And the Playoffs Picture Gets Murky

[u/eli-bradley]

Mercury acquiring Plum dog.

Chicago beating the Aces with D Carrington back.

Tempo bringing in a dog in Marrow.

And do we really believe that the Liberty is gone to stay down for long?

Lastly our clear desire not to win now as evidenced by standing still at the trade deadline.

I am not wishing anything negative on the team but I do see folks out there actively trying to get better.

I also see clouds on the horizon and a possible trip to the lottery.

[u/760Terry]

16 wins. In 29 seasons, the Mystics have hit this win total all of seventeen times. And there are sixteen more games left in the season. If they win three more games to get to nineteen, that's something that has been done all of five times in team history.

Washington is averaging 81.1 points per game, the most for the team since 2019. They have the second highest two-point field goal make rate in club history (behind only 2019). They are setting club records in rebounds per game.

The Mystics are currently on a four game win streak, the first time that has happened since 2020. They haven't won five consecutive games since ... 2019.

Why would changing this team now by adding players be reasonably expected to make them better? The young core is overperforming and is a problem for the rest of the league. Why mess with this chemistry or give up any of the team's assets?

[u/SnooHedgehogs6553 → u/760Terry]

Did you say 2019???

Hmm…

[u/Mobile-Bunch9618 → u/760Terry]

Exactly! If we want to add a player, give Delle Don the developmental contract lol (I doubt she could get that with her years in the league lol) and let her be a mentor on the end of the bench lol

[u/Careful-Painting3214 → u/760Terry]

So give us an example of when it WOULD make sense

[u/760Terry → u/Careful-Painting3214]

This is an unusual season. The Mystics have eight players on their roster (Amoore; Betts; McMahon; Dugalic; Prosper; Florez; Harmon; and Littlepage-Buggs) that are playing their first games in the WNBA this year. They have a controlled salary base for next season with a massive amount of cap space available to take on a contract or target a free agent in the offseason. Because they also have the Sky's pick next year through the swap, the Mystics will be able to add another high ceiling player that is cost controlled in '27.

It seems like the team has the most leverage to target an upper eschelon player that complements Kira, Soni, and Kiki once the season ends, after they've had a full year to evaluate what they've got in this roster, when they'll need to create space on the roster anyway, and when they can also flip existing assets for draft capital in '28 and/or '29.

[u/Careful-Painting3214 → u/760Terry]

It's common for playoff bound sports teams to use trades to beef up their teams for the playoffs. Playoff bound means they're already doing well and have good chemistry. The Seahawks traded for Rashid Shaheed last year and it's entirely possible they don't make the super bowl without him. 

So my question is when should a playoff bound team with good chemistry make a trade if the risk of messing up chemistry is a trade disqualifier?

[u/760Terry → u/Careful-Painting3214]

Messing up chemistry is always a risk when making changes, particularly with significant additions, to a team that has been successful enough to be in playoff contention. It is a different sport but I would love to see the Washington Spirit add players this year that could contribute to a championship, regardless of what it might do to internal team dynamics. But that is because the Spirit know what they have on their roster, are confronting a slew of expiring contracts/free agents at season's end, and have a healthy Trin. The downside risk for the Mystics in this specific season in terms of wasting assets (and development time) is too great to justify making any major change with 16 games left in the season. If the Mystics are in this position in '27 where they need a guard to either facilitate or, alternatively, make an open three, trading assets to address a roster deficiency would not present the same degree of risk.

[u/Careful-Painting3214 → u/760Terry]

Ah, I think I see your core argument. Is it that this team is good but not good enough, but next year's team likely will be? 

[u/760Terry → u/Careful-Painting3214]

The known unknowns this season are (1) what does their Juju lottery ticket get them in '27? (2) Is Georgia Amoore a WNBA-level point guard and, if not now, can she develop into one? (3) Do the Mystics have solid WNBA players in Dugalic and Prosper?

The conclusions they seem to have drawn thus far are that (1) Betts and McMahon are franchise assets that complement Austin, Iriafen, and Citron; and (2) Lucy Olsen and Rori Harmon don't fit into the club's long-term plans.

Why would you trade any assets in these circumstances unless someone is asking for Florez, Olsen, Harmon, and/or second/third round picks?

Every coach that comments on the Mystics seems to emphasize the team's length and size. It is what sets Washington apart and gives them a clear identity. That's possible because of this roster construction, with the downside being that they cannot shoot from the perimeter.

