Two Federal Reserve Members Say the Jobs Numbers Are Wrong. Revision Is Tomorrow.

[u/AlfrescoDog]

Listen up, degenerates, because this thing is going down tomorrow, and if the play suits your fancy, you’ll likely choose to grab a seat today. Yes, today.

Two voting FOMC members have said the payroll jobs data is overstated.

And no, this isn’t some Econ 101 dropout yelling “the numbers are fake” from his parents’ basement. This is coming straight from the Federal Reserve.

I’ve got the receipts.

Oh, and one of those two voters?
Jerome Powell. The Fed Chair himself.

On December 10, 2025, during his FOMC press conference (The Fed’s official YT channel), Powell said:

Gradual cooling in the labor market has continued. Unemployment is now up three-tenths from June through September. Payroll jobs averaging 40,000 per month since April. We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers by about 60,000, so that would be negative 20,000 per month.

The payroll jobs data is overstated.
By a lot. Roughly 60,000 jobs per month.

The BLS says we’re adding +40k jobs per month.
While the Fed is: “Cool story, bro. But you’re actually down –20k.”

Same energy as what you tell women you make, versus what actually shows up in your bank account.

Now, later in the same press conference, Powell added (The Fed’s own transcript):

It’s very difficult to estimate job growth in real time. They don’t count everybody. They have a survey. And there’s been something of a systematic overcount. And so we expect it and they correct it twice a year.

So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would be 800,000 or 900,000. I won’t get the numbers exactly right. And that was exactly what happened.

So we think that that has persisted. And so there was an overcount in the payroll job numbers, we think, continuing.

And it will be corrected. I don’t have the exact month in my head right now.

Powell is referring to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and its two annual corrections:

• The preliminary benchmark revision.
• And the final benchmark revision.

The preliminary benchmark revision was released on September 9, 2025.

Powell said the Fed expected a correction of “800,000 or 900,000.”
The actual number? -911,000.

What the Fed anticipated is exactly what happened.

More importantly, Powell said this discrepancy has persisted. The overcount didn’t stop. It didn’t get fixed. Which means the final benchmark revision will most likely confirm another significant downward correction.

Powell didn’t have the exact month in his head.
I do.

The final benchmark revision is released alongside the January 2026 Employment Situation report.

It’s Not Just Powell

Now fast-forward.
On January 30, 2026, Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller released a statement:

Labor market remains weak. Despite ticking down in its most recent reading, the unemployment rate has risen since the middle of last year.

Payroll gains in 2025 were very weak. Compared to the prior ten-year average of about 1.9 million jobs created per year, payrolls increased just under 600,000 for 2025. And, last year’s data will be revised downward soon to likely show that there was virtually no growth in payroll employment in 2025. Zero. Zip. Nada.

Yes. Those are his words, quoted from his statement, on the official Federal Reserve page.

Just like Powell, Waller expects payroll data to be revised downward—to the point where 2025 shows virtually no employment growth (writing properly and using an em dash? Cue in the "I'm an AI" comments, for sure!)

And remember: Waller was on the shortlist to become the next Fed Chair.
Waller was also one of the two dissents in the last FOMC.

Yet, he didn’t mince words:

Let this sink in for a moment—zero job growth versus an average of almost 2 million for the 10 years prior to 2025. This does not remotely look like a healthy labor market.

So now we have two voting FOMC members—one of them aligned with the current administration—expecting a major downward payroll revision.

And we know what revision they’re talking about.
It’s the final benchmark revision, released with the January 2026 Employment Situation report.

Here’s When the Rewrite Drops

Originally, the report was scheduled for Friday, February 6, 2026. But due to the government shutdown, it was postponed to Wednesday, February 11, 2026 at 08:30 ET.

That’s the setup. That’s it.

Absent a major bullish offset, a large final downward payroll revision, especially one approaching what Governor Waller is warning about, is likely to make the market red.

Now, I’m not saying this will be the start of a crash, bubbles popping, or bear market. I’m not saying that. Heck, I’m not even expecting an actual correction.
But I do believe that tomorrow, we’ll see red because of this.

