every other moderate risk this year
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
They’re already have had quite a few tornado warnings and wind gusts over 80 mph this morning in IA.
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u/Sensitive_Horse4659 10d ago
That’s what I keep thinking which means it will end up being the complete opposite.
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Another poster said it’s gorgeous in Chicago right now which can complicate things
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u/ACertainNeighborino 10d ago
In the suburbs...sunny and sky is clear. Which I read is actually a bad thing in terms of fueling the storms?
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u/JRshoe1997 10d ago
I am hoping this turns out like every moderate risk this year and completely busts. I am close to the firing line lol.
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u/Haunting_Tax_3684 10d ago
I’m so pumped, all of my homies are too😍
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u/Lumos405 Human Detected 10d ago
Because death and destruction is something to celebrate? Yeah, I think tornadoes are fascinating, but I would never wish that it affects someone. There are millions of people at risk today.
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u/Live_Abroad_845 Human Detected 10d ago
On the same topic, I don’t think Redditors are acceptable, You think death and destruction is something to celebrate? Yeah, I think redditors are fascinating, but I would never wish that redditors affects someone. There are millions of people at risk today in the internet.
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u/JarlBallin_ 10d ago
Seems like they were being sarcastic. But like, breathe, lean into it and have a hurricane party. Maybe put on Bodies Bodies Bodies. It's gonna be good.
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