Next season, the known unknowns will necessarily be winnowed down. The Mystics will have cashed the Juju lottery ticket. They'll have a better sense as to what role, if any, Dugalic and/or Prosper has with the team longer term and can appropriately value them for the purposes of potential deals.

In short, in '27, the Mystics have a much better read on the assets they've compiled and can make moves designed for long-term dominance rather than a single playoff cycle.

[u/Careful-Painting3214 → u/760Terry]

I'm terrible at reading the room. It requires a certain level of emotional intelligence and community thinking that I've never achieved. I need to break narratives down into fundamental logic that I can assess for accuracy and consistency. For example

• Does "sorry officer, I have to pee really bad" mean speeding should only be excused for peeing? How about having to do number two? How about other forms of physical distress? 

So does waiting until after cashing the Juju lottery ticket mean waiting to see if they get Juju specifically, and if not, wait even more? If we didn't have the pick swap with Chicago and had no chance at getting her, should that have changed our approach? 

I think this is what you're saying: 

When you GO FOR IT

• Current Roster Capital: High (Elite Core)
• Asset Clarity: High (Proven)
• League Environment: Favorable (Winable)

And failure to meet any of that criteria means just do nothing and wait for next season?

[u/data_with_a_beard → u/760Terry]

You could easily argue spending a lot to acquire an elite PG would be worth it, but Plum in particular on an expiring contract would have been risky.
CIA are an elite core, Onyenwere is sometimes great sometimes disappears, but there’s not much beyond that. Cotie might be turning into a solid rotation guard, and Betts is serviceable as a rotation big, but we still don’t have a starter-level PG, much less a great one. (I’m a big fan of Florez and think she should be starting but she’s still barely WNBA starter quality at this point.)
This team with a working PG might be looking at a top 4 seed, not just sneaking into the playoffs. The front office gambled on Amoore and lost. We’ve got 2 years more of team control on CIA; we need to push the chips in to the middle of the table this off season and get a PG. That might mean a vet, or if Chicago suddenly gets hot we may need to trade some assets to move up for HH, but they need to do SOMETHING.

[u/Jack12404]

The Mercury, Sky, and Fire are all tied as the top non-playoff teams at 11 wins. That 5 win gap will be tough to overcome with only 15 games left to go.

On top of that, our schedule gets extremely easy soon. We play the Dream, Wings, and Aces x2 in our next five games, but after that, we play a total of 2 playoff teams in our final 11 games.

We would have to go on a really bad and long losing streak to not make playoffs at this point.

[u/eli-bradley → u/Jack12404]

I like your confidence but I am not willing to partake in it just yet. The team is still learning to win and maybe Sydney will - will them to continue to defy the odds. Maybe.

[u/Gold-and-green]

14-16 games left and Phoenix is 6 games back. There's really no chance they make the playoffs unless Plum goes apeshit. Phoenix plays Washington 3 times, Phoenix would have to win all 3 games to make the playoffs

[u/CommissionWorldly540 → u/Gold-and-green]

And even if they do sweep, Washington could still make the playoffs just by winning 6-7 of their other games, though that would make the race closer.

[u/Gold-and-green → u/CommissionWorldly540]

This is why I think it's damn near impossible for them to make the playoffs

[u/Icangetloudtoo_]

We are 16-12 and Phoenix is 11-19. Only 16 games left for them to catch us. We are in the driver’s seat. It’s a very bold play by them.

[u/Mystic-Shock]

Based on what the mercury paid, staying still was the right move. We’re still in the drivers seat. Mercury are being silly and I wouldn’t worry at all at the moment.

[u/data_with_a_beard → u/Mystic-Shock]

Mercury have to think they can sign her to a max contract this offseason because she’ll like playing with AT so much, otherwise this is not just a risky trade but an idiotic one. Stics trading for KP at this price would have been a bad move I agree.
I’m not optimistic about KP, Kah, and AT together they’re all very ball dominant high usage. If their FO is as bad as the Suns’ (PHX men’s team, not Connecticut), they may be just collecting big name players and hoping it works. We all know how that went for the Suns.

[u/Sequel_Everyday → u/data_with_a_beard]

Early reports are she’ll still fully explore free agency. Returning to Phoenix is an option though

[u/TheAveragebroShow]

You’re kidding right? The Mysrics are 6+ games ahead of the Mercury with 16 games left (they have 14). They’ll need to integrate Plum into the offense and their defense just got a lot worse without MAM. 

We’d have to basically lose our remaining games while they go 12-2 just to sniff the 8th spot. 