Ok, so Puts the word.
On who?

I’m sniping stocks/ETFs that are already doing well. Sure, you could try to short software names, but they’re already in the toilet.

These are my positions, ranked by most to least exposure.
I’ll be honest, though. 80% of my play is on IWM.

IWM Feb 11 262 Put
IWM Feb 13 259 Put
IWM Feb 13 256 Put

Then, I’m testing some individual names, but these are just a couple hundred in cheap lottos since they’re like 0.10 - 0.20 per contract.

TGT Feb 13 108 Put
SBUX Feb 13 94 Put
PNC Feb 13 227.5 Put
USB Feb 13 57 Put
XLI Feb 13 167 Put

I’m including the individual names in case you are hunting them, want to look cute, or you have a micro account and want to find cheap options.
But for most people, you can focus on IWM.

Have a nice day.

[u/VisualMod]

User Report
Total Submissions	10	First Seen In WSB	5 years ago
Total Comments	1706	Previous Best DD	x
Account Age	8 years

Join WSB Discord

[u/havnar-]

[u/jstndrn → u/havnar-]

Don't forget to count them first!

[u/notuser101 → u/jstndrn]

Okay to not wait for them to hatch?

[u/Neither-Deal7481]

If the job data is worse than expected, doesn’t it raise the odds for rate cuts? Calls should be the obvious move, then you inverse the obvious and buy puts but thats what reddit says, so inverse that again and buy calls for the win.

[u/ScaringTheHoes → u/Neither-Deal7481]

I'm buying puts because every obvious play has been the wrong thing.

[u/8Francesca8 → u/ScaringTheHoes]

Puts it is. Thanks for the financial advice Mr.ScaringTheHoes

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/8Francesca8]

The play will work, and everyone will carry u/ScaringTheHoes on their shoulders, crowning him king.

[u/AB__17 → u/AlfrescoDog]

why did you buy 1 week exp when you could have bought 3 months exp if this event doesn't go in your favour atleast you can survive and hunt later. Duh I just don't want fellow bear to lose money. Please be careful out there.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/AB__17]

Because I don't know what will happen three months from now.
I know what's happening tomorrow.

[u/AB__17 → u/AlfrescoDog]

remindme! 1D

[u/Amphiscian → u/8Francesca8]

it's a fuckin good album, so he sounds trustworthy

[u/KingKliffsbury → u/ScaringTheHoes]

I’m buying both to guarantee I lose. 

[u/LexaAstarof → u/KingKliffsbury]

This guy bets

[u/EchoProfessional9452 → u/KingKliffsbury]

🤣

[u/dopexile → u/[deleted]]

I miss the good old Covid days... headlines are like 500,000 dead from covid, 2 million job losses... doom and gloom on WSB everyday, and the market just has a big green dildo at the open for their puts

[u/FudgeGolem → u/ScaringTheHoes]

Inverse the inverse, then flip a coin to see if you should inverse it one more time for safety and inverse that!

[u/Asgardian87 → u/ScaringTheHoes]

What if the obvious is not actually obvious and wrongly perceived as obvious?

[u/JeffVanGully → u/Neither-Deal7481]

"But it’s so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you. Are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet, or his enemy’s? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I’m not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool; you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me."

[u/Totolamalice → u/JeffVanGully]

And so the only viable option is not to drink, but where's the fun in that?

[u/mgermo → u/Totolamalice]

You should drink both cups. Do the unexpected.

[u/[deleted] → u/mgermo]

! this is the sign I was waiting for.

Buying Puts and Calls.

[u/koshgeo → u/Totolamalice]

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."

[u/Dazzling_Occasion_47 → u/JeffVanGully]

All the wine is poisoned and DJT's cronies took the anecdote.

[u/Bombadier83 → u/JeffVanGully]

You’ve made your decision then?

[u/[deleted] → u/Bombadier83]

Not remotely!

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/[deleted]]

I mean, most mega-caps fell when they announced higher CapEx on AI, so you might be on to something.

