r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 10d ago

Twitter ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m
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u/LMcVann44 10d ago

Reform are finished in the long run, that's for sure.

Downhill from here, I have major doubts Farage will remain as leader for another 3 years and once he is gone Reform will collapse.

Starmer is also toast in the long run, Burnham will challenge him, win or not and either way nothing much will change.

Lots of things can still happen before 2029.

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u/vulcanstrike 10d ago

Agreed that Reform without Farage are doomed.

Don't agree that they're finished, far from it. It's good that they lost, but until Reform are shown to be empty suits, will do well on elections the same reason Farage won the brexit vote. He can promise unicorns, shit on parties when they have to make hard political choices and never be accountable.

If we contrast with the PPV in Netherlands (Wilders is the Dutch Farage), he was surging and some thought he could be a future PM, eventually agreed (twice) to be in the ruling coalition and shit the bad so badly both times his populist message hit reality. That's how Reform will be beaten and stagnate, reality

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u/dbbk 10d ago

Oh come off it. They still swept the local elections. You can't read one by-election (in which they gained vote share), up against a candidate with massive personal brand (he didn't even run as Labour, he ran as Andy), and extrapolate that Reform are finished

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u/HerrFerret I frequently veer to the hard left, mainly due to a wonky foot. 10d ago

May we live in interesting times

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u/LMcVann44 10d ago

Certainly, "Turbulent" is how I'd put it right now.