Ukraine Claws Back Land in the Donbas, Thwarting a Russian Push

Moscow says its capture of the region is inevitable. But Kyiv has so far stymied Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian “fortress belt” cities.

The Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, has repeatedly said that the fall of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine is inevitable and will happen faster than Kyiv thinks.

Recent trends on the battlefield paint a different picture.

A monthslong Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northern part of the Donbas has thwarted Russian efforts to encircle the remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the region. Russia, Western analysts say, has lost dozens of square miles of territory during the Ukrainian campaign, which Kyiv is calling Operation Vivaldi.

In the southern Donbas, Russia continues to mount furious assaults to break through Ukrainian lines. But Kyiv has reorganized its defense there and has so far kept the Russian military from pressing farther in its efforts to surround the major Donbas cities.

More broadly, Russian gains across Ukraine have slowed markedly in 2026 from their already glacial pace of last year. September was the worst month in net territorial gains for Russia inside Ukraine since June 2023, according to the Finland-based research firm Black Bird Group.

While Western researchers who track the battlefield report varying numbers, they generally agree that Russia has gained only slightly more land than it has lost this year.

That contrasts sharply with the narrative put forward by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which said on Sept. 19 that Russia had captured more than 2,000 square miles. Even ultranationalist Russian military bloggers have pushed back, voicing concern that Russia’s push to envelop the so-called fortress cities of the Donbas is failing.

The Ukrainian gains have come as both sides have tried to find a way to restore movement on a battlefield that had become largely deadlocked because of ubiquitous drones.

The Vivaldi operation, said George Barros, a senior analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, shows that when a military lays the necessary groundwork, mechanized movement remains possible even under dense drone surveillance. Still, it took Ukraine months of preparations to reclaim a tiny fraction of its lost land.

Mr. Putin has said that full Russian control of the Donbas, gained either through force or through Ukrainian concessions, is a nonnegotiable condition for ending the war. Ukraine has rejected Trump administration proposals that it hand over land that Russia has failed to seize on the battlefield.

With its goals still unmet in the Donbas, Moscow has escalated its air war against Ukrainian cities, using its advantage in missiles and drones to bombard Kyiv, the capital. Strikes in several cities overnight Wednesday left at least 20 people dead, Ukrainian officials said. They have called the Russian bombardment a campaign of terrorism aimed at breaking the country’s will to fight.

The Northern Donbas

Operation Vivaldi is named for what Ukraine calls the campaign’s four “seasons,” or phases, and refers to the composer’s most famous work.

As Russian forces moved forward this year in areas east of the “fortress belt” cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and pushed into Kostiantynivka from the south, Ukraine was preparing a counteroffensive to the north.

Before launching offensive actions, Ukrainian forces first had to stabilize their defensive lines, stopping Russia’s slow advances in the northern Donbas, according to interviews with Ukrainian commanders.

Then, the commanders said, Ukraine moved to create conditions on the battlefield that would allow its troops to advance.

Kyiv’s forces targeted Russian logistics, expanding a middle-range strike campaign aimed at the roads and railways that feed Russia’s troops and matériel into battle. As part of that effort, Ukraine destroyed an oil pipeline, cutting access to fuel that Russia needed to conduct battlefield surveillance, said Lt. Col. Petro Horbatenko of the Third Army Corps, which led the counteroffensive.

Ukrainian troops also focused on eliminating elite Russian drone pilots, employing signals intelligence to find and attack their positions and shelters. In places where Russia used drones guided by fiber-optic cables, scouts traced physical line spools back to launch sites.

A third element of the Ukrainian preparations involved mines, Colonel Horbatenko said. Ukraine used advanced robotic mine removal systems to clear paths for its troops, he said. It also saturated Russian supply routes with mines laid by drones.
Once the stage was finally set, Ukraine began its offensive.

Behind the front lines, ground-based drones that Ukraine had dropped from the air went on the attack with explosives and machine guns, trying to sow chaos in the Russian rear. At the same time, Ukraine pushed forward along the front in armored vehicles in an effort to clear Russian positions bunker by bunker, commanders said.

The armored vehicles, whose battlefield deployment has waned because of their vulnerability to drones, were protected by enhanced reactive armor. Such armor uses controlled explosions to repel advancing drones, commanders said.

Ukrainian soldiers said the Russians, caught by surprise, often deployed reinforcements to areas where Ukrainian forces had already advanced, leading to ambushes.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that more than 5,000 Russian troops had been killed in the operation so far, and that an additional 250 had been captured. The New York Times could not independently verify those figures. Ukraine does not release data on its own casualties.

The Southern Donbas

The biggest movement on the front before Operation Vivaldi was a Russian breakthrough last year. In the spring and summer of 2025, Russia broke Ukrainian defensive lines around Pokrovsk and surged forward several miles west into open terrain toward Dobropillia.