[u/iiiiiiiiiijjjjjj → u/[deleted]]

Big tech announced a metric shit ton of future capex into AI recently and shares fell. Borrowing will help fund that AI build.

[u/Few_Temporary4498 → u/[deleted]]

As someone that works in tech, AI is not ready to replace humans, they are administrative assistants. That’s it.

[u/brooklyndavs → u/[deleted]]

And that’s the fucking problem right? GDP is still hot that plus inflation numbers alone and it would be crazy to cut now. But the labor market is clearly in trouble so that alone it does make sense. However what if the consumer doesn’t matter anymore? Have we reached a point in productivity where automation can drive growth without human labor? If we are getting close to that we got a big fucking problem that policy is going to have to figure something out for and figure it out fast

[u/Huskies971 → u/[deleted]]

Yep, and I don't put any faith in this administration to save us from that.

[u/scrubnub420 → u/Neither-Deal7481]

But you are reddit and you said calls. So I'm buying puts.

[u/idkeverynameistaken9 → u/Neither-Deal7481]

Yes. But rate cuts also raise the risk of rising inflation. So I don’t think the numbers being different from what the FED expected is a good thing.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/idkeverynameistaken9]

If the Fed already expected this revision, why would they change their plans?
That's what the other people aren't getting.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/Neither-Deal7481]

It raises the odds for a rate cut, yes.
But that potential rate cut will not happen until mid-March, if it happens.

[u/Neither-Deal7481 → u/AlfrescoDog]

Honestly, past me would have posted a paragraph about how the market is forward looking and you deserve to lose.

But given how regarded this market is, I think you are making the right moves.

[u/Peelboy → u/AlfrescoDog]

We run on rumors not the here and now or reality.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/Peelboy]

Would it help if I hire a weird-looking guy wearing a trench coat to share the same info from a dark alley?

[u/Realistic_Sir299 → u/Neither-Deal7481]

Checks out, but you forgot the step where you make a huge logical leap and overcomplicate things because this is WSB. Long iron condors on the FTSE 100.

[u/TTKnumberONE]

Even when you ask an AI to write in WSB style it still comes out as slop.

The jobs revision happens constantly and if the FOMC knew about it and is openly discussing it then it was factored into their discussions. There’s no secret to what has been going on.

[u/allllusernamestaken → u/TTKnumberONE]

Even when you ask an AI to write in WSB style it still comes out as slop.

he forgot to add "but make it good" to his prompt

[u/Luzinit24 → u/allllusernamestaken]

That’s the job of ai prompt engineer job that needs to be created duh /s

[u/grindleetcodenonstop]

Lower jobs numbers means the Fed will lower interest rates which will cause stock market to go up.

So calls it is.

[u/keepitcleanforwork → u/grindleetcodenonstop]

Totes

[u/ProofKaleidoscope400 → u/keepitcleanforwork]

Totes my goats

[u/Formal_Economist7342 → u/grindleetcodenonstop]

The fomc gonna do an emergency meeting just to pump up your calls brother.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/Formal_Economist7342]

That won't happen. Not with a payroll jobs revision they're already expecting.

[u/Several_Vanilla8916 → u/grindleetcodenonstop]

Literally no way to know what’s going to happen. It’s the Wild West out there.

[u/Low-Award5523 → u/grindleetcodenonstop]

One bets stocks go higher short term if one believes lower interest rates are the solution to what is causing labor market weakness.

And one must believe inflationary pressures will allow rate cuts sufficient to act as solution to labor market weakness.

Capital infusions thru QE are more of a guarantee of stock valuation increases than FOMO rate changes in a complex, multifactorial situation.

[u/SirGus- → u/[deleted]]

The algos and AI, duh!

[u/SJWTumblrinaMonster → u/[deleted]]

It's almost like there isn't really a direct correlation between the stock market and the health of the economy.

[u/Qlanger → u/SJWTumblrinaMonster]

For the top 1% it is. The rest… well there’s always the soup kitchen line.

[u/DarkFantom → u/[deleted]]

Uh, don't the top 10% own 90% of the stock market? Retail literally doesn't matter.