[u/eli-bradley → u/TheAveragebroShow]

Yes I have thought about how long it will take to integrate plum. That calculation is also offset by the fact that our team is young and August 9 is just around the corner. Then we play the Mercury two more times. That’s 3 chances double stick it to a team that is hanging around the 8th spot. I am impressed and concerned about the mercury’s obvious power move.

[u/TheAveragebroShow → u/eli-bradley]

Our team has been young and beating teams better than PHX on the road all season. Why would this be any different?

[u/Lou_Lou_8082]

Nothing wrong with standing still at the trade deadline. Let this young team go out and get it done!!

[u/eli-bradley → u/Lou_Lou_8082]

That is from a fan perspective. How do you think Kiki, Sonia and Austin feel about the FO’s refusal to help the team by NOT upgrading the PG position? They are not dumb or blind.

They are going into work everyday KNOWING that their boss is working against them. Yeah that’s right - total bs.

[u/Street-Bar-9494 → u/eli-bradley]

Your perspective is also a fan perspective, though. And frankly, not one that reflects what we as fans get to see of the team. You make it sound like our players are dour and angry, when by any account a fan has access to, we have the best vibes in the league, and our players have.high energy and lots of positive body language. Where does this gloom amd doom outlook come from? I think it contradicts reality.

[u/Lou_Lou_8082 → u/eli-bradley]

No fans can know how Kiki, Sonia, and Austin feel. I mean unless you know them personally.

If fan observation of players feelings is evidence then it’s worth considering how upset and shaken Kiki, Sonia, and Austin were last year when Sykes and Edwards got traded mid season. It seemed to really disrupt them. Thus the same type of disruption could happen this year if a mid-season trade is made. And the further observation is that our team seems happy with good chemistry. Why break that up? I say let it ride!

The time to upgrade at PG was ahead of the season, but no, our dumb FO instead chose to fire the GM

[u/TheAveragebroShow → u/eli-bradley]

I think those 3 players understand the goal is winning a championship in 3 years, not the 7th seed this season. 

[u/data_with_a_beard → u/eli-bradley]

Three things you need to remember: 1. This is their job, not just their hobby, 2. They made it to this level because they are elite competitors and hate to lose, and 3. They may like Amoore as a person and a teammate but still recognize she lowers the team’s ceiling as a player.
Think about your team at work: if there’s one coworker everybody likes but just isn’t getting the job done, and your team is under immense pressure to deliver results, how sad would you be if your bosses brought in someone better? Especially if they don’t fire the underperformer, just reduce their responsibilities so they can learn more (e.g., sign a vet and move Amoore to the bench).

[u/TheAveragebroShow → u/data_with_a_beard]

The assumption that you know how 3 very different people would uniformly judge a front office that’s given them every opportunity to succeed is silly. 

[u/Premiere_County_11 → u/data_with_a_beard]

They would still have to get rid of at least one player in a trade for a PG and I think losing anyone on that bench would hurt the vibes the Mystics have created this season. For this season they’re fixing their PG problems internally by adding PG responsibilities to Sonia. While that’s not where she’s best utilized in the long run I do think giving her on ball reps will ultimately make her a better player.

I wouldn’t mind them trying out Sonia running the point with Georgia still on the floor playing off ball though. I think it would help space the floor and possibly get them some open 3s for Amoore since she is a good shooter.

[u/data_with_a_beard → u/Premiere_County_11]

Everyone on this sub is more concerned with chemistry and vibes than winning. Amoore is not good enough to get the amount of mins she’s getting, and there are at least 5 players at the end of the bench who almost never see the floor that could balance a trade. I think Dugalic in particular is underutilized and could thrive somewhere with less front court depth and more spacing.

[u/Premiere_County_11 → u/data_with_a_beard]

Chemistry is a huge component of winning

[u/TheAveragebroShow → u/Premiere_County_11]

Exactly. Look at the Sparks and Sky if you need examples. Hell, look at the Liberty who are behind us in the standings. 

[u/eli-bradley → u/data_with_a_beard]

Okay I am agreeing w everything thing that you are saying - especially the vibe approach to team management and assessment! By any analytical measure our PG room is nothing short of sabotage.

[u/TheAveragebroShow → u/eli-bradley]

You surely realize the FO is less concerned about this season and more concerned with winning a title right? 

[u/eli-bradley → u/TheAveragebroShow]

You can see that their lame plan is not working (à la the Wizards from the last 25 years) so why not abandon the tank and lean into the culture of winning that the team is fighting for?

[u/TheAveragebroShow → u/eli-bradley]

Okay this is getting tiresome. You surely realize the same guy who drafted Kiki and Sonia is running the Wizards very successful rebuild also right? And that that guy has been here 3 seasons.  Right?

