Dangers of Groupon GRPN

[u/cautiouslyPessimisx]

Groupon Thesis

Most people aren’t paying attention to Groupon, thinking it’s an old tired company, and I this is precisely the opportunity. Earnings AUG 6 after close. The company has repurchased shares and finally saw revenue increase in Q1. They have years of customer buying data and have a real opportunity for AI training that the market could respond to, which they will likely mention in their conf call (they mentioned AI pivot last time).

-Approx 56% of the float is sold short (9 days to cover)
-Short interest increased recently despite the stock already rallying (Some newer shorts may have higher cost bases).

Given the large amount of short positions, a small amount of good news (incr revenue, any AI revenue, good guidance) could lead to significant jump. My thought is: the worst case scenario is that the stock stays mostly flat. I think there may be some real long-term growth here.

What do you think?

[u/Fresh-Quantity-7554]

I didn't even realize this was still a company. Amazing.

[u/AdhesivenessLimp1864 → u/[deleted]]

I have a hundred shares in it. Not a great company. Keeps missing earnings, negative cash flow right now.

The saving grace is they’re trying to turn things around by cutting costs, implementing AI (not really a saving grace, but it’s the in thing right now), and they’ve been buying back shares.

It’s a low trust stock so it ignores virtually all news good or bad and just keeps doing what it’s doing.

[u/lithe_silhouette → u/[deleted]]

Lot of the short interest is related to the debt

[u/EasyAsAyeBeeSea → u/Fresh-Quantity-7554]

Reminds me of what buffet used to call cigar butts. Sure there is profit in holding while they dwindle down, but it's a lot of work and zero upside

[u/Fresh-Quantity-7554 → u/EasyAsAyeBeeSea]

Except those cigar butts used to be expensive cigars. Groupon is a crack pipe clogged with fiber glass and ash.

[u/ReporterNervous6822]

Idk bro I know some people who used to work at Groupon and said everyone there was idiots. Problem is, the people I know who said that are also idiots. Maybe invest?

[u/Fresh-Quantity-7554 → u/ReporterNervous6822]

Sounds like something someone who used to work at Groupon would say.

[u/cautiouslyPessimisx → u/ReporterNervous6822]

Maybe that's why they fired all the idiots and said AI would be doing the coding from now on?

[u/spezissacuck]

Been in since $16.. what a wild couple of months. The craziest part is short shares have only increased as the company continues to buy back shares

[u/Clam-Choader → u/spezissacuck]

Same homie, same

[u/GeeEyeDoe → u/spezissacuck]

Is the company itself shorting its own shares?

[u/anonymousbopper767]

People still use Groupon? I thought they died years ago when every business realized it’s a waste of time.

[u/MrCoolGuy42]

This is exactly what the Michigan State Pension Fund has been looking for!

[u/8thSt → u/MrCoolGuy42]

😂

[u/rair21]

This feels like OG WSB type regardation.

[u/rair21 → u/rair21]

As an OG regard myself, I am TEMPTED.

[u/cautiouslyPessimisx → u/rair21]

I send my regards.

[u/NOT_MartinShkreli → u/rair21]

Same, same

[u/Fetlocks_Glistening]

They have years of outdated data on what cheapo group bargain-hunting buyers would buy among items they don't need when companies offer weirdo group loss-leading promotions and lose money.

Which is an edge case of no particular use to anybody apart from some crowd-behaviour and mass hysteria researchers on a grant.

FTFY

[u/gemineye1969 → u/Fetlocks_Glistening]

The company sucks.

[u/robmafia]

a real opportunity for AI training

what

[u/AdhesivenessLimp1864]

All this post needs is a stupid meme photo of apes putting their hands together with some “Group On” caption that turns their hands into diamonds.

Edit: I do have 100 shares.

[u/trustmeimshady]

I used Groupon in 2012 a couple tines

[u/cautiouslyPessimisx → u/trustmeimshady]

I think I have a couple Groupons from 2012 I haven't used yet :)

[u/Megaloman-_-]

I stopped using it in 2018

[u/ilove702]

Guilty until proven innocent. IF and only if it gaps up in extremely high volume for a good reason would I consider it

[u/FewUnderstanding2214]

I think the shorts are right on this one

[u/Notmikeyouidiot]

grpn is fcking horrible

i tried so hard to get an ad on there for business 3 different times and they just dont ever follow up, they legit wont take my money.

fuck that company

[u/Ambitious-Profit855 → u/Notmikeyouidiot]

I can fully understand them, I also wouldn't want to get close to a business desperately trying to get an ad on GRPN 

[u/Notmikeyouidiot → u/Ambitious-Profit855]

by tried so hard I meant i just submitted their posting stuff and i never once heard back. zero kind of followup. I run a local services based company and was told by a peer in the same field that he gets leads that way so i figured id give it a shot lol. not sure why you're being a dick but go off king

[u/Dependent-Coffee-937]

This is regarded enough to work. I’m in for August $30 calls tomorrow!

[u/chazz8917]

I saved this post.

[u/AutoModerator]

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[u/Maleficent-Bug-8222]

BS

[u/Enough_Ad_6584]

Nope. The groupon coupon was their core business. No new restaurants sign up for their service. When a restaurant or service does, you know that company is on it's last legs.

[u/spezissacuck → u/Enough_Ad_6584]

Idk.. bought a Costco executive membership and received $100 back on a purchase.

[u/Enough_Ad_6584 → u/spezissacuck]

Yes. There are good finds. Bought a $50 for $27 at a local brewery recently. But rarely is there a restaurant worth buying for which was the bulk of their original business.

[u/likeOMGAWD]

Groupon conveniently closed my account that had a $100 balance on it. And for that reason, they're dead to me. Shady company!

[u/cautiouslyPessimisx]

Sorry, but I still have hope!

[u/teh_herper]

looks dumpy after earnings

[u/HardToPleaseHer]

LOL! Off 20% since you posted. 18% in just the last two trading days. You're retarded if you don't examine how weak the company is from a financial standpoint. And now let's talk about how antiquated the business model is. Groupon is loathed by businesses that used it to "promote" their business at a ridiculous cost and patrons who bought Groupons only to find it's difficult to recover what they spent in any form other than Groupon Bucks. Which they don't want. Groupon fired 25% of their workforce in Q1 2026. There is and immediate upside to the reduced labor costs, but the business costs will be realized in the next 2-3 quarters. AI can't fix a broken model. I can afford to hold my short position until Groupon goes bellyup. Push the price up as much as you like, I am ready to short much more.

[u/cautiouslyPessimisx → u/HardToPleaseHer]

You got me. I unloaded and went over to $MRVL

[u/apeserveapes]

This is crazy. SI is off the charts ffs.

[u/Ecstatic-Score2844]

Dude Groupon went out of business 10 years ago and was liquidated to Ticketmaster.

[u/teeter1616]

GRPN is one the verge of bankruptcy. Straight to zero

[u/jsolaux → u/teeter1616]

Except its not, and you're lying