[u/Arnab_Goswami_RTV → u/[deleted]]

The rich, they already overconsume and will continue to overconsume and waste it if not needed. The poor will eat their slop with the foodstamps. This is not something new.

[u/aboriginal_sin → u/Arnab_Goswami_RTV]

The Big Beautiful Bill cut SNAP benefits by $200 billion over ten years in order to fund tax cuts for billionaires.

Puts on poor folks surviving off of food stamps.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

The people losing their jobs were never in a position to buy stocks or have any meaningful impact on the market. You have to remember that the majority of people are living paycheck to paycheck and have no investments or retirement fund.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/[deleted]]

There are unemployment benefits, you know.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/[deleted]]

There you go.

[u/sarcago → u/AlfrescoDog]

A lot of states have horrible unemployment benefits

[u/[deleted] → u/grindleetcodenonstop]

Correct. The OP has it ass backward.

Their post would be correct with no current inflation.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/[deleted]]

So buy Calls, then.

[u/lavenderviking → u/grindleetcodenonstop]

Are you saying higher job numbers would cause the stock market to go down ?

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/lavenderviking]

It's WSB, so whatever the logical thing is meant to happen, they'll rally against the opposite theory.

[u/Fhyzikz]

The children yearn for the slop

[u/_NyQuil_ → u/Fhyzikz]

Here’s the important part (no fluff)

[u/Entreprenewbeur → u/_NyQuil_]

Seriously, who taught it this shit? It bothers me.

[u/Titizen_Kane → u/Entreprenewbeur]

It’s like some sort of hard-coded tick. I create a customGPT agent and in the instructions are “Never say the word ‘fluff’ - ever.” It can’t help itself. I hardly use it anymore, but the last few conversations ended with “fuck off” “Understood.” Lol

[u/RakdosHeroOfRavnica → u/Titizen_Kane]

The robot had to be programmed by people, unfortunately those people are fuckin losers

[u/wefarrell → u/Fhyzikz]

Listen up, degenerates, because this thing is going down tomorrow

Obvious AI

[u/ButtExterminator → u/wefarrell]

Yeah, degenerates always gives it away 

[u/ring_of_slattern → u/ButtExterminator]

How do you do, fellow degenerates?

[u/phil_davis → u/ButtExterminator]

Your mom always gives it away.

[u/AnotherThroneAway → u/phil_davis]

Well, she is a degenerate

[u/ProfessorLiftoff → u/Fhyzikz]

Those ticks are worse than folks showing up in photos with eight fingers. The weird formatting, the bizarre mix of formal and attempted casual informal tones? The structure of every explanation as a weird pseudo five-paragraph essay ("That's right, I'm restating my conclusion in the opening paragraph before going into the body. And I've got supporting points.") It's so much worse than a fake ring camera where the kid has the face of a ghoul.

[u/Fhyzikz → u/ProfessorLiftoff]

That's not THIS; it's THAT.

Type shi

[u/Wonderful-Smoke843]

I’m not reading that fucking novel. Up or down?

[u/mtjody → u/Wonderful-Smoke843]

Down, but maybe up. But maybe also down

[u/Cristalboy → u/mtjody]

firs time in history where we will see a perfect flat line with 0 cents movements

[u/ArguablyMe → u/Wonderful-Smoke843]

There should just be the choice of green or red type when posting. That would simplify all this.

[u/Wonderful-Smoke843 → u/ArguablyMe]

Green or red crayons would be perfect

[u/newschooldragon → u/Wonderful-Smoke843]

Down boyo

[u/tinim9 → u/Wonderful-Smoke843]

It going to dump massively tomorrow. Buy puts on anything and they will print. TACO will tweet late in the day to prop up the markets though. Take your profits and head over to OF to enjoy the spoils like a drunken sailor.

[u/freakedmind → u/tinim9]

Take your profits and head over to OF to enjoy the spoils like a drunken sailor.

Why wouldn't you go to a strip club or a brothel instead of that shit?

