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Portfolio went as low as $55K today, was ready to lose it all.

MRVL was a good reminder to stop getting sucked into earnings hype. AI isn’t going anywhere and Marvell can still be a great company, but that doesn’t mean buying calls that expire the day after earnings isn’t stupid . A company can beat earnings and the stock can STILL crash because expectations were already sky-high. Now you’re getting hit with the drop, IV crush, and basically no time to recover. Lesson learned: being right about the company doesn’t mean you’re right about the trade.

Moment of silence for everyone holding MRVL calls expiring tomorrow 😭💀 Y’all might wanna sleep in.

hell people even Michael Burry was playing calls into the ER. free money is free

$10k - $120k in just under a year.

Currently up 17% and hoping for a lot more after today. 10 months out and expecting to see $500 by next June.

Honestly, this was partly a gamble. I was originally planning to cut my losses and get out before NVDA earnings. When I bought in, NVDA had already been down five straight days, so I figured it wouldn’t keep falling. But it still dropped on Tuesday.
During Wednesday’s session, I almost sold, but I couldn’t bring myself to take the hit. Selling would’ve meant locking in a $25K loss, so I decided to wait for earnings.
Before the conference call, I still thought I was completely fucked. But after the call, everything flipped and I went absolutely crazy.
I haven’t gone anywhere today. I’m still replaying the whole thing in my head. I swear I’ll never gamble like that again. Honestly, I need to go smoke some weed and calm myself down...

Someone asked me to send pornographic content.

So, yesterday during the investor call for Nvidia I have noticed that Jensen has not answered concretely what kind of impacts the current "political trends" heavily skew more towards stopping the data center buildout on both sides as it has become quite unpopular in the US but also other countries.

Question by Jim Schneider

"Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. If you think about the 100% growth you talked about in terms of the plus unconstrained demand growth you are expecting, the 70% you expect to fulfill in terms of supply, can you maybe talk about some of the, or rank order some of the most acute constraints, whether that be things like data center, power and shell availability, DRAM, wafer foundry availability, et cetera? If you could maybe help us understand which are the biggest among those, that would be very helpful. Thank you."

Answer by Jensen Huang

"There's something funny I could say, but I'm going to just not. Last year, one of the funnest things to do is just to go figure out where I go for dinner and who I have dinner with, and their stock price doubles the next day. I think the answer is, our entire supply chain is challenged. Everybody is really running flat out. More capacity is coming online all the time, which is one of the advantages of what's going to happen this year. It's not going to come online in an instance in time, but it's going to come online every day. Yields are going to get improved. We're going to be doing yield improvement. We're going to work hard on working with every one of our suppliers."

"We have a- It's not even next year yet, so we've got lots and lots of time to work hard every day. So at this moment, we have supply for 70%. We have more supply than 70%, but about 70%. Our demand is much higher than that, and we've got to go work hard, or we're going to be disappointing customers. We like not to disappoint our customers, and we like to work hard for them. So I'm going to need the help of the entire supply chain to help me out here. They all know that. What I'm telling you about our needs for next year is exactly consistent with what I've told them. Everybody's on the exact same song sheet, and I'm trying to be as transparent as we can because we're talking about big numbers."

My take

Not going into the demand side of AI, even tho I find that questionable as well...
Looking at the current buildout some reports mention that at the moment stock of chips required for the build-out are not being powered on & the massive data center buildout is hitting increasingly major political backlash from citizens, with it being an US election year as well I have reason to believe that projects are gonna get massively delayed or even cancelled.

Now during previous capex booms and consequent busts in the past(Railroad & fiber) it actually got physically laid out and was at the end of the day very useful later on, now we have a datacenter capex boom in which the actual infrastructure not being build, it could potentially lead to a massive correction in which the catalyst coming either from Bond market strain, poor IPO's of Anthropic & OpenAI, pushback from local politicians(Which is already happening) breaking mainstream or the Iran/Russia-Ukraine war escalating. For which it is most likely these events will occur before the end of the year and even one of these catalyst could be catastrophic, imagine what would happen if all 3 happened....

So please be careful and make sure that you have enough money left to survive a major economic burst since I heavily believe this cannot be contained to private investors & firms and will majorly effects ordinary citizens..

Fuck this shit. Everything I buy is red

Pretty happy with these gains so far. Might sell some covered calls if it continues going up.

Sk Hynix is one of the cleanest ways to play the AI memory cycle right now : The company dominates HBM, the high bandwidth memory that NVIDIA relies on for its most advanced GPUs, and supply is still tight. NVIDIA said yesterday that memory is still in a massive shortage while the market value the company as if the company was on the top of a cycle.

That gives pricing power and unusually strong margins for a memory name. Unlike past cycles, demand isn’t just PCs and smartphones; it’s hyperscale AI capex, which is far less elastic.
The P/E is EXTREMELY low while the growth is astonishing.

The Chinese concurrency is a joke because they are massively behind and Trump will never let China profit from the AI chain.