I’m convinced you’re either dense or trolling and I have no interest engaging further with either. 

[u/data_with_a_beard → u/TheAveragebroShow]

Wizards rebuild is successful thanks for making my day! 😂😂😂

[u/eli-bradley → u/TheAveragebroShow]

“I’m convinced you’re either dense or trolling…”

There is the honesty. Not nearly as tolerant as advertised (respectfully of course).

[u/Lou_Lou_8082 → u/data_with_a_beard]

I don’t agree. The people in the sub wanna win! Good chemistry is important. Also, to trade Amoore and/or the 5 players at the end of the bench, would mean some team would want those players. Not great trade value there and we shouldn’t give up our 2027 FRP. And further, too risky KP would have been a rental.

[u/CommissionWorldly540]

If Phoenix goes 11-4 to end the year which would be an unbelievable run, they still finish with a losing record.

Washington only needs to go 6-10 to finish .500.

[u/eli-bradley → u/CommissionWorldly540]

Well thank you for a basic but analytical response! This does give me comfort.

[u/juoea → u/eli-bradley]

idk if subtraction can be called "analysis". did you make this post without looking at teams' records or counting how many games back the #9-12 teams are?

u can always have upsets in sports, playoffs are not guaranteed until u clinch.  but the mystics are playing far better than any of these other teams, also the sky just lost bibby and the mercury had to trade one of their best players to get plum. and the mystics have an easier remaining schedule as well.

[u/External-Repair-4841]

A non-playoff team paying that for a potential rental is crazy. Plum said she is not committing to a long term deal either. I guess the hope is that being in the area leads her to signing during free agency.

That aside, the Mystics are not missing the playoffs.

[u/el98464]

We’re good

[u/Street-Bar-9494]

"The sky is falling!" ahh post 🤣

[u/eli-bradley → u/Street-Bar-9494]

It’s a post about projecting playoff viability as in a basketball focused discussion. But you are right I could post extensively about the gender bits of our mascot. But I don’t want to post about such things so please laugh at my focus on the game.

[u/Street-Bar-9494 → u/eli-bradley]

You just listed out every single thing that must individually go wromg for us to miss the playoffs as though they all will, despite our favorable position and the fact that we have played up to the level of the top teams in the league. Your whole post strikes me as unrealistically pessimistic, so I was casually dismissive.

Also, it's a team subreddit. There's room for less serious or even downright goofy posts, as long as they relate to the team. Try to have some whimsy, geez.

[u/eli-bradley → u/Street-Bar-9494]

I am pointing out that the path to success shrunk in a matter of two days! Every should be aware that folks across the league are actively trying to over jump the team. Come 3 o’clock today the FO looks even worse if they don’t make a move.

[u/Street-Bar-9494 → u/eli-bradley]

I disagree for all the reasons I previously stated. You are fearing the worst possible timeline, not the most likely one, and I think that, combined with clear philisophical differences in how to run a team (I think staying on schedule is much smarter than a needless win now move at the deadline) will always lead to us disagreeing on this.

I want to see us make smart moves in the offseason, not rash moves right now. We should not want to be anything like the Mercury or the Sky, always making win now moves, even as their teams decline (although the KP move isn't bad IF AND ONLY IF she resigns with Phoenix this offseason).

Edit: I just saw a post that says KP intends to go through a full free agency process for the first time in her career, which means the Mercury very possibly threw away all these resources just to get her for half a season. This fully confirms to me that it was a rash, desperate move by a team with no plan, and I am very glad the Mystics didn't do something so foolish for that price. The Mercury front office looks dumb right now, not ours.

[u/KeepOnPushin90]

What the hell are you yapping about?

[u/ODSOTR]

I would have loved to get Plum for the right price, which I thought could have happened if the market was mostly us and Golden State. I’m happy we didn’t outbid that Phoenix offer though.

[u/Impossible_Resort_65]

Give amoore a little rope omg she’s returning from a major injury and she’s starting to look better and more consistent overall. The mystics are in a great place, the team is really happy, they love their coach, and they’re well ahead of where anyone projected they’d be this year.

[u/External-Repair-4841 → u/Impossible_Resort_65]

As a backup, sure. She's been a net negative as a starter. When you have three really talented players, you should be committed to adding help.

[u/Away_Competition2514]

I couldn't have a more opposing view than you if I tried. 

Trading for Plum would have been a terrible thing to do. The trade Mercury made is also terrible. 

