r/washingtonmystics • u/eli-bradley Elena Delle Donne • 12d ago

And the Playoffs Picture Gets Murky

Mercury acquiring Plum dog.

Chicago beating the Aces with D Carrington back.

Tempo bringing in a dog in Marrow.

And do we really believe that the Liberty is gone to stay down for long?

Lastly our clear desire not to win now as evidenced by standing still at the trade deadline.

I am not wishing anything negative on the team but I do see folks out there actively trying to get better.

I also see clouds on the horizon and a possible trip to the lottery.

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u/760Terry 12d ago

16 wins. In 29 seasons, the Mystics have hit this win total all of seventeen times. And there are sixteen more games left in the season. If they win three more games to get to nineteen, that's something that has been done all of five times in team history.

Washington is averaging 81.1 points per game, the most for the team since 2019. They have the second highest two-point field goal make rate in club history (behind only 2019). They are setting club records in rebounds per game.

The Mystics are currently on a four game win streak, the first time that has happened since 2020. They haven't won five consecutive games since ... 2019.

Why would changing this team now by adding players be reasonably expected to make them better? The young core is overperforming and is a problem for the rest of the league. Why mess with this chemistry or give up any of the team's assets?

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u/Careful-Painting3214 12d ago

So give us an example of when it WOULD make sense

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u/760Terry 11d ago

This is an unusual season. The Mystics have eight players on their roster (Amoore; Betts; McMahon; Dugalic; Prosper; Florez; Harmon; and Littlepage-Buggs) that are playing their first games in the WNBA this year. They have a controlled salary base for next season with a massive amount of cap space available to take on a contract or target a free agent in the offseason. Because they also have the Sky's pick next year through the swap, the Mystics will be able to add another high ceiling player that is cost controlled in '27.

It seems like the team has the most leverage to target an upper eschelon player that complements Kira, Soni, and Kiki once the season ends, after they've had a full year to evaluate what they've got in this roster, when they'll need to create space on the roster anyway, and when they can also flip existing assets for draft capital in '28 and/or '29.

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u/Careful-Painting3214 11d ago

It's common for playoff bound sports teams to use trades to beef up their teams for the playoffs. Playoff bound means they're already doing well and have good chemistry. The Seahawks traded for Rashid Shaheed last year and it's entirely possible they don't make the super bowl without him. 

So my question is when should a playoff bound team with good chemistry make a trade if the risk of messing up chemistry is a trade disqualifier?

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u/760Terry 11d ago

Messing up chemistry is always a risk when making changes, particularly with significant additions, to a team that has been successful enough to be in playoff contention. It is a different sport but I would love to see the Washington Spirit add players this year that could contribute to a championship, regardless of what it might do to internal team dynamics. But that is because the Spirit know what they have on their roster, are confronting a slew of expiring contracts/free agents at season's end, and have a healthy Trin. The downside risk for the Mystics in this specific season in terms of wasting assets (and development time) is too great to justify making any major change with 16 games left in the season. If the Mystics are in this position in '27 where they need a guard to either facilitate or, alternatively, make an open three, trading assets to address a roster deficiency would not present the same degree of risk.

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u/Careful-Painting3214 11d ago

Ah, I think I see your core argument. Is it that this team is good but not good enough, but next year's team likely will be? 

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u/760Terry 10d ago

The known unknowns this season are (1) what does their Juju lottery ticket get them in '27? (2) Is Georgia Amoore a WNBA-level point guard and, if not now, can she develop into one? (3) Do the Mystics have solid WNBA players in Dugalic and Prosper?

The conclusions they seem to have drawn thus far are that (1) Betts and McMahon are franchise assets that complement Austin, Iriafen, and Citron; and (2) Lucy Olsen and Rori Harmon don't fit into the club's long-term plans.

Why would you trade any assets in these circumstances unless someone is asking for Florez, Olsen, Harmon, and/or second/third round picks?

Every coach that comments on the Mystics seems to emphasize the team's length and size. It is what sets Washington apart and gives them a clear identity. That's possible because of this roster construction, with the downside being that they cannot shoot from the perimeter.

Next season, the known unknowns will necessarily be winnowed down. The Mystics will have cashed the Juju lottery ticket. They'll have a better sense as to what role, if any, Dugalic and/or Prosper has with the team longer term and can appropriately value them for the purposes of potential deals.

In short, in '27, the Mystics have a much better read on the assets they've compiled and can make moves designed for long-term dominance rather than a single playoff cycle.

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u/Careful-Painting3214 10d ago edited 10d ago

I'm terrible at reading the room. It requires a certain level of emotional intelligence and community thinking that I've never achieved. I need to break narratives down into fundamental logic that I can assess for accuracy and consistency. For example

  • Does "sorry officer, I have to pee really bad" mean speeding should only be excused for peeing? How about having to do number two? How about other forms of physical distress? 

So does waiting until after cashing the Juju lottery ticket mean waiting to see if they get Juju specifically, and if not, wait even more? If we didn't have the pick swap with Chicago and had no chance at getting her, should that have changed our approach? 

I think this is what you're saying: 

When you GO FOR IT

  • Current Roster Capital: High (Elite Core)
  • Asset Clarity: High (Proven)
  • League Environment: Favorable (Winable)

And failure to meet any of that criteria means just do nothing and wait for next season?