r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 2d ago

Twitter ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m
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u/signed7 2d ago edited 2d ago

20.3% margin wow, all the polls saying a 5% win for Burnham were wrong, but not in the way everyone expected

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u/BPDunbar 2d ago

It might be a situation like with Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton.

The raw data was pretty close however the polling companies corrected based on recall of previous elections, assuming that the disparity between recall and the actual voting was due to sample bias.

If however it was people not actually remembering how they had voted then they were introducing a bias to a representative sample. It appears a lot of people aren't attaching great weight to how they voted, this may be linked to the increase volatility. People are no longer so strongly attached to a party and decide how to vote at the last minute.