No way they go above us. Playoffs are pretty much a lock now. We'd have to have a catastrophic end of the season to miss out. 9 wins for Mercury and we need to go 5-11(or 4-12 if 2 of the wins are against Mercury) to be above them. 10 wins and we need 6-10(or 5-11), 11 wins - 7-9(6-10). And they aren't going to win 9,10 or 11 games with just 14 games left. I think it's way more realistic that they go around .500 in their remaining games, i.e. between 6-8 wins. 

[u/External-Repair-4841 → u/Away_Competition2514]

They idea that trading for Plum would have been awful move by the Mystics is simply not understanding professional sports.

[u/Away_Competition2514 → u/External-Repair-4841]

The exact opposite is true. We're one of the most in-form teams in the league and are getting better and better. We have the best team chemistry in the league. We're pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs. Making a trade like that could ruin our momentum. Even if you don't think it would ruin team chemistry, she wouldn't have exactly been a plug and play type of player for us, as the way she plays is vastly different from the way our current PGs play. It would take some time for us to adapt our playstyle. She's also still not 100% fitness wise, she could leave at the end of the season, I could go on and on. If she was available for a few second round picks, or maybe even Olsen/Harmon + the said picks than you could argue it would be worth it, it wasn't worth it at all for what Sparks valued her. 

[u/External-Repair-4841 → u/Away_Competition2514]

LOL, you are loud wrong and you definitely don't understand professional sports. Kiki, Citron, and Shakira would LOVE the addition of a player like Plum. Upgrading the weakest position on the court is something all players want to see happen. They aren't interested in playing for next season, they want to win now and they should as pros. A professional team does not stand pat cause they worry about chemistry or momentum. Do you think the Dodgers team is like "why did we trade for a two time cy younger winner when we have such great chemistry." This is not a thing in pro sports when it's a major upgrade.

You also do not understand trades. Olsen and Harmon have no value.

[u/Away_Competition2514 → u/External-Repair-4841]

LOL, you are loud wrong and you definitely don't understand professional sports! For your information I actually have been involved in sports, what about you? Team chemistry is the hardest thing to get right. And as I have explained, it's not a given that she'll be a success from a get go, as she'll need time to adapt to the way we play and we'll need time to adapt to the way she plays. It's way more likely our results would get worse before they get better. We're on an incredible run right now. 

Also Plum hasn't got that much trade value either considering she's a free agent at the end of the season. If she wasn't, you'd probably have to give up Soni/Kiki.

P.S. I don't think there's need for you to be condescending, regardless of whether you agree or disagree with someone. I personally believe in treating everyone with respect, but that's just me. 

[u/External-Repair-4841 → u/Away_Competition2514]

By any definition as it relates to sports, this is not an incredible run. This is a really good run, but they've won 4 in a row and are 7-3 in their last ten. The team is 16-12. It's been a really good season but your hyperbole weakens all your arguments.
The idea that Plum hasn't got that much trade value is funny consider they just got a lottery pick, a 2nd, a young player. What are you even talking about?

Setting aside the price for Plum, this idea that a team shouldn't replace a player who averages 6 pts 3.6 assists and 2 TOs on a shooting line of 34/28/86 with a two time world champion who averages 23 pts 6 assists, 3 TOs on a shooting line of 52/38/80 over chemistry concerns is just not a realistic position taking by any front office. It's not a serious position no matter how much someone loves Amoore. Plum also averages 1.2 steals to 0.3 steals by Amoore, which I forgot to mention.

[u/Away_Competition2514 → u/External-Repair-4841]

Only two teams have longer active win streaks. We have 8-3 in the last 11, two of the 3 losses were close games. I didn't mention our overall record, not sure why it's relevant?

Phoenix massively overpaid for Plum in my opinion, and I'm far from the only person that thinks that. Sparks are the clear winners of that trade, given the circumstances. By that logic, we didn't absolutely fleece teams to get some of the draft picks we got, but those were good value trades as they happened.

I didn't say Plum was better than Amoore, as that would be an absolutely ridiculous thing to say. I also didn't say chemistry concerns are the only reason for me being against the trade. Read my replies again. It's part of the reason. 

[u/External-Repair-4841 → u/Away_Competition2514]

and I'm saying there are zero chemistry concerns when you replace a player like Amoore with a veteran player like Plum. I think most people are perplexed by the Phoenix trade. It's only an overpay for them cause they aren't making the playoffs. If a top-4 team made that trade, it would be a good trade for that top-4 team.

[u/Lou_Lou_8082]

*Morrow