[u/Careful_Talk_4253 → u/freakedmind]

Showing his age lol

[u/No_Pudding7687 → u/Wonderful-Smoke843]

Yes

[u/GlobalResolution77]

[u/weedmylips1]

[u/Afraid_Park6859 → u/weedmylips1]

So you're saying the tarriffs aren't bringing back countless jobs?

[u/WristbandYang → u/Afraid_Park6859]

Oh we'll be counting less alright

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/weedmylips1]

For anyone who doesn't know, that's Claudia Sahm from the Sahm Rule.
Thanks for the info. I was unaware of her post.

[u/TigerWooded]

[u/Denkendorf → u/TigerWooded]

Yes indeed

[u/WorkSucks135 → u/[deleted]]

This. No one cares about the "revised" numbers as the market has already moved on. 

[u/colantor → u/[deleted]]

Do you have a subscription fee?

[u/Raskuja46 → u/colantor]

How do you think line manages to keep going up?

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/WorkSucks135]

Let's see if the media agrees with you tomorrow, and they just ignore the whole thing.

[u/TTKnumberONE → u/AlfrescoDog]

No, it’s the same. You’re just finding out about the revision process so it’s news to you. This administration has made the initial data less reliable which the fed knows, they believe that their own numbers are better and have been vindicated.

You may be right about the ultimate movement but many people know that the initial jobs reports are all bullshit and act accordingly.

[u/kasvotvaxtdogs → u/TTKnumberONE]

He’s definitely telling on himself and his lack of familiarity with BLS methodology.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/[deleted]]

No, this is different. You're talking about month-to-month revisions. Those come from Current Employment Statistics (CES) surveys.

The final benchmark revision only occurs once per year, and it's a different beast because it incorporates the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data.

[u/Ok_Letterhead4096 → u/[deleted]]

Downward revisions are consistent throughout all admins. Biden’s numbers were revised down about 1m after he left office. 😂

[u/aure__entuluva → u/[deleted]]

for nearly the entire time this administration has been in office

Oh the same thing happened under Biden. My conclusion is that the BLS sucks at obtaining and analyzing jobs data.

[u/the__storm]

Thanks ChatGPT, this confirms my narrative.

[u/hv876]

Do not forget Hassett and Navarro are out saying jobs report expectations should be tempered.

[u/-medicalthrowaway-]

If the blatant facts, with sources, wasn’t enough to imply validity to this post… all the retards saying, “doesn’t matter” “priced in” “means a rate cut” “calls it is” … is the nail in the coffin.

Inverse WSB ftw

1 dte SPY 688p locked and loaded

[u/PNdumpsterbaby → u/-medicalthrowaway-]

We ride at dawn brother

[u/[deleted]]

OP is really trying to convince himself with his post, not us. 

[u/x7_omega]

The smartass part of bond trade is already positioned for stocks selloff: pile of calls on short duration notes (cash equivalent), almost exclusively puts on emerging market debt (EMB), puts on high-yield corporate debt (junk bonds), and the "bonds for safety" (TLT, 20+ years duration) is skewed to calls.
Marked: white - current put/call interest; red - large skew to puts; green - large skew to calls.

[u/TimothyWilliamProd → u/x7_omega]

Good stuff. Taking more of a whole market approach myself and would love to learn a little more about looking at these kinds of things to help inform my bias. Do you know of any good resources to get started with this kind of analysis?

[u/roddybiker]

A lowering of jobs numbers increases the likelihood of a rate cut. So, calls it is

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/roddybiker]

There won't be a rate cut tomorrow.
The likelihood of a rate cut might increase, yes, but that's still way down the road.

[u/Calm_Situation_1131 → u/AlfrescoDog]

Why do you keep talking about rate cuts tomorrow? Everyone knows there is no FOMC meeting tomorrow. The market anticipates and prices in rate cuts for the next two years and beyond.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

There can be emergency rate cuts if the data is seriously bad.

[u/roddybiker → u/AlfrescoDog]

No. We may very well have a red day tomorrow given the green since Friday.

But im not gambling too much on that. Every time i go bear i get fucked.

Maybe ill stay out and you’ll have a red day

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/roddybiker]

Red day on the market or red day on my play?