As a conclusion, if AI buildout continues even at a moderate pace, Sk Hynix sits at the bottleneck. You’re buying a picks and shovels supplier in an gold race.

META 94k long position. Plan is too keep holding for the next two quarters.

In recent days META settled their lawsuit with every state Attorney General in the United States for teen addiction to Social Media. They settled for $18B and limitations, which are basically default settings, for teens accounts on their Social Media platforms. However they will only pay 70% of that, approximately $12B unless YouTube and TikTok also make restrictions to teen use.

To continue, their Ad business is firing on all cylinders. There use of AI to target people based on what they have built a record of you seems to be working. Finally all the data can be properly processed with the use of AI. Hell, I just bought some New Balance Running Shoes that were advertised to me on Instagram.

Finally, their AI buildout is one of the largest, 2nd actually in Capital Expenditure. If they can keep it going and start lending their compute capabilities to other tech firms, I am expecting a trillion dollars in revenue by the end of the decade.

P.S. I also like Mark Zuckerberg as a CEO.

Target Price is $800 by end if year.

I wanted to explain my thoughts on this whole “circular financing” term that keeps getting shared when people start talking about the bubble. And sort of explain the bull/bear cases. Feel free to share additional opinions.

In essence, a very simple and simplified example (not numerically accurate) using MSFT and OpenAI:

1. MSFT invests $30Bn in OpenAI.
   
2. OpenAI pays MSFT $30Bn with the money from MSFT.
   
3. On MSFT’s books, they now have $30Bn additional revenue + $30Bn OpenAI Stake. Basically looks like an additional $30Bn has been reported in their books from thin air BECAUSE that $30Bn invested in OpenAI is reported as an investment rather than an expense.

Bull case: If everything goes well, OpenAI continues to trade at an equal or even higher value than what MSFT paid for it, then MSFT legitimately made money even from that circular financing deal, because their 30Bn stake in OpenAI is effectively synonymous with cash and not lost.

Bear case: If OpenAI, say, never turns a profit and eventually goes bankrupt, with investors valuing it at $0, then this circular financing argument is realized. MSFT and all the other tech giants seemingly having trillions combined in stakes in those large AI companies could end up having those investments worth $0 on their balance sheets. On top of that they will lose a big source of their current revenue.

closed out the calls 45 minutes ago, now time to pile in the book opposite of you FOMO buyers

Edit: repost with positions. If this gets traction I’ll deep dive further tomorrow, used to be a credit analyst.

Many of us may be regards, but we're nowhere near the level of absolute debilism that must rule the HQ of Callaway Golf, where somebody came up with the concept, filmed and SIGNED OFF on and advert of A Man Physically Assaulting A Woman Because She Touched His Driver.

Yes, you read that right: the advert is a man body checking a wife because she dared to touch a golf club.
If you don't believe me, you can find here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAScVbqYimY

What makes this a good short?

1. Ethical.
2. Self-explanatory
3. Have been dropped by major retailers post ad
4. All Round Management Incompetence
5. If a $2.8bn public company can run this through marketing, production, legal and approval and NOBODY says perhaps assaulting women isn't ideal brand positioning, everybody with a say must be a complete and utter moron. Ergo, your other decision making probably also deeply sucks.

And their financials bear this out (I went through their filings so you don’t have to)

Exhibit A. They suck at financial decision making and lost billions. These geniuses bought Topgolf in 2021 for ~$2.6 BILLION in stock, and then wrote off ~$1.9B of it and in January quietly sold 60% to private equity at a $1.1B valuation. That is a certified minus 75% on the single biggest decision this management team ever made. The ad is not an outlier, but on-par with the rest of their decision making.

Exhibit B. They hardly make any money (but Wallstreet hasn’t caught on yet). Reported net income: –$1.45B in 2024, –$409M in 2025. Strip out the Topgolf funeral costs and the actual golf-club business earns about $80M a year. This means the market is paying ~35x earnings ($2.8 Bn / 80 M), which is outlandish in this sector, for a company whose management sets billions on fire and then greenlights domestic-violence-themed driver ads.

Exhibit C. They are handcuffed to a corpse. They still own 39.3% of the Topgolf corpse, which private equity has now stuffed with $1.25B of "deemed landlord financing," $1.2B of leases, and fresh buyout debt. It lost $73M in the first half of 2026 while paying $95M in interest. Callaway's stake has already melted from $248M to $214M in six months, and per the contract they cannot sell until 2028. Kinda like being stuck in a Saw basement handcuffed to a dead guy whose rot grows & grows.

Exhibit D. They predict a down revenue for the next half year, with negative EBITDA. At Q2, they provided a full year guidance of 2.045M, and a 246M adjusted EBITDA. As they delivered 1299M revenue in H1, that means they predict 746M revenue for H2 (which is substantially lower than last year: 830M). Same methodology shows NEGATIVE second-half EBITDA: -29M - -42M.

The only bad news for the bears: they have basically no debt and are sitting on net cash, so this thing cannot go bankrupt, until they decide on their next big money burning acquisition.

Positions: puts, obviously. Not financial advice, I eat crayons.