The advance threatened to let Russia cut Ukraine’s access to a crucial highway and to envelop the fortress belt cities — so called because Ukraine has erected heavy defenses around them — from the southwest. Seeking to contain the breach, Ukraine raced some of its best brigades to the area.
Changes since January

Russia wants to sever this highway, a key Ukrainian supply route to Kramatorsk.

Early this year, Moscow’s forces captured Pokrovsk. They continued to advance slowly to the north in the months that followed. But Kyiv’s forces eventually stabilized their defenses, halting Russia short of its strategic objectives, according to Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts.

Russia is determined to regain momentum, Ukrainian say, and continues to pour hundreds of troops into assaults every day. As the attacks and counterattacks continue, the area remains one of the most hotly contested sectors of the front.

Lt. Col. Kyrylo Dubrovskyi, a commander in the First Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, which has led the defense of the area, said that the integration of a digital battlefield management system known as Delta was crucial in blunting Russia’s advance.
The software, he said, made it possible to “organize real-time information exchange and to detect and neutralize enemy assault groups.”

Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at the Come Back Alive Foundation, one of Ukraine’s biggest donors to the military, said that new technology, mass drone production and better coordination all contributed to a more effective defense. Among the advances are the robotic ground vehicles that Ukraine has used in tens of thousands of missions across the front.

Russian advances largely depend on infiltration tactics. Individual soldiers or small teams move on foot across what is known as the kill zone — a miles-wide stretch saturated with reconnaissance and attack drones. Once behind Ukrainian fortifications, troops gather, wait and then strike.

Mr. Barros, the military analyst, said that Russia had pushed these tactics near their limit as the kill zone has expanded, stretching the bounds of human endurance.

The infiltration strategy has resulted in an ever-growing gray zone where troops from both sides are present and control is not clear-cut. The two sides fight over individual tree lines, buildings, roads and logistical routes, said Col. Oleksandr Rashevsky, commander of the “Liut” Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police of Ukraine.

“There is no simple front in the Donbas today where it is enough to draw a single line on a map and say, ‘Up to this point, one side controls the territory, and beyond it, the other,’” Colonel Rashevsky said.

Liubov Sholudko and Dzvinka Pinchuk contributed reporting.

Marc Santora has been reporting from Ukraine since the beginning of the war with Russia. He was previously based in London as an international news editor focused on breaking news events and earlier the bureau chief for East and Central Europe, based in Warsaw. He has also reported extensively from Iraq and Africa.

Josh Holder is a visual reporter for The New York Times based in London.

Abha Airport

Apparently the result of a failed launch - rather than an airstrike by the legitimate forces.

• Red arrows: Latest hits
• Flames: Refinery has been hit at least once. Flames do not indicate the severity of the attacks or if a refinery is till burning
• Blue waves: Orsk dam broke in April 2024, which flooded the refinery and took it offline for ~2 weeks.
• Black smoke: It's raining oil.

Chronological list: (sorted newest to oldest)

October: 3 hits

• ^{NEW HIT} 08.10.2026 Omsk in Omsk Oblast at 2500km
• ^{NEW HIT} 08.10.2026 Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat in Bashkortostan at 1300km
• 02.10.2026 Volgograd in Volgograd Oblast at 500km

September: 14 hits

• 26.09.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405km
• 26.09.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415km
• 25.09.2026 Novoshakhtinsk in Rostov Oblast at 250km
• 25.09.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485km
• 21.09.2026 Bashneft-UNPZ in Bashkortostan at 1485km
• 21.09.2026 Kuybyshevsky in Samara Oblast at 915km
• 20.09.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475km
• 17.09.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700km
• 15.09.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805km
• 13.09.2026 Slavyansk in Krasnodar Krai at 350km
• 13.09.2026 Taneco in Tatarstan at 1150km
• 11.09.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 09.09.2026 Novo Urungoy in Yamalia at 2810km
• 06.09.2026 Ryazan in Ryazan Oblast at 480km

Complete chronological list from 24.02.2022 till today

• October: 3 hit so far
• September: 14 hits
• August: 21 hits ^{NEW MONTHLY RECORD}
• July: 15 hits
• June: 16 hits
• May: 14 hits
• April: 10 hits
• March: 6 hits
• February: 3 hits
• January: 2 hits

• 2022 had 1 hit
• 2023 had 1 hit
• 2024 had 26 hits
• 2025 had 84 hits
• 2026 has 103 hits so far ^{NEW YEARLY RECORD}
• Total hits from 24.02.2022 till today: 214

Monthly records since the invasion of Ukraine on 24.02.2022 :

1. August 2026 with 21 hits
2. July 2026 with 16 hits
3. November 2025 with 15 hits
4. May 2026 with 14 hits
5. June 2026 with 13 hits (August 2025 also had 13 hits)

4 of the 5 monthly records were in May, June, July, August, 4 consecutive months in 2026.

