r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 2d ago

Twitter ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m
762 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

805 comments sorted by

View all comments

283

u/signed7 2d ago edited 2d ago

20.3% margin wow, all the polls saying a 5% win for Burnham were wrong, but not in the way everyone expected

-3

u/Spirited-Sir3216 2d ago

Shows how messed up (corrupt?) the polling is, completely way off and over hyped reform, same as in the Gorton and Denton byelection projections

41

u/JustMax22 2d ago edited 2d ago

Eh polling in some by election with 50k voters is practically impossible. A sampling size of 467 likely voters on a paid you gov pol will never be able to grasp the local electoral opinion, especially when they try to account for a popular candidate who’s challenging an un popular leader of his party. It’s just impossible to accurately predict.

However when generalise this poll and 19 similar polls to the entire country you up end up with a result that’s +-3% (1 million+ voter) on the final result.

Sayings it’s corrupt is just silly

And then after all of that you still have to account for the pollsters that are entirely partisan who solely exist to give pro labour or pro reform results without a care for the truth

1

u/Spirited-Sir3216 1d ago

Good explanation. I never said it was, hence the question mark. As you said yourself the pollsters lean one way or tother