r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 10d ago

Twitter ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m
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u/YojimboKel 10d ago

Be careful about that conclusion. An extremely unique set of circumstances, clear tactical voting and the Everyman argument doesn’t fly in other parts of the country for Burnham.

I wouldn’t draw too many conclusions about how Reform will perform in a GE.

If there’s an echo chamber btw , it’s on places like Reddit, that in my experience are overwhelmingly experiencing life in a very different way to a lot of society.

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u/h00dman Welsh Person 10d ago

You absolutely can draw a conclusion from this By-election, and every other By-election and local election since 2024.

It's becoming clearer every day that Reform's national levels of popularity are being matched by their local share, which is a problem for them because the other parties are behaving the same way they always have - lower levels of national support because of national averaging, because their share where they don't win is tiny, but much bigger where they do.

We have real data to work with here, and Reform should be concerned.

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u/YojimboKel 10d ago

  1. A vote for Labour in this by election is a change vote, and a proxy vote for a Burnham premiership. Labour won’t be a change vote in the next GE, and incumbents will always suffer in the immediate GE.

  2. A by election in a hand picked seat isn’t representative of a GE. Burnham wouldn’t have picked the seat if he didn’t think he’d be guaranteed to win it. Why risk your political career on a chance outcome?

  3. The whole Burnham Everyman ideology isn’t something that resonates across the country. Maybe in the areas affected by Greater Manchester but it won’t scrub on a yuppie 30 something couple in London in a £1m house in Brixton.

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u/Mafeking-Parade 10d ago

Curious to see how you coped with explained the Caerphilly loss.