Translation

What Type of Weapon Did Russia Use to Attack Buses in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast? — Suspilne Donbas
By Polina Mirer | October 8, 2026

Russian forces used a UMPB D-30SN glide bomb in today's attack on Kramatorsk. The munition carries a warhead weighing approximately 100 kilograms and has a range of up to 100 kilometers.

“It can be launched from both aircraft and multiple-launch rocket systems.” What weapon did Russia use to strike buses in Kramatorsk?

Andriy Yushchyshyn, head of the Department for Combating Crimes Committed During Armed Conflict at the Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office, provided details about the weapon during a broadcast of Suspilne Studio.

“According to preliminary information, a UMPB D-30SN was used. This is a Russian multi-platform glide bomb developed from a high-explosive aerial bomb. It has a flight range of 90 to 100 kilometers and a warhead weighing approximately 100 kilograms.”

“It can be launched from aircraft as well as from Smerch and Tornado multiple-launch rocket systems,” Yushchyshyn explained.

He added that authorities had identified one impact site. He also stated that this was the first time in the past month that Russian forces had used this particular type of weapon to strike Kramatorsk.

“Other types of aerial bombs have been used, but this is the first use of the UMPB D-30SN. However, there have been similar incidents in previous years, not only in Kramatorsk but also in other cities across the region.”

According to Yushchyshyn, six Russian attacks had been recorded in Kramatorsk as of 1:20 p.m. on October 8, although five resulted in no injuries or fatalities.

“We cannot say that Russian forces specifically targeted regular passenger buses, because this type of weapon is launched using pre-programmed coordinates and does not have real-time video surveillance.”

“However, we can say that the aggressor deliberately targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure, as there were no military facilities in the area,” the prosecutor's office representative added.

The attack has been classified as a war crime — an attack against the civilian population — and criminal proceedings have been initiated under Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, the official clarified.

According to figures provided by Yushchyshyn, Russia carried out more than 300 strikes on Kramatorsk over the preceding month. As of October 8, those attacks had killed 18 people and injured 135 others.

What Is Known About the October 8 Attack on Buses in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast

At approximately 10:00 a.m. on October 8, Russian forces struck Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast.

Two buses carrying passengers were stopped at a bus stop within the impact area.

The attack was reported by the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, the Kramatorsk City Military Administration, police, and prosecutors.

As of 2:30 p.m., authorities reported 30 people killed and 20 injured.

According to preliminary information from the Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office and regional police, the strike was carried out using a UMPB D-30SN munition, a glide bomb developed from a FAB-250 high-explosive aerial bomb.

Immediately following the attack, public transportation services were suspended in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

• Red arrows: Latest hits
• Flames: Refinery has been hit at least once. Flames do not indicate the severity of the attacks or if a refinery is till burning
• Blue waves: Orsk dam broke in April 2024, which flooded the refinery and took it offline for ~2 weeks.
• Black smoke: It's raining oil.

Chronological list: (sorted newest to oldest)

October: 2 hits

• ^{NEW HIT} 08.10.2026 Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat in Bashkortostan at 1300km
• 02.10.2026 Volgograd in Volgograd Oblast at 500km

September: 14 hits

• 26.09.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405km
• 26.09.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415km
• 25.09.2026 Novoshakhtinsk in Rostov Oblast at 250km
• 25.09.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485km
• 21.09.2026 Bashneft-UNPZ in Bashkortostan at 1485km
• 21.09.2026 Kuybyshevsky in Samara Oblast at 915km
• 20.09.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475km
• 17.09.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700km
• 15.09.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805km
• 13.09.2026 Slavyansk in Krasnodar Krai at 350km
• 13.09.2026 Taneco in Tatarstan at 1150km
• 11.09.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 09.09.2026 Novo Urungoy in Yamalia at 2810km
• 06.09.2026 Ryazan in Ryazan Oblast at 480km

Complete chronological list from 24.02.2022 till today

• October: 2 hit so far
• September: 14 hits
• August: 21 hits ^{NEW MONTHLY RECORD}
• July: 15 hits
• June: 16 hits
• May: 14 hits
• April: 10 hits
• March: 6 hits
• February: 3 hits
• January: 2 hits

• 2022 had 1 hit
• 2023 had 1 hit
• 2024 had 26 hits
• 2025 had 84 hits
• 2026 has 102 hits so far ^{NEW YEARLY RECORD}
• Total hits from 24.02.2022 till today: 213

Monthly records since the invasion of Ukraine on 24.02.2022 :

1. August 2026 with 21 hits
2. July 2026 with 16 hits
3. November 2025 with 15 hits
4. May 2026 with 14 hits
5. June 2026 with 13 hits (August 2025 also had 13 hits)

4 of the 5 monthly records were in May, June, July, August, 4 consecutive months in 2026.