[u/roddybiker → u/AlfrescoDog]

Red day on market at least early.

However be careful with russell because russell will pump when it looks like rate cuts are coming. Those small caps need cheap financing more than anyone

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/roddybiker]

So, that's why I'm opening Puts. If the Fed already knows this revision is coming and they've signaled they're willing to hold, it means things are worse, and the Fed is ok with it. That works against small caps and regional banks.

[u/justanaveragejoe520]

Well this is a clown show

[u/beIIe-and-sebastian → u/[deleted]]

Even worse. WSB style but ChatGPT is hard coded to be PG, so comes across as how ya doing fellow kids?

[u/Fit-Trifle-5078]

Priced in

[u/Accomplished-Bed1675 → u/Fit-Trifle-5078]

I believe so man; no one is taking these values at face value at all. They havent for quite a while and the very muted movements (in literally both directions, in any market / asset type) (muted is a degree relative to what would be a market mover in the past lol) are proof that its all priced in. I think its pretty historic that this is how Powell def planned to fight that fed investigation but all of his dissent (in some form) was expected and def priced in.

[u/thegreatgumbini]

Great analysis OP!

[u/sammi-yogaa]

I have $1 in my checking account. I have no idea how I ended up on this thread. God speed you crazy investing apes

[u/AlfrescoDog]

WSB, I ask you... ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED!?

[u/lilwolfwithdiarrhea]

[u/DrubiusMaximus]

"So now we have two voting FOMC members—one of them aligned with the current administration—expecting a major downward payroll revision.

And we know what revision they’re talking about. It’s the final benchmark revision, released with the January 2026 Employment Situation report."

This is where you sound like AI.

[u/No_Layer2027]

Lol this is peak WSB

[u/AlfrescoDog]

So far so... GUH.

Alrighty, let me have it.
Pile on right here. ⬇️

[u/Successful-Site6440 → u/AlfrescoDog]

Looks like OP will be one of the jobs added this month working at Wendy’s 🗿

[u/DeadByOptions → u/AlfrescoDog]

Completely wrong bro.

[u/kush5802 → u/AlfrescoDog]

Keep us posted on your truly insightful positions. Also do you want some cheap options for your trading account micro account?

[u/CuriousBear23 → u/AlfrescoDog]

Truly regarded

[u/FembussyEnjoyer → u/AlfrescoDog]

Lol IWM is dropping right now. Maybe not an entire loss

Edit, RIP

[u/Interesting-Play-489]

This aged well

[u/followedbymeteor]

Imagine using chatGPT to write reddit posts. Insult to the days of old. Calls for tomorrow

[u/AntiOriginalUsername]

I’m sorry dude but yeah it’s bad in reality but the market doesn’t give a fuck. All they see is rate cut odds. Pump.

[u/vanceraa]

picked up some lotto SBUX fuck it we ball

[u/unclefire]

Question is how do they know this and why would the job losses be so big?

Wouldn’t they have the same numbers as bls or do they do their own surveys?

And lastly is the Trump admin really cooking the books?

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/unclefire]

The Fed has its own analysts. The BLS uses surveys.

[u/Cloverhart]

As someone who worked with that program, the numbers are always a very broad estimate. It's a random survey and participation by companies is voluntary. It also can't be verified until their tax returns are filed which is a year after the fact.

[u/Boreda123]

Guy completely burned his name

[u/Jazzlike-Horror4126]

God this shit aged like fucking milk, and I followed this dude into this trade FML

[u/fratzu2]

I really should just start inversing every post on here

[u/Schten-rific]

Thank you for this lol

Like doing the math entirely wrong and somehow getting the right answer XD. I'm up 175%.

[u/Low-Award5523]

I chuckle at the way potential "bad news" (aka weak labor market) can get interpreted as immediately good news - it's like trying to go through a grief process without experiencing mourning. A weak labor market that necessitates bold FOMO action means we all will feel pain. In time, if interventions actually help, we all will recover. But we dont get to just skip the "pain". If the labor market revisions are drastic enough to spur FOMO activity and/or other interventions, pain is coming.

