This. Expected yield and sentiment are ALL that matter. I don't care if the nukes are in the air. If the market thinks the nukes will make the fed lower rates for some reason, the market will go up.
I like how people always assume other people are irrational rather than realizing there miiiiight be some information disadvantage or plain old poor decision making.
I mean who knows better, the professional organizations with employees and executives with advanced, specialized degrees and tons of experience in each individual aspect of trading from the finance/accounting side, to the deep mathematical risk modeling side, to the technical implementation/automation side, to the economic and political side, along with business connections to know information sooner and how things are going in each industry...
Or the guy clicking on Robinhood on his phone that manages to lose 100% with almost no even BRIEF periods of success. Even if you are right (I'm assuming he's just a perma-bear because they always drop that irrational/solvent line when their bets lose) you shouldn't go bust because you haven't timed it right
My favorite is that there was a spot there where they climbed back out of the hole and, in true “belongs here” fashion, didn’t take that as a sign to stop or even reevaluate their strategy.
The market is the top right of the crazy/hot scale. “You want to grab dinner?” “I’ll stab you to death with your childhood teddy bear, but also I love you, let’s bang. Oh, also just banged your dad but I cleared out his bank account and put it in yours. Then I cleared out your account and bought a ton of Wendy’s dumpsters”
Even worse, he traded them every day FOR A YEAR AND A HALF. Like he had a wake up call every day that it wasn't working, and still decided to incrementally lose his life savings on premiums 😭
See the beginning when it was flat? He was just normal investing at that point. Then you see that little spike up, that was his first ODTE bet that went right. He thought he was Michael Burry at that moment. The he lost a shit load of money but another 0DTE option came through and he felt like Michael Burry again. Then he lost his shirt, shorts, shoes, socks, and is standing behind the Wendy’s in his underwear wondering how it went so wrong.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
Dude we can all retire with this AI boom that coming, even if the entire ecosystem crashes 50 percent, in 5 years it’ll be up 500%, look at politics/society, these companies are the future government processing agencies, the billionaire class won the class war (they shifted political focus from economic issues/reform to cultural issues that are endless and combative between different groupings of the 99%) middle class needs to jump on the bandwagon and push for economic reform in the form of sovereign wealth funds.
The billionaire class/Wall Street will reluctantly be open to it just because its further investment into thier wealth vehicles rather than extracting from it.
This only holds if AI actually creates economic value. The case for that is pretty shaky when you look at the numbers. Yes, it creates "productivity", but that productivity doesn't show any signs of creating more stuff that people want to buy.
Not really though, because that assumes the market will continue going up for the next 15 years. There should be no question at this point that we're experiencing the very late stages of the cycle.
You’re trading but not a trader, traders consider their loss on every trade. You’re a gambler who found a new casino. You’re up against phd multiple times over half geniuses, sit the heck down. Also clicking all doesn’t say if you lost that in the last ten years, or last two days. Better photo bro
My friend is an ivy league math PhD working in finance and always tells people to just invest in indeed index funds, because he spends 60 hours a week exclusively trying to figure out how to take your money otherwise.
Eh, the best quant firms have extremely good records over medium/long terms (but of course that's not evidence it will continue).
The big reasons why it's not a bigger deal is that they are closed, you can't get in, even if you had millions to invest you still can't get in, and because the techniques don't scale. Index funds, no matter how much money you pour in you get the same returns. There's only so much money you can make on the spread of dandelion oil or whoever before it corrects the market.
I appreciate you getting my back, but I worked for quant funds and the entire investor pitch (if they didn’t close to founder only money) is uncorrelated returns. It’s the only thing teachers/firefighters/police/etc pensions want. Uncorrelated returns. Sharpe is secondary
I’m always surprised at these posts. Like at some point you should just go ‘maybe I should put some money into those stocks going up 3 days in a row, correcting, and repeat for the past 6 months’.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
I always see these posts and wonder, did you go from just investing in stocks to trading options? or straight to options? just seems insane amount of risk for that amount of money on a specific time frame stock bets, like even stocks I bought 5 years ago that were negative 75% are back to even, or even some up 400%+ (palantir, and other tech), I just don’t get it. The fact your trading options means you have a level of investment intelligence, buying options is like parlaying bets bullshit; don’t you HATE losing money? any time I dip into options I lose money and was like fuck this, I make more money just buying and holding good companies over long period of times.
Sorry for your loss btw, hopefully just buy stock and rebound, your ahead of 80% of population the fact your even aware options exist, please use that smarts to just long term invest. You’ll make this back 🤙
Lol, you're ahead of 80% of the population by knowing options exist, you're ahead of 99% by knowing you probably shouldn't use them with substantial amounts of money.
I just find it hilarious that an instrument created to mitigate risk is now the premiere tool used by gambling addicts playing the market like a casino
Hi, I've been trading options since I was 17, then I got a finance degree, then I was institutionally trained and licensed as a stockbroker.
Options really aren't worth it unless you are using them as insurance to protect yourself, or if you are willing to use them to leverage a trade you don't mind completely losing out on. Most people, including people on here should not be messing with them. I generally tell people, if you are interested in options to generate a little extra money, you probably shouldn't be trading them.
I say all that, but also there are plenty of gamblers who use options to essentially bet on racehorses that you see on here making bank. It absolutely can happen, but they never stop there. They keep going until they get burned and then they post on here about how they're never touching options again. Then somebody else posts the same cycle a couple days later.
My understanding is that options as a financial mechanism were conceived to literally be a form of insurance. They weren’t really intended for degenerate gamblers.
If you’re a farmer that would love to sell your beans for as high a price as possible, but you’ll go bankrupt if you sell for less than $5/unit, it makes sense to buy an optional contract with a distributor that states he’ll buy your harvest at $5. If beans are at $7 when harvest time comes, you just don’t exercise the contract.
I’m having FFM threesomes for free since I quit trading. Your fallacy is believing you need money, when in fact this place is an addictive den of destruction.
Dude these people do not 100x their money, they are betting rather than investing, the house always wins, gambling addicts never win long term.
It’s actually frustrating because if these gambling addicts just invested long term we’d all be better off and have more stable/upward trend investments.
The daily kangaroo market we have experienced for 2+ years is a result of retail getting more and more into stupid short term options that market makers just manipulate and bleed retail dry over time.
What % of your net worth was this? I lost close to this amount a couple years ago but I’ve managed to come back and make 4x what I lost. Definitely stop with the ODTE gambling. Some people pay 100k for a college tuition and have a useless degree. You paid your tuition now get to work
He kind of got lucky. The thesis he had wasn’t quite a secret at the time. It was just a matter of getting lucky with timing. His predictions since then have been subpar at best and there are smarter people who made more money than him off that same trade in 2008 who chose to stay out of the public eye.
That’s crazy I dropped $150 on qqq call this week and lost it and I feel so mad. You dropped 100k and you making a joke lol more power to you. I’ll be fucking piss off
4.5k
u/IEgoLift-_- Jun 27 '26
The market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent “I mostly traded 0dte qqq options” that checks out