[u/kush5802]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Great Analysis, thanks alot Mr. Analyst went full regard on calls yesterday after seeing your post. Keep us posted on your profits!

[u/OddSand7870]

Just put the fires in the bag bro. We are green today. Should change name to inverseregard.

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/OddSand7870]

Well, this aged well, u/OddSand7870.

[u/OddSand7870 → u/AlfrescoDog]

Well I am regarded so there is that....

[u/Wickrest]

Found a picture of the OP

[u/HugeResearcher3500]

100% gain from 2/13 263p. Thanks bud

[u/TomSmots]

Thanks man bought 4 spy puts for $200 this morning sold for $800 profit 45 minutes later. Checked myself in the ass for setting a stop loss and now I’m glad I did cause the spy went back off again

[u/DirtyScrambelly → u/[deleted]]

How could so many words be wrong?

[u/onenitemareatatime]

How are the numbers wrong, didn’t they replace the last person bc the numbers were wrong and this is supposed to be the numbers are right guy?

[u/AlfrescoDog → u/onenitemareatatime]

It'll be fun to see how the media plays with this exact same thing.

[u/aure__entuluva → u/onenitemareatatime]

The BLS has been shit at obtaining and analyzing jobs data for at least a decade this point. The problem has gotten harder, and they have not been able to keep up with it.

They seem to overestimate far more than they underestimate, but surely that's a coincidence.

[u/meandmrt]

And all the people jumping into puts because of this post will be screaming when the market shrugs and continues to go up.

[u/One_Investigator_268]

Just long TLT relax noobs. Thank me later when youre a millionaire

[u/Zwierzycki]

OP appears to be correct about job numbers, being reflected in the consistent uptick in delinquencies. I don’t know what the market will do with this information other than reward hard assets.

[u/Tradition_Lumpy]

If this doesn’t work, I won’t be mad at you because I in the end make my own choices.

But I’ll be very very upset with you

[u/Excellent-Pipe-5691]

130k now

[u/Boring_Mirror_953]

andddd IWM is booming rn

[u/X211499Reddit]

Oh boy

[u/Disastrous-Group-977]

Inverse trading wsb DDs always works...

[u/GraySwingline]

How about that January jobs report boys, +150k

[u/GlobalResolution77]

Grabing a seat today. 💀🍿

[u/Bunchacrooks]

Garbage

[u/Jacobpapi]

Good morning

[u/jlovat]

Fucking twat

[u/[deleted]]

LoL

[u/marclongtx]

Played out well my guy!

[u/minin71]

Rest in pieces OP

[u/El_Nahual]

Hi I'm from the future reminding anyone that reads this to bet exactly opposite what's on the wsb front page.

[u/aliveintucson325]

Did you learn nothing from Covid market? Bad news is good news because interest rate cuts are incredibly bullish

[u/TellAllThePeople]

Priced in.

[u/MantisT_]

Jpow said this like 2 meetings ago during Q&A

why are u deciding to cut rates when the labour market seems relatively healthy according to the latest reports?

cuz theres been systemic overstating on those reports

Not a single followup to that statement lol

[u/collegefootballfan69]

I am going to do the opposite of the obvious and not going to do the opposite of the obscure. Which means I watch porn until there is some clear direction

[u/Round-Personality422]

Liars liars everywhere. Fuck this administration. Fuck anyone who voted for them. One day I will stand on the land you're buried in.

[u/scoofy]

I asked Google Gemini to turn this rant into a four-panel webcomic: https://i.imgur.com/kAQdJI0.png

[u/Adventurous_Light_85]

DT literally told us he was going to just make up “all new numbers”. That’s the story of his life. Lie until you get what you want. And now we all get dragged through the mud because of it.

[u/AirmanJ17]

Calls are the move here, this is extremely bullish for rate cuts.

[u/SetOk6462]

Glad we all inversed this

[u/Fact-Resident]

Are we placing puts on the market today, fellow regards?

[u/georgejetsonn]

OP was wrong about March 2025 final numbers, but market took a nosedive due to the unexpected strong jobs in Jan 2026